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SPAC: ZAKA (10F/12P) - Tropical Cyclone
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HURAKAN
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SPAC: ZAKA (10F/12P) - Tropical Cyclone
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Last edited by HURAKAN on Sat Feb 05, 2011 10:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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A SMALL AREA OF SHALLOW, FLARING CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 21.2S 167.5W, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO,
FAR REMOVED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE WEST. A 040821Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH 25+ KNOT WINDS BUFFERING THE EASTERN EDGE. THESE WINDS DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLCC TO CLOSE OFF THE CIRCULATION. SUPPORTING CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AND TOO WEAK TO YIELD A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ATOP THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
MOTION AND THUS DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
NEAR 21.2S 167.5W, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO,
FAR REMOVED FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE WEST. A 040821Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH 25+ KNOT WINDS BUFFERING THE EASTERN EDGE. THESE WINDS DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLCC TO CLOSE OFF THE CIRCULATION. SUPPORTING CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AND TOO WEAK TO YIELD A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ATOP THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
MOTION AND THUS DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re:
Rod Hagen wrote:How firm is the consensus on the track of this one if it gets going?
Much as I love New Zealanders we could do without another one in Australia for at least a couple of weeks!
I think Australia is safe from this one!
The EURO also has a system developing northwest of WA but moves it to the southwest and away from the continent.
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WWPS21 NFFN 050300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/0426 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F [1008 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.2S 169.5W AT
050000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES.
OREGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/0426 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F [1008 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.2S 169.5W AT
050000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES.
OREGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
[The EURO also has a system developing northwest of WA but moves it to the southwest and away from the continent.]
I noticed that one looking like it might get up a couple of days ago when checking out the Euro longer range projections for Yasi and wondered whether it might become a "second issue" that could become troublesome. West would indeed be good, even if WA is the one state that Yasi itself doesn't seem to have affected much so far and ought to cop its fair share! WA cyclones have a bit of a habit of doubling back though, I'm afraid. Let's hope this one doesn't.
Lots of hot water on either side of Australia at present unfortunately.
Thanks for the reassurance re Invest 93, though, Hurrikan. There have been some media outlets down here who are already turning it into "next weeks disaster".
I noticed that one looking like it might get up a couple of days ago when checking out the Euro longer range projections for Yasi and wondered whether it might become a "second issue" that could become troublesome. West would indeed be good, even if WA is the one state that Yasi itself doesn't seem to have affected much so far and ought to cop its fair share! WA cyclones have a bit of a habit of doubling back though, I'm afraid. Let's hope this one doesn't.
Lots of hot water on either side of Australia at present unfortunately.
Thanks for the reassurance re Invest 93, though, Hurrikan. There have been some media outlets down here who are already turning it into "next weeks disaster".
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The media always likes to hype everything, real or fake situations.
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Crostorm
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- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (10F/93P)
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/2241 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.5S 174.6W AT
052100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION RAMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/2241 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.5S 174.6W AT
052100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION RAMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (10F/93P)
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
164.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 173.3W, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. SEVERAL FACTORS NOW INDICATE THE
DISTURBANCE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE. THE TROUGH
ALOFT THAT HAD BEEN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED NORTH. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DUE TO THE ACCLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. A 051600Z AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT
CROSS SECTION HINTS AT A DEVELOPING WARM CORE WITH A SMALL WARM
ANAMOLY CENTERED AT AROUND 40K FEET. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ALSO
SUGGESTS A TROPICAL OR WARM CORE SIGNATURE AS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINS
TO BAND NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE WELL-DEFINED WITH FLOW APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AS IT WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM THE EAST. THE WESTERN
SECTORS OF THE LLCC ARE, LIKE YESTERDAY, MUCH WEAKER THAN THE
OTHERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
164.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 173.3W, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. SEVERAL FACTORS NOW INDICATE THE
DISTURBANCE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE. THE TROUGH
ALOFT THAT HAD BEEN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED NORTH. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DUE TO THE ACCLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. A 051600Z AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT
CROSS SECTION HINTS AT A DEVELOPING WARM CORE WITH A SMALL WARM
ANAMOLY CENTERED AT AROUND 40K FEET. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ALSO
SUGGESTS A TROPICAL OR WARM CORE SIGNATURE AS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINS
TO BAND NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE WELL-DEFINED WITH FLOW APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AS IT WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM THE EAST. THE WESTERN
SECTORS OF THE LLCC ARE, LIKE YESTERDAY, MUCH WEAKER THAN THE
OTHERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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