SPAC: ZAKA (10F/12P) - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (10F/93P)
What will be the name if this develops into a TC?
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Ad Novoxium
- Category 1
- Posts: 348
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2008 2:12 am
WWPS21 NFFN 052200
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/2241 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.5S 174.6W AT
052100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION RAMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/2241 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.5S 174.6W AT
052100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION RAMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 6:22 am
- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
Re: SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (10F/93P)
The media always likes to hype everything, real or fake situations.
they are still at it today, I'm afraid, Hurakan.
See Queensland's "Courier Mail" at http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/quee ... 6000749085
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Crostorm
- Category 5
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- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (10F/93P)
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6S
173.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT SHALLOW, A 060126Z AMSRE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE ANALYZED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A 051600Z AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT CROSS SECTION
HINTS AT A DEVELOPING WARM CORE WITH A SMALL WARM ANOMALY CENTERED
AT AROUND 40K FEET. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. DUE TO THE SEVERAL FACTORS NOW INDICATING THE DISTURBANCE
IS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE AND DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070530Z.//
NNNN
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/0753 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 23.1S 175.4W AT
060600 UTC. TD 10F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN FLANK. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 061400 UTC
Feb 06/0753 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 23.1S 175.4W AT
060600 UTC. TD 10F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN FLANK. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 061400 UTC
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Its a system now IMO and probably has been a 35kts system for the last 24hrs as well from the looks of the images on this thread.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
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WTPS11 NFFN 061200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/1413 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAKA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 176.1W AT
061200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL
MILES ELSEWHERE.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 28
DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CYCLONE
STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIROMENT AND COOLER SST. DVORAK ASSESMENT BASED
ON WRAP OF 0.7 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0 PT=3.0 MET=3.0. FT
BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 26.3S 178.0W MOV SW AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 28.9S 179.6W MOV SW AT 14 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 31.8S 179.7E MOV SSW AT 14 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 35.3S 179.3W MOV S AT 16 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ZAKA AROUND 062000 UTC
OR EARLIER.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/1413 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAKA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 176.1W AT
061200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL
MILES ELSEWHERE.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 28
DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CYCLONE
STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIROMENT AND COOLER SST. DVORAK ASSESMENT BASED
ON WRAP OF 0.7 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0 PT=3.0 MET=3.0. FT
BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 26.3S 178.0W MOV SW AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 28.9S 179.6W MOV SW AT 14 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 31.8S 179.7E MOV SSW AT 14 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 35.3S 179.3W MOV S AT 16 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ZAKA AROUND 062000 UTC
OR EARLIER.
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Re: SPAC: ZAKA (10F/93P) - Tropical Cyclone
Kind of shallow convection but very good structure no surprise that it was upgraded.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
766
TXPS41 PHFO 061740
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1740 UTC SUN FEB 06 2011
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
B. 06/1700Z
C. 25.5S
D. 177.3W
E. GOES11
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS
G. IR/ANIMATION
H. REMARKS...FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO USE CURVED BAND PATTERN ATTM.
AND CONSTRAINTS DO NOT ALLOW FOR USE OF EMBEDDED CENTER YET THOUGH
IT CURRENTLY WOULD YIELD A DT OF 4.0 WITH MG SURROUNDING SHADE. THUS
WILL BASE FINAL T ON PAT AND MET OF 3.5. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX
ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF 25S.
I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL
$$
TXPS41 PHFO 061740
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1740 UTC SUN FEB 06 2011
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
B. 06/1700Z
C. 25.5S
D. 177.3W
E. GOES11
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS
G. IR/ANIMATION
H. REMARKS...FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO USE CURVED BAND PATTERN ATTM.
AND CONSTRAINTS DO NOT ALLOW FOR USE OF EMBEDDED CENTER YET THOUGH
IT CURRENTLY WOULD YIELD A DT OF 4.0 WITH MG SURROUNDING SHADE. THUS
WILL BASE FINAL T ON PAT AND MET OF 3.5. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX
ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF 25S.
I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL
$$
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