SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

water vapor image of the storm over Madagascar

[HURAKAN]

Bingiza vs Ivan

[KWT]

Wow pretty much in the exact same spot!

Looks like Bingiza is really slackening at the moment, getting much larger now it appears.

[HURAKAN]

circulation is poor shape

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 320
WTIO30 FMEE 141846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/14 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 47.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 080 SE: 320 SO: 170 NO: 080
34 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/15 06 UTC: 16.9S/45.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 17.7S/44.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 18.5S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 19.4S/43.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/02/17 06 UTC: 20.3S/43.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 21.3S/43.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/02/2011 18 UTC: 24.1S/44.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
120H: 19/02/2011 18 UTC: 27.6S/45.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
EX-BINGIZA IS WEAKENEING AS IT PENETRATES FURTHER INLAND BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPEND ALL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF MALAGASY
AND ALSO ORGANIZES INTO PERIPHERICAL BANDS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
FROM 10S TO 20S.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ACROSS MADAGASCAR AND COME BACK OVERSEA ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON AND AFTER TAU 24, BETWEEN BESALAMAPY AND MORONDAVA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEEN FAVOURABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION.
FURTHER FORECAST INTENSITY IS STRONGLY LINKED TO THE DURATION OVERSEA AND
TO AN EVENTUAL NEW LANDFALL AND CURRENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A MAINLY TO TOTALLY OVERLAND TRACK AND
OTHER AVAILABLE ONES FORECAST A MAINLY OVERSEA TRACK.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK RESULTS OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 47.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 47.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.4S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.0S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.2S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.9S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.5S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.5S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 47.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANA-
NARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS LOST OVER 75 PERCENT OF ITS CONVECTION AS IT DRAGGED
ACROSS THE ISLAND'S MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION DEPICTING A CLEAR AREA OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 141652Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DIVERGENCE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS THE STR ADJUSTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S WILL EMERGE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY TAU 36 AND MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY, FUELED BY THE
WARM WATERS AND ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE ISLAND. TC BINGIZA WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
96, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR'S RUGGED TERRAIN AND EXPOSURE
TO STRONG WESTERLY VWS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH ECMWF ON THE RIGHT OF
AND GFS ON THE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. THE FORMER ANTICIPATES THE
STEERING STR TO REMAIN STRONG ALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
THE LATTER UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS THE VORTEX DIRECTLY INTO THE RIDGE.
THIS TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Much less agressive forecast from JWTC, really all depens how far offshore it ends up getting but I'm not really expecting huge recovery, maybe just slow re-strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 989
WTIO30 FMEE 150022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/15 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 45.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 16.9S/43.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 17.9S/42.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 18.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6S/42.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/17 12 UTC: 20.4S/42.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/02/18 00 UTC: 21.4S/43.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/02/2011 00 UTC: 24.5S/44.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
120H: 20/02/2011 00 UTC: 28.0S/44.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
BINGIZA HAS ACCELERATED AND SHOULD BE BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
EARLIER THAN REVIOUSLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE BACK OVERSEA WITHIN 6 TO 12
HOURS NEAR BESALAMPY.
IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS AND
REGULARILY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
FURTHER FORECAST INTENSITY IS STRONGLY LINKED TO THE DURATION OVERSEA AND
TO AN EVENTUAL NEW LANDFALL.
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A
MAINLY TO TOTALLY OVERLAND TRACK AND OTHER AVAILABLE ONES FORECAST A
MAINLY TO TOTALLY OVERSEA TRACK.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK RESULTS OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 451
WTIO30 FMEE 150702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/15 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 45.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 555 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 17.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 19.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 21.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 22.8S/43.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/02/2011 06 UTC: 25.7S/43.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 20/02/2011 06 UTC: 28.8S/44.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EX-BINGIZA RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. FIX AT 15/00Z WAS PROBABLY TOO MUCH WEST.
EX-BINGIZA IS TRACKING WEST-WOUTH-WEST AT ABOUT 9KT.
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS WEAK, BUT IT IS INTENSIFYING OVER SEA IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A GOOD MONSOON INFLOW.
ACTUAL FORECAST ESTIMATES A COME BACK OVER WATER TODAY AROUND 15Z IN
THE
VICINITY OF BASALAMPY. BY 36 TAU, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTH
-WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. BEYOND
48
TAU, IT SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN COAST
OF
MADAGASCA
R, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMING THE MAIN PILOT
OF
THE SYSTEM STEERING FLOW. ACTUAL FORECAST IS MORE WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS
ONE, AND ACCORDING TO THAT, SYSTEM SHOULDN'T MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL ON
THE
SOUTH-WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. BUT THIS TRACK AFTER 72 TAU IS
RATHER
UNCERTAI
N.
OVER WATER, SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FOR
REGENERATION : GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, SST
>30OC
. BUT UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE A LIMITANT FACTOR FOR
RAPID REGENERATION BY 24TAU.
BEYOND 24TAU AND TRHOUGH FRIDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP
TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. AFTER FRIDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD
DETERIORATE (WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW,
STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH).=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 45.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 45.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.7S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.9S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.5S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 45.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S
(BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANA-
NARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS STILL OVER LAND.
MORE RECENTLY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FORM WEST
OF THE LLCC IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF LEE SIDE LOW GENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 15/06Z OBSERVATION FROM
NEARBY MAJUNGA MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR (FMNM), WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 17 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS APPROXIMATELY 997
MB. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK WEST INTO THE EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER
TIME AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, WHICH WILL PARALLEL THE WESTERN COASTLINE.
THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MORE MODEST THAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DISPARITY. BY TAU 72 THE
TC WILL TURN BACK INLAND AS THE STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
EAST WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL
OF YET ANOTHER. DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR OVER LAND BEFORE PASSAGE BACK
OVER WATER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Bingiza and 98S

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 140
WTIO30 FMEE 151200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 44.9E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 17.6S/43.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 18.5S/43.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 19.4S/43.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/17 12 UTC: 20.6S/43.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2011/02/18 00 UTC: 21.7S/43.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/18 12 UTC: 22.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/02/2011 12 UTC: 25.3S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
120H: 20/02/2011 12 UTC: 27.0S/47.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EX-BINGIZA RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.
EX-BINGIZA MAY TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT WITHIN THE LATEST
HOURS.
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS WEAK, BUT IT IS INTENSIFYING OVER SEA IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A GOOD MONSOON INFLOW.
ACTUAL FORECAST IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS OUTCOMES AND
ESTIMATES A COME BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY 12TAU AROUND 16/15Z
SOUTH OF BASALAMPY, THEN A TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING N
ORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BECOMING THE MAIN PILOT OF ITS STEERING FLOW FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND TOLIARA BY 48 TO 72 TAU.
OVER WATER, SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
REGENERATION : GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, SST
>30oC. BUT UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE A LIMITANT FACTOR
FOR RAPID REGENERATION.
THE PRESENT FORECAST ALSO LIMITS REINTENSIFICATION AT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SECOND LANDFALL.
BEYOND NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A MOVEMENT
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD OF THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION AND FOR A COME BACK OVER
WATER SOUTH OF MADAGASACR AT A WEAK INTENSITY.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 421
WTIO30 FMEE 151822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (ex BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/15 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 44.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /D / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 926 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 18.1S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 18.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/02/17 06 UTC: 19.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 20.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 22.2S/43.7E OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/18 18 UTC: 23.8S/44.1E OVERLAND.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/02/2011 18 UTC: 25.9S/46.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 20/02/2011 18 UTC: 28.1S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EX-BINGIZA RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.
EX-BINGIZA MAY TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT WITHIN THE LATEST
HOURS.
CONVECTION OVER LAND IS WEAK, BUT IT IS INTENSIFYING OVER SEA IN THE
WESTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER, WITH A GOOD MONSOON
INFLOW.
ACTUAL FORECAST IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS OUTCOMES AND
ESTIMATES A COME BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IMMINENT SOUTH OF
BASALAMPY, THEN A TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE SY
STEM AND BECOMING THE MAIN PILOT OF ITS STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND TOLIARA BY 48 TO 72 TAU.
OVER WATER, SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR
REGENERATION : GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, SST
>30oC. BUT UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE A LIMITANT FACTOR
FOR RAPID REGENERATION.
THE PRESENT FORECAST ALSO LIMITS REINTENSIFICATION AT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SECOND LANDFALL.
BEYOND NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A MOVEMENT
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD OF THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION AND FOR A COME BACK OVER
WATER SOUTH OF MADAGASACR AT A WEAK INTENSITY.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.1S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.8S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.6S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.5S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY CONFIRMS
TC 13S HAS MOVED INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND HAS STARTED TO
CONSOLIDATE. A 151511Z SSMIS SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON FMEE AND PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND A WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND ALLOWS THE STORM TO TURN
POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN AFTER TAU 48. ONCE
OVER THE RUGGED TRAIN OF SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, TC 13S WILL DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF AN OVER-WATER TRACK WITH A SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS,
FAVORING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 747
WTIO30 FMEE 161241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (EX-BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/16 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7S / 44.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1260 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 19.7S/43.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/02/17 12 UTC: 20.6S/44.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/18 00 UTC: 21.5S/44.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/18 12 UTC: 22.8S/44.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/19 00 UTC: 24.1S/45.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/19 12 UTC: 25.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 20/02/2011 12 UTC: 27.9S/45.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 21/02/2011 12 UTC: 29.7S/46.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AFTER REACHED THE SHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR THIS MORNING
NEAR BESALAMPY, LATEST FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTHWARDS
THIS MORNING AND REMAINS MAINLY OVER LAND. AT 09Z, IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR MAINTIRANO WHICH REPORTED A 995.4 HPA SURFACE PRESSURE (CORRECTED
FROM THE BA
ROMETRIC TIDE)
THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY OF THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME THAN
PREVIOUSLY. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN PILOT OF ITS STEERING FLOW DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK TAKES A MORE POLEWARDS
COMPONENT AND IS CURRENTL
Y MOVING BACK OVER WATERS BEFORE A NEW LANDFALL EXPECTED AT TAU 24 HOURS.
REGARDS THE SHAPE OF MADGASCAR COASTLINES, A SMALL VARIATION ON TRACK
COULD DELAY OR BRING FORWARD SIGNIFICANTLY THE TIMING OF THI SNEW
LANDFALL WITH CONSIDERABLE CONSEQUENCES ON THE FINAL INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME
...
INDEED, EXCEPT THE VINCINITY OF LAND, ALL FACTORS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION: SST >30oC AND WEAK WINDSHEAR NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST CALL NOW FOR A LIMITED INTENSIFICATION
ACCORDING TO A SHORTER TIME OVER WATER BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A
STRONGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
VINCINITY OF LAND EVEN AT SHORT RANGE.
SYSTEM COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR SATURDAY AND MOVE BACK
OVER WATER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
UNHABITANTS OF THE AREA BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND MOROMBE SHOULD MOITORED
CAREFULLY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.7S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.7S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.1S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.5S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS PARTLY OVER LAND. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDING FAR WEST
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MORE RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND BECOME FRAGMENTED. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NEARLY
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS A
REFLECTION OF THE POOR STATE OF CONVECTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A
151807Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOTS ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. BECAUSE THIS FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THE PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 55 KNOTS. MORE RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC MAY HAVE MOVED
COMPLETELY OVER LAND. NONETHELESS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
LONGWAVE, DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM,
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY, AND WILL FORCE THE TC BACK INLAND AROUND DAY
2 OF THE FORECAST. THE TC WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN