SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic of Bingiza over Madagascar

[senorpepr]

WTIO24 FMEE 161813
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/02/2011 AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 28/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 16/02/2011 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-BINGIZA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7S / 43.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP 300 NM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT .

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 100 NM FROM THE
CENTER REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OVERSEAS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS BY GRADIENT EFFECT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/02/17 AT 06 UTC:
20.8S / 43.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2011/02/17 AT 18 UTC:
21.8S / 43.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-BINGIZA HASCAME BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL JUST AFTER 12Z.
IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER SEA AND HAVE NOT ENOUGH TIME TO
REGENERATE UP TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE EVEN IF IT HAS GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 44.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 44.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.5S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.2S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 161617Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FRAGMENTED AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY (35 KNOTS) IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE OF 30 KNOTS BASED ON
THE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURE IN
MICROWAVE. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS (WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) FOR DEVELOPMENT,
THE CURRENT TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE COAST, RESULTING IN LESS
TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-ORGANIZE AND RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH INDICATES A LOWER PEAK
INTENSITY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL, THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC
13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WITHIN 24 HOURS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TURN INLAND AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK; THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[KWT]

Probably strengthening at a quick rate, classic thing for a system to do when they are running close to the coast, would expect it to be upto 50kts already based on what I've seen.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Morondava1]

Feb 17th
10:44 AM (Madagascar - GMT + 3)

Greetings from Morondava

I'm very new member to 'Storm' and still trying to learn the language and abbreviations used when discussing storms. Also learning to assess the current location via the photos and infrared.

That said, we live in Morondava 20°17'05"S / 44°19'03"E
Winds began around 3 AM this morning and they are on and off at the moment.
The cyclone warning system here is not the best and it's hard to get updates.

It seems at the moment there is still much activity west of us in the Mozambique Channel.

Can anyone let us know if the majority of Bingiza has past Morondava or can we expect more to come?

Thanks in advance for your assistance.
We have an internet connection at the moment!

Regards, Gary L / Morondava1

info@remoterivers.com
http://www.chezmaggie.com

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 034
WTIO30 FMEE 171246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 43.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SO: 180 NO: 320
34 KT NE: SE: SO: 080 NO: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/18 00 UTC: 22.2S/44.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/18 12 UTC: 23.6S/44.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/19 00 UTC: 25.1S/45.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/19 12 UTC: 26.0S/44.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/02/20 00 UTC: 26.8S/44.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , SUBTROPICAL.
72H: 2011/02/20 12 UTC: 27.7S/45.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , SUBTROPICAL.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 21/02/2011 12 UTC: 29.1S/47.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 22/02/2011 12 UTC: 33.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR
NEAR ANDRANOPASY AND SHOULD FRANKLY PENETRATE OVERLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT
HOURS. IT IS
STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND THEREFORE T AND CI ARE MAINTENED AT 3.0.
BINGIZA SHOULD KEEP A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVERLAND. IN FACT,
NWP
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH
A NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. ASSOCIATED RAINS SHOULD BE HEAVY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR.
REMNANTS OF BINGIZA SHOULD COME BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR
NEAR
STE-MARIE CAPE ON SATURDAY, TRACK TEMPORARILY SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DIP DOWN AGAIN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN AN EXTRATROPICAL
STRUCTURE.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... inland

[vbhoutex]

Feb 17th
10:44 AM (Madagascar - GMT + 3)

Greetings from Morondava

I'm very new member to 'Storm' and still trying to learn the language and abbreviations used when discussing storms. Also learning to assess the current location via the photos and infrared.

That said, we live in Morondava 20°17'05"S / 44°19'03"E
Winds began around 3 AM this morning and they are on and off at the moment.
The cyclone warning system here is not the best and it's hard to get updates.

It seems at the moment there is still much activity west of us in the Mozambique Channel.

Can anyone let us know if the majority of Bingiza has past Morondava or can we expect more to come?

Thanks in advance for your assistance.
We have an internet connection at the moment!

Regards, Gary L / Morondava1

info@remoterivers.com
http://www.chezmaggie.com

First of all welcome to STORM2K. Hopefully you can get some good information here when needed.

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza is located near 21.2S/43.7E, or near Morondava, Madagascar. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, gusts 50 mph. Movement is to the south at about 7 mph. Bingiza has made a second landfall across southwestern Madagascar and should begin weakening over the next few days as it remains over land. Heavy rainfall will remain possible for the next few days across western and southern Madagascar. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches, isolated 8+ inches, will be common. Locations that have received recent heavy rainfall will remain at an elevated flooding threat. High rainfall totals have been observed over the last few days across northwest and southeast Madagascar.

This is from Impact Weather, a private weather firm located in Houston, TX. that has clients worldwide and covers the tropics world wide for those clients. Hope this is helpful.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Bobo2000]

i think Bingiza will reach 55kts

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 21.2S 44.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 44.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.4S 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 44.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TRACKED
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. AS TC BINGIZA CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND, MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN