SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
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ZCZC 130
WTIO30 FMEE 131301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/5/20102011
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 52.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 287 SO: 240 NO: 212
34 KT NE: 166 SE: 166 SO: 166 NO: 166
48 KT NE: 101 SE: 101 SO: 101 NO: 101
64 KT NE: 064 SE: 064 SO: 064 NO: 064
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/14 00 UTC: 16.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 16.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 17.1S/46.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.6S/44.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2S/42.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 12 UTC: 19.8S/41.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 18/02/2011 12 UTC: 21.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ AND CI=5.5
RECENT MICROWAVES AND METEOSAT IMAGERY CLASSIC SHOWS THAT STRUCTURE HAS
CHANGE SINCE THIS NIGHT. AFTER BEEING ERODED ON ITS NORTHER PART, THE
EYEWALL HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A BROADER OUTER EYEWALL(CF AQUA 13/0949Z AND
N19 13/1030Z).
THIS MORNING WEAKENED (T=4.5 AT 0800Z) WAS TEMPORARILY.SINCE 1000Z,
SYSTEM SHOWS AGAIN A SATELLITE PATTERN NEAR T=5.5 OVER 3 HOURS BUT AT T=5
.0 OVER 6 HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HEAVY RAIN SHOULD PROGRESS OVER THE NORTH AND
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN MONDAY EARLY BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND TOAMASINA. OVER THIS
COASTAL AREA, WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVILY INCREASE AND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED
100 KM/H ON AND AFT
ER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN NEXT NIGHT UP TO 80
KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY THREATENED. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LANDFALL AREA MORE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THAN
THE ABOVE TARGETTE
D ONES SHOULD THEREFORE CONCERN BY THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK , WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 400KM TO 500 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BINGIZA'S REMNANTS SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED STAGE ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN MAHAJO
NGA AND MORONDAVA. IN RELATIONSHIP TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 131301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/5/20102011
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 52.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 287 SO: 240 NO: 212
34 KT NE: 166 SE: 166 SO: 166 NO: 166
48 KT NE: 101 SE: 101 SO: 101 NO: 101
64 KT NE: 064 SE: 064 SO: 064 NO: 064
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/14 00 UTC: 16.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 16.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 17.1S/46.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.6S/44.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2S/42.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 12 UTC: 19.8S/41.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 18/02/2011 12 UTC: 21.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ AND CI=5.5
RECENT MICROWAVES AND METEOSAT IMAGERY CLASSIC SHOWS THAT STRUCTURE HAS
CHANGE SINCE THIS NIGHT. AFTER BEEING ERODED ON ITS NORTHER PART, THE
EYEWALL HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A BROADER OUTER EYEWALL(CF AQUA 13/0949Z AND
N19 13/1030Z).
THIS MORNING WEAKENED (T=4.5 AT 0800Z) WAS TEMPORARILY.SINCE 1000Z,
SYSTEM SHOWS AGAIN A SATELLITE PATTERN NEAR T=5.5 OVER 3 HOURS BUT AT T=5
.0 OVER 6 HOURS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HEAVY RAIN SHOULD PROGRESS OVER THE NORTH AND
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN MONDAY EARLY BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND TOAMASINA. OVER THIS
COASTAL AREA, WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVILY INCREASE AND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED
100 KM/H ON AND AFT
ER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN NEXT NIGHT UP TO 80
KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY THREATENED. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LANDFALL AREA MORE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THAN
THE ABOVE TARGETTE
D ONES SHOULD THEREFORE CONCERN BY THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK , WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 400KM TO 500 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BINGIZA'S REMNANTS SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED STAGE ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN MAHAJO
NGA AND MORONDAVA. IN RELATIONSHIP TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.
NNNN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139082
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO: BINGIZA (05/13S) - Intense Tropical Cyclone
2100z JTWC Warning=100kts
They forecast reintensification after it crosses Madagascar.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 009
WTXS31 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 131704Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 14 NM CONCENTRIC
EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE INFRARED EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MADAGASCAR
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY (<30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, BASED
ON THE FACT THAT TC BINGIZA REACHED A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THEN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED AND DUE TO RECENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT, REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE TC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND RE-DEVELOP WITHIN 72 HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CHANNEL BEFORE TC 13S
RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR,
AND ECMWF) IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN
They forecast reintensification after it crosses Madagascar.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 009
WTXS31 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.7S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 51.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 131704Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 14 NM CONCENTRIC
EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE INFRARED EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MADAGASCAR
IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY (<30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, BASED
ON THE FACT THAT TC BINGIZA REACHED A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THEN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED AND DUE TO RECENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT, REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE TC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND RE-DEVELOP WITHIN 72 HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CHANNEL BEFORE TC 13S
RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR,
AND ECMWF) IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
85 knots with gusts of 120 knots from RSMC
WTIO30 FMEE 131901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 51.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 180 SE: 290 SO: 240 NO: 210
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/14 06 UTC: 16.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/15 06 UTC: 17.0S/45.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 17.7S/44.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 19.5S/42.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 18 UTC: 20.4S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 18/02/2011 18 UTC: 21.2S/42.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ AND CI=5.5-
INTENSITY OF BINGIZA HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE DAY. INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON
(PROBABLY TEMPORARY)
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HEAVY RAIN SHOULD GET ON THE NORTH AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN MONDAY EARLY BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND TOAMASINA. OVER THIS COASTAL
AREA, WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVILY INCREASE AND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H
ON AND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN NEXT NIGHT UP TO 80 KM FROM
THE CENTER. THE AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY THREATENED. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LANDFALL AREA MORE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THAN
THE ABOVE TARGETTED ONES
SHOULD THEREFORE CONCERN BY THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK , WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 400KM TO 500 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BINGIZA'S REMNANTS SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED STAGE ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN MAHAJO
NGA AND MORONDAVA. IN RELATIONSHIP TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.
WTIO30 FMEE 131901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 51.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 180 SE: 290 SO: 240 NO: 210
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/14 06 UTC: 16.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/15 06 UTC: 17.0S/45.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 17.7S/44.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 18.4S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 19.5S/42.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 18 UTC: 20.4S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 18/02/2011 18 UTC: 21.2S/42.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ AND CI=5.5-
INTENSITY OF BINGIZA HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE DAY. INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON
(PROBABLY TEMPORARY)
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HEAVY RAIN SHOULD GET ON THE NORTH AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN MONDAY EARLY BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND TOAMASINA. OVER THIS COASTAL
AREA, WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVILY INCREASE AND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H
ON AND AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN NEXT NIGHT UP TO 80 KM FROM
THE CENTER. THE AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY THREATENED. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LANDFALL AREA MORE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THAN
THE ABOVE TARGETTED ONES
SHOULD THEREFORE CONCERN BY THE STRONGEST WINDS.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK , WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 400KM TO 500 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BINGIZA'S REMNANTS SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED STAGE ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN MAHAJO
NGA AND MORONDAVA. IN RELATIONSHIP TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.
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-
Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 140043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/14 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 50.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090
64 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 16.1S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 16.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.1S/45.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 17.7S/44.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 18.8S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/02/2011 00 UTC: 20.4S/42.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 19/02/2011 00 UTC: 23.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-
INTENSITY OF BINGIZA HAS STILL FLUCTUATED FOR THE LAST HOURS.
SATELLITE
ECLIPSE BETWEEN 1900 AND 2200Z HAS FAILED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM, BUT
AFTER A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING, IT SEEMS THAT BINGIZA IS REINTENSIFYING A
LITTLE. CI IS MAINTENED AT 5.5-.
HEAVY RAIN IS GETTING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA
IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MASOALINA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS
AND
THEN TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN MONDAY MORNING VERY CLOSE TO
MANAMBOLOSY. IN
THE COMING HOURS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H WITHIN 150 KM
RADIUS
FROM THE
CENTRE AND MIGHT EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN 80 KM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
THE
AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND
ARE
ESPECIALLY THREATENED. CYCLONIC STURGE IN THE RANGE OF 1.00 TO 1.50 M
IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN MANAMBOLOSY AND ANTANAMBE.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 300KM TO 400 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BINGIZA'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED
STAGE
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN BESALAMPY AND MAINTIRANO. IN
RELATIONSHIP
TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.=
NNNN
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/14 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 50.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090
64 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 16.1S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 16.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.1S/45.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 17.7S/44.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 18.8S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/02/2011 00 UTC: 20.4S/42.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 19/02/2011 00 UTC: 23.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-
INTENSITY OF BINGIZA HAS STILL FLUCTUATED FOR THE LAST HOURS.
SATELLITE
ECLIPSE BETWEEN 1900 AND 2200Z HAS FAILED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM, BUT
AFTER A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING, IT SEEMS THAT BINGIZA IS REINTENSIFYING A
LITTLE. CI IS MAINTENED AT 5.5-.
HEAVY RAIN IS GETTING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA
IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MASOALINA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS
AND
THEN TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN MONDAY MORNING VERY CLOSE TO
MANAMBOLOSY. IN
THE COMING HOURS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H WITHIN 150 KM
RADIUS
FROM THE
CENTRE AND MIGHT EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN 80 KM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
THE
AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND
ARE
ESPECIALLY THREATENED. CYCLONIC STURGE IN THE RANGE OF 1.00 TO 1.50 M
IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN MANAMBOLOSY AND ANTANAMBE.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 300KM TO 400 KM FROM THE CENTER.
BINGIZA'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED
STAGE
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN BESALAMPY AND MAINTIRANO. IN
RELATIONSHIP
TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.=
NNNN
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Heading inland, its looking increasingly likely its going to re-emerge and it seems like the system is going to restrengthen over water. An awful lot of uncertainty with this system once it does re-emerge however, and it does seem there is at least a threat looking at the models again to land as it comes southwards again and strengthens
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 162
WTIO30 FMEE 141228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 48.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 060
48 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 16.4S/46.4E OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.3S/44.7E OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 18.2S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2S/42.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 20.1S/42.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/02/17 12 UTC: 21.6S/42.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/02/2011 12 UTC: 23.9S/42.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 19/02/2011 12 UTC: 26.2S/43.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BINGIZA HAS MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF
CITY OF MANAMBOLASY.
IT GOES ON TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARDS WEAKENING.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS ON THE NORTHERN PART OF MALAGASY AND ALSO
ORGANIZE INTO PERIPHERICAL BAND FROM COMOROS TO NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MALAGASY, THEN O
VER THE CHANNEL FROM 10S TO 20S.
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO GO ACROSS MADAGASCAR AND COME BACK OVER SEAS ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEYOND TAU 24, NEAR MAINTIRANO, WITHIN FAVORABLES
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SMOLY SOUTHWARDS SOUTH TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS,
THEN WEAKEN UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 141228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/5/20102011
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 48.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W / H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 060 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 060
48 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 16.4S/46.4E OVERLAND.
24H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.3S/44.7E OVERLAND.
36H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 18.2S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2S/42.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/02/17 00 UTC: 20.1S/42.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/02/17 12 UTC: 21.6S/42.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/02/2011 12 UTC: 23.9S/42.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 19/02/2011 12 UTC: 26.2S/43.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BINGIZA HAS MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF
CITY OF MANAMBOLASY.
IT GOES ON TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARDS WEAKENING.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS ON THE NORTHERN PART OF MALAGASY AND ALSO
ORGANIZE INTO PERIPHERICAL BAND FROM COMOROS TO NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MALAGASY, THEN O
VER THE CHANNEL FROM 10S TO 20S.
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO GO ACROSS MADAGASCAR AND COME BACK OVER SEAS ON
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEYOND TAU 24, NEAR MAINTIRANO, WITHIN FAVORABLES
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SMOLY SOUTHWARDS SOUTH TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS,
THEN WEAKEN UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NNNN
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