SIO: DIANNE (16U/16S) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest consensus

[HURAKAN]

Another low may develop north of the Pilbara coast late on Saturday or on
Sunday. This system may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday or later in
the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Sunday :Low
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate

[KWT]

ECM takes a while to get this thing going though it does develop something fairly strong in the 120-168hrs range.

[Chacor]

Watch out, Perth...

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Rod Hagen]

Do any other models suggest, like the euro, that it will head back to the coast around Perth in a week's time, or do they see it disappearing off to the west?

[KWT]

I suspect most keep it away from land though I've not looked recently. FWIW the ECM 00z also keeps it away from land.

The models aren't super agressive on it though they do strengthen it slowly over the next few days.

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
2:00 PM WST February 13 2011
=====================================

Another low is developing north of the Pilbara coast near 14S 118E and will move slowly west over the next 24 to 48 hours and slowly deepen. This system may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday or later in the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
At 11am WST a low was located near 16S 119E, about 480 kilometres north of Port
Hedland and moving towards the west southwest. Over the next three days the low
is expected to move towards the west southwest and so by Thursday is expected to
be located to the northwest of Exmouth. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone on Thursday or later in the week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :High

[KWT]

Looking increasingly likely this one will develop, ECM takes it slowly SW/SSW and becomes quite a large looking system before moving westwards and weakening.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 16.9S 118.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140535Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 140050Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SUPPORTED A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Certainly appears to be a TD now. Dvorak 2.0 to 2.5. Really wrapping up. Still no mention of it at NOAA/CIMSS as far as Dvorak rating.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 150230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 113.8E TO 24.2S 108.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
150130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S
113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
117.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
A 142135Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES OUTLINE A
WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 20-25
KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AROUND THE OUTER RIM. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING
ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS ALL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS ID UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160230Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest consensus

[Extratropical94]

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:20pm WST on Tuesday the 15th of February 2011
Valid until midnight WST Friday

[...]

Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm WST a developing tropical low [16U] was located near 19.1S 112.7E, about
350 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and moving towards the west southwest
at 24 kilometres per hour. The low is in a favourable environment for
development and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Friday :High

[...]

Here it is, 16U
I was wondering because the BOM only had 17U on their map

[Craiga74]

[HURAKAN]

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