SIO: DIANNE (16U/16S) - Tropical Cyclone

[Bobo2000]

latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 107.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 107.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.7S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.7S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.7S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.0S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.8S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 35.7S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A 20 NM EYE, BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT VANISHED NEAR THE CENTER. LIKELY THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTH IS TOO VIGOROUS. THE TC IS FAST-APPROACHING
COOLER WATERS, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY VERY LOW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE TC IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD BACK SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, PROMOTING A MORE WEST OF SOUTH TRACK UNTIL ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY RELAX. THIS
NEXT TROUGH WILL INCITE POLEWARD ACCELERATION AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72. THIS TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE NEAR TAU 96.
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY DUE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
SECOND TROUGH AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND
201500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1829 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 23.2S
Longitude: 107.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [194 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0600: 24.1S 106.7E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 969
+24: 20/1800: 24.8S 105.2E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 981
+36: 21/0600: 26.0S 103.7E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 988
+48: 21/1800: 27.8S 102.8E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 987
+60: 22/0600: 30.1S 103.0E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 990
+72: 22/1800: 32.3S 103.6E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 988
REMARKS:
Position based on MW and EIR imagery with well defined eye. EIR analyses during
the last 6 hours has given DTs of 3.5 to 4.5, an average over the last 3 hours
gives a DT 4.0. MET [based on D- trend]/PAT have been analysed at 4.5. FT is
based on an average DT 4.0 and CI set to 4.5.

ADT yielded initial raw T numbers of 4.5, 2.9 and 2.9 over the last 3 hours.
SATCON has weakened to 71 knots [1 minute wind] at 1100UTC.
Final intensity set to 70 knots [10-min wind].

Shear remains low at 2.5m/s [CIMSS 1200UTC], but ocean heat content is now
marginal. Cloud top temperatures have been warming. Ocean heat content will
continue to decrease along the forecast track and shear will increase. The
system is forecast to be at peak
intensity now and is likely to weaken steadily over the next 48 hours.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.0S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.0S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.6S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 33.5S 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 105.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DIANNE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
DIANNE'S EYE IS QUICKLY FILLING AND ENLARGING AS SURROUNDING CLOUD
TOPS WARM. IN FACT, VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. NONETHELESS
THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE
IS AT LEAST 65 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
ELEVATE ALONG TRACK AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 20/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 24.6S
Longitude: 106.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [250 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0000: 25.6S 104.5E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 974
+24: 21/1200: 27.2S 103.1E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 986
+36: 22/0000: 29.1S 102.5E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 992
+48: 22/1200: 31.1S 102.9E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 992
+60: 23/0000: 32.8S 103.2E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 992
+72: 23/1200: 34.6S 103.2E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 990
REMARKS:
Position based on EIR imagery with an eye that has become less defined during
recent hours. Recent EIR images has shown some warming of the cold tops and on
the latest 11:30Z IR image the eye has warmed considerably, indicating the
system's intensity has most likely peaked. DT=4.0 with MG surround with DG eye.
MET=3.5 with weakening trend. PAT=4.0. FT=DT=PAT. CI heald at 4.5 based on
weakening constraints.

Forecast track moves the sytem SW then S over cooler SSTs, thus Severe TC Dianne
is expected to weaken reasonably quickly over the next 24 to 36 hours as ocean
heat content reduces and increasing NW shear develops over the system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[KWT]

Looks like Dianne is on its last legs now, probably will not take much more for it to undergo some pretty rapid weakening...

[Crostorm]

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1837 UTC 20/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 25.0S
Longitude: 105.3E
Location Accuracy: within 35 nm [65 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0600: 26.3S 103.8E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 980
+24: 21/1800: 28.1S 102.7E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 988
+36: 22/0600: 30.1S 102.7E: 110 [210]: 030 [055]: 993
+48: 22/1800: 32.0S 103.1E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 992
+60: 23/0600: 33.7S 103.3E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 991
+72: 23/1800: 35.6S 103.2E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 990
REMARKS:
Position based on EIR imagery with an eye that has become less defined during
recent hours. Recent EIR images has shown some cooling of upper cold tops on the
latest 16:30Z IR image. DT=4.5 with MG surround with DG eye. MET=4.5 with
slightly developing trend. PAT=5.0. CI=FT=MET.

Forecast track moves the sytem SW then S over cooler SSTs, thus Severe TC Dianne
is expected to weaken reasonably quickly over the next 24 to 36 hours as ocean
heat content reduces and increasing NW shear develops over the system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:47 am WST on Monday 21 February 2011
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Dianne (Category 2) was located at 8 am WST near 25.2S 104.1E,
that is 960 km west of Carnarvon and 1120 km west northwest of Geraldton and
moving west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne is located well offshore and is moving towards the west
southwest, away from the WA mainland. Dianne is weakening and does not pose a
threat to coastal communities. Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Maps will
continue to be issued.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 104.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 104.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 27.2S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 29.4S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.9S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 103.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND A
202039Z TRMM IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0/4.5 FROM APRF AND 3.5/4.5
FROM PGTW. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AHEAD OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU
36. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

beautiful pic!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1301 UTC 21/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 26.9S
Longitude: 102.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [212 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.5/W2.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0000: 28.6S 101.9E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 980
+24: 22/1200: 30.4S 102.3E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 987
+36: 23/0000: 31.8S 102.6E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 989
+48: 23/1200: 33.3S 102.7E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 989
+60: 24/0000: 35.9S 102.5E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 989
+72: 24/1200: 37.8S 103.7E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 987
REMARKS:
Position based on satellite imagery and past movement. Enhanced satellite
imagery shows substantially warmer cloud tops. Deep convection is displaced to
the south of the LLCC conducive with approximately 10 knots of northerly shear
over the system. Microwave imagery shows that the system is still reasonably
well structured. TC Dianne is located over SSTs of about 24 deg C or less.

DT is becoming difficult to asign, however a shear pattern with less than 3/4
degree distance from the LLCC and the cold cloud gives 2.5. Over the last 24
hours TC Dianne has shown considerable weakening with the loss of it's eye and
removal of deep convection from the systems centre, so MET=3.0 based on W+
[strong weakening] trend. PT=2.5 after adjusting MET down. FT is based on PT
[which agrees with DT]. CI is held 1.0 higher at 3.5 with the expectation that
TC Dianne may show renewed convective activity during the diurnally favourable
overnight period, sustaining a weak category 2 system [maximum winds 50 knots]
until Tuesday morning.

Latest SATCON intensity estimates have TC Dianne slightly stronger at 54 kt and
ADT slightly weaker at 47 knots.

Forecast track continues to moves the system southwards over cooler SSTs.
Increasing NW shear is also expected to develop over the system. Thus TC Dianne
is expected to weaken to below TC intensity in about 24 hours time.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

on its last leg

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 26.6S 102.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 102.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 28.5S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.4S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 102.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211147Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING, ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND THE LATEST FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW AND ABRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER COOL SST WHILE DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0039 UTC 22/02/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 28.3S
Longitude: 101.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south [190 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/1200: 30.2S 102.4E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 993
+24: 23/0000: 31.5S 102.6E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 23/1200: 32.7S 102.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 995
+48: 24/0000: 34.2S 101.4E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 24/1200: : : :
+72: 25/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
EX-TC Dianne has now weakened below cyclone intensity.

CIMSS indicates wind shear has increased over the system. The system continues
to weaken under the influence of shear and cooler SSTs. Deep convection is
displaced to the south of the LLCC with microwave imagery showing that the
system is still reasonably well structured at the low levels.

DT is difficult to asign, so FT based on adjusted PT of 2.0 with CI held 0.5
higher at 2.5.
No gales have been observed by Scatterometer or are indicated by models and ADT
has consistently been giving raw T numbers of 1.5.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 28.5S 102.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 102.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.4S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 29.0S 102.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME THREE REPORTING AGENCIES.
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE
CAUSED TC 16S TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT
TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 12 AS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.
THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN