SIO: DIANNE (16U/16S) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[the_guy]

looks like it will soon be too far south into the cooler surface water region of 25-26c not enough energy there needs to be about 28c . also moveing too far from equator, say becoming extratropical and will probably lose power and break up in 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

NRL : 65 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 18/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.2S
Longitude: 109.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [228 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1800: 20.9S 108.9E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 975
+24: 19/0600: 21.9S 108.3E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 970
+36: 19/1800: 22.5S 108.0E: 120 [225]: 050 [095]: 976
+48: 20/0600: 23.1S 107.4E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 981
+60: 20/1800: 24.0S 106.5E: 200 [375]: 040 [075]: 984
+72: 21/0600: 25.3S 105.1E: 250 [465]: 035 [065]: 988
REMARKS:
LLCC is embedded in MG giving DT 4.0. 24hr trend is S hence MET is 3.5. Applying
an EIR analysis to the 0330Z image [despite not being a true eye pattern] gave a
similar DT. PAT is 3.5 and FT is set to PAT. ADT is running lower than this but
AMSU estimates are running higher.

There is a significant area of convection to the northwest of the CDO that is
likely to influence the motion and intensity of the system. Dianne has been near
stationary for some time now and upwelling may be reducing the ocean heat
content and affecting intensity.

Shear at 00Z was analysed as remaining steady at 6.7m/s from the east southeast.
This is consistent with appearance in IR imagery. Shear should improve slightly
during Friday night and then by Sunday the system should be experiencing
northerly shear and be over much cooler waters.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS33 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.0S 108.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 108.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.7S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 22.9S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.5S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.3S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 30.3S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 36.0S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 108.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
181115Z CORIOLIS 37H IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, AND SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES
AND APRF. TC 16S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TRACK SPEED IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THIS
RIDGE WEAKENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN AFTER TAU 36 AND
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPER MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING
PATTERN, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS
BETWEEN TAU 12-72. MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WITH
INCREASING SPREAD AND SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IMPROVES AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD TRACK FORECAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH. TC 16S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SST AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. BY TAU 72-
96, TC 16S SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL.
DIANNE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED AND WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 8:43 pm WST on Friday 18 February 2011

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse has
been CANCELLED.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category 2 was estimated to be
535 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and
640 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon and was moving southwest at 14 kilometres
per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne continues to move towards the southwest, away from the
WA mainland. Dianne should continue to move in a southwesterly direction over
the next few days but will be closely monitored to ensure it does not pose a
threat to coastal communities. Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Maps will
continue to be issued.

Although no direct weather impacts are expected, tides along the entire west
coast are likely to exceed the high water mark over the next few days.

FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in or near Coral Bay are advised to proceed with caution.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Dianne at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.9 degrees South 109.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour.
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast. For further details on Tropical Cyclone Dianne please refer to the
Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin (IDW24000) and Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Track Map (IDW60281).

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Extratropical94]

18/2032 UTC 21.2S 107.8E T4.5/4.5 DIANNE -- Southeast Indian

[Bobo2000]

A cat 3, but looks like cool waters, so it should be at it's peak now.

[KWT]

4.5 looks a good call based on this system's current presentation, it doesn't look like it has the presentation of a system that is going to go much beyond what it has at the moment however things can change fairly fast and there is still time.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... 80 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 21.5S
Longitude: 108.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [223 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1200: 22.3S 107.5E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 968
+24: 20/0000: 22.9S 107.0E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 971
+36: 20/1200: 23.5S 106.1E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 978
+48: 21/0000: 24.5S 104.5E: 155 [285]: 035 [065]: 986
+60: 21/1200: 26.1S 103.1E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 989
+72: 22/0000: 28.4S 102.2E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 989
REMARKS:
Good microwave fixes obtained overnight. LLCC embedded in LG to give DT 4.5.
Trend is D- giving a MET of 4.5 and FT is set to 4.5. SATCON is in general
agreement with ADT at CI=4.3 and AMSU estimates running slightly higher than
ADT.

Shear dropped overnight and was analysed by CIMSS at 1.3m/s at 18Z and 1.7m/s at
00Z. Shear should remain low today with direction shifting to northerly over the
next 24 hours and shear then increasing significantly by Monday. On the current
track ocean heat content reduces steadily and the system is likely to be peaking
today and steadily weakening over the coming days.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[Bobo2000]

80 knots now

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0659 UTC 19/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 22.1S
Longitude: 107.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [205 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 22.8S 107.2E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 971
+24: 20/0600: 23.4S 106.5E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 975
+36: 20/1800: 24.1S 105.3E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 983
+48: 21/0600: 25.4S 103.8E: 155 [285]: 035 [065]: 989
+60: 21/1800: 27.4S 102.6E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 989
+72: 22/0600: 30.0S 102.4E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 989
REMARKS:
Position based on VIS imagery with well defined eye [less well defined in IR].
EIR analyses during the last 3 hours have given DTs of 4.0 to 4.5 with the LLCC
embedded in either DG or MG and Eadj either 0, or -0.5 based on elongated eye
appearance. MET/PAT have also been analysed at 4.0-4.5 over the last three
hours. FT is set to 4.. ADT is at T4.0, no recent AMSU intensity estimates
available. Final intensity estimate set to equivalent of T4.5 [70 knots 10-min
wind].

Shear remains low at 2.6m/s but ocean heat content is now marginal and despite
improved organisation in the low shear environment cloud top temperatures are
warming. Ocean heat content will continue to decrease along the forecast track
and shear will increase. The system is forecast to be at peak intensity now and
is likely to weaken steadily over the next 48 hours.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Looking quite good now it has to be said, also not moving anywhere fast from the looks of things either!

[HURAKAN]

Latest