SIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (06R/98S)

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Consensus



Latest

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latest consensus

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5S 61.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF INITIAL ORGANIZATION. A 150213Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
HINTS AT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LACKS ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING. A 150532Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR. HOWEVER, THE FLOW WEAKENS BY
APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AS IS WRAPS AROUND THE NORTH SIDE INTO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATON WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR

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Latest

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latest consensus

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ZCZC 419
WTIO20 FMEE 151821
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/02/2011
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/06 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 15/02/2011 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 62.7E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT WITHIN 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
15.0S / 62.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2011/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
15.0S / 62.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS VERY SLOWLY WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE. DEEPENING SHOULD BECOME MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO TAU72.=
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latest

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.6E
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 61.4E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
150046Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.

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ZCZC 546
WTIO30 FMEE 160627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2011/02/16 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 62.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/62.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/17 06 UTC: 15.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 15.8S/62.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 16.6S/63.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2011/02/18 18 UTC: 17.5S/63.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/19 06 UTC: 18.1S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 20/02/2011 06 UTC: 18.7S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
120H: 21/02/2011 06 UTC: 19.3S/60.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5- Ci=2.0-
THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTING BY MODERATE EASTSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND HAS
WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW CLEARLY SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS LOCATED AT MORE THAN 90 NM FROM THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.IT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO PRODUCE
WINDS ABOVE THE N
EAR GALE THRESHOLD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS VERY SLOWLY
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE. INFLOW IS ONLY PRESENT
EQUATORWARD AND REMAINS WEAK, UNDER EASTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DEEPENING COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO TAU72, WHEN THE
CENTER COME CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... BUT IN FACT NONE OF THE
AVAIBLE DYNAMICAL AIDS DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS SYSTEM.
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. PLEASE SEE DAILY
BULLETIN AWIO20 FMEE FOR FURTHER MONITORING OF THIS SYSTEM.
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Latest

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strong east shear, exposed

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Latest microwave

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ZCZC 974
WTIO30 FMEE 171235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/6/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2011/02/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 62.1E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SO: NO: 185
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/18 00 UTC: 17.0S/62.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/18 12 UTC: 18.0S/63.3E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2011/02/19 00 UTC: 18.6S/63.8E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2011/02/19 12 UTC: 18.9S/63.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/02/20 00 UTC: 19.1S/63.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/20 12 UTC: 19.2S/63.4E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED. CONVECTION EXISTS FAR
AWAY
FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ASCAT PASS 0415Z SHOWS
NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THIS QUADRANT FROM 50 TO 100 NM FROM THE
CENTRE.
IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP A SLOW
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXISTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. UP TO FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED.
SATURDAY, THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MAY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
NEAR
RODRIGUES ISLAND ... BUT NO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DEEPEN THE SYSTEM (NO
GOOD
LOW LEVEL SUPPLY AND COOLER SST).=
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Strong convection but strong east shear too

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Exposed