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SPO: ATU (11F/17P) Tropical Cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 21/2001 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 940HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.7S 171.0E AT 211800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT
STILL DISCERNIBLE. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST
BUT FAIR ESLEWHERE. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORHTWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND LG
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.5,
MET=5.5, PT=5.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH SOUTHEAST .
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 21.8S 171.9E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 24.4S 173.2E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 27.4S 175.5E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 30.4S 178.7E MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220200 UTC.
Feb 21/2001 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 940HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.7S 171.0E AT 211800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT
STILL DISCERNIBLE. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST
BUT FAIR ESLEWHERE. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORHTWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND LG
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.5,
MET=5.5, PT=5.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH SOUTHEAST .
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 21.8S 171.9E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 24.4S 173.2E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 27.4S 175.5E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 30.4S 178.7E MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220200 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 22/0225 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 942HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.2S 171.8E AT 220000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS
IMAGERY WITH PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEHWERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT
STILL DISCERNIBLE. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST
BUT FAIR ESLEWHERE. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORHTWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH W
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0,
MET=5.0, PT=5.0, FT BASED ON PT, THUS T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 23.5S 172.9E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 26.2S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 29.3S 177.7E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 32.4S 178.7E MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220800 UTC.
Feb 22/0225 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 942HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.2S 171.8E AT 220000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS
IMAGERY WITH PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEHWERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT
STILL DISCERNIBLE. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST
BUT FAIR ESLEWHERE. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORHTWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH W
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0,
MET=5.0, PT=5.0, FT BASED ON PT, THUS T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 23.5S 172.9E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 26.2S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 29.3S 177.7E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 32.4S 178.7E MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220800 UTC.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SPO: ATU (11F/17P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 172.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 172.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.6S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.6S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 35.8S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 172.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION BASED ON THE 35-NM EYE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TC 17P HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH LITTLE STRUCTURAL
CHANGE. A 220532Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
ALL QUADRANTS. TC 17P IS ACCELERATING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, AND PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AND SHOULD REMAIN A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 172.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 172.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.6S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.6S 176.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 35.8S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 172.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION BASED ON THE 35-NM EYE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. TC 17P HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH LITTLE STRUCTURAL
CHANGE. A 220532Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
ALL QUADRANTS. TC 17P IS ACCELERATING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, AND PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AND SHOULD REMAIN A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:Just seeing this thread.......
Earthquake and now a Cyclone headed towards NZ?
Fortunately (or less unfortunately) no, they won't have to deal with Atu as it will pass well to the north.
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Re: SPO: ATU (11F/17P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone
Is it me or Atu has not completed yet the EWRC? That inner eyewall has been there longer than normal.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HURRICANE WARNING 437
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ATU [945hPa] centre was located near 27.0 South 175.0 East at 230000 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 27.0S 175.0E at 230000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 85 knots close to the centre easing to 70 knots by 231200 UTC and then easing to 55 knots by 240000 UTC.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to north.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 300 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to north.
Forecast position near 30.5S 177.5E at 231200 UTC
and near 32.5S 179.5W at 240000 UTC.
Issued at 1:37pm Wednesday 23 February 2011
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ATU [945hPa] centre was located near 27.0 South 175.0 East at 230000 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 27.0S 175.0E at 230000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 85 knots close to the centre easing to 70 knots by 231200 UTC and then easing to 55 knots by 240000 UTC.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to north.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 300 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from east through south to north.
Forecast position near 30.5S 177.5E at 231200 UTC
and near 32.5S 179.5W at 240000 UTC.
Issued at 1:37pm Wednesday 23 February 2011
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 173.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 173.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.7S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 31.4S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.1S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 174.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
14 NM EYE WITH DEGRADED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
A 221644Z SSMI IMAGES DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DECREASED
ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. OUTFLOW IS
ALSO HINDERED ON THIS SIDE ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. TC 17P IS
ACCELERATING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING OVER COOLER WATERS (BELOW
26 DEGREES CELSIUS) DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE COOLER
WATERS COUPLED WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, TC 17P WILL WEAKEN AND
TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 28.5S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 31.4S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.2S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS ACCELERATED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230515Z 85H SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A 14 NM RAGGED EYE WITH EXPOSED LOW LEVEL BANDING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS (INDICATIVE OF THE ONSET OF
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY 24/06Z AS IT
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 17P
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SSTS, BUT SHOULD COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 31.4S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.4S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 33.7S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0S 179.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATED AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EVIDENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH LINES OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
EXHIBIT EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
FULL ET IN 12 APPROXIMATELY HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ET PROGNOSTIC
MODELS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 27 FEET.//
NNNN
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