SPO: ATU (11F/17P) Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak follows the rest with the 4.5/4.5.

19/2332 UTC 16.7S 169.2E T4.5/4.5 ATU -- Southwest Pacific

[GCANE]

[P.K.]

Well going by all the Dvorak bulletins this should now be a 65kt cat 3. They only increased it to 55kts at 00Z though which is clearly too low.

WHPS01 NFFN 200000
HURRICANE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 20/0107 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8 SOUTH 169.2
EAST AT 200000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.8S 169.2E AT 200000 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 020 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.2S 169.3E AT 201200 UTC
AND NEAR 17.9S 169.6E AT 210000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 012.

[cycloneye]

NRL has the 00:00 UTC updated at 75kts and 967 mbs.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 20/0224 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 980HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
169.2E AT 200000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY WITH PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55
KNOTS INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL
MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ATU CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH AN EMBEDDED
CENTRE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300 HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LYING IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED SOUTH BY A WEAK NORHTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT =
4.0, MET=4.0 PT=4.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 17.2S 169.3E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 17.9S 169.6E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 19.1S 169.9E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 20.6S 170.4E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 200800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

20/0232 UTC 16.9S 169.3E T5.5/5.5 ATU -- Southwest Pacific

100 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Crostorm]

animation

[Extratropical94]

NRL at 90 kt and 956 mbars now...

That is quite close to the Dvorak estimates.

[Crostorm]

HURRICANE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 20/0748 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 973HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0 SOUTH
169.4 EAST AT 200600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0S 169.4E AT 200600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
210600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES
IN NE QUADRANT 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT 45 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.4S 169.6E AT 201800 UTC
AND NEAR 18.2S 169.9E AT 210600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 200600 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 20/0842 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 973HPA CAT 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 169.4E AT 200600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT 45 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

ATU INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CENTRE
EMBEDDED. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT GOOD
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300 HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LYING IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTH BY A WEAK NORHTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN IN WHITE SURROUND
YIELDING DT = 5.0, MET =4.5 PT = 4.5, FT BASED ON MET, THUS
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 17.4S 169.6E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC 18.2S 169.9E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 19.4S 170.2E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 21.1S 170.7E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 201400 UTC.

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (ATU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.3S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.0S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.5S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.8S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.4S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 169.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (ATU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED TO 90 KNOTS SINCE
YESTERDAY BASED ON 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN
RANGING FROM OF T4.5 TO T5.0. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD ON ACCOUNT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. AN EMBEDDED CENTER
WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS AIDED IN POSITIONING. THE
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC ATU CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND WILL BECOME THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SLOW TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM WATERS. AFTER TAU 48 ATU WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ELEVATES IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
INCITE POLEWARD ACCELERATION. AN ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72 AND BY TAU 96, THE
LAST FORECAST POSITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK. AS SUCH
THE FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND
210900Z.//
NNNN

[Iceperple]

Warning the WV from 16S and 17S.
They will be covered under the cold front in South Aus.

[Crostorm]

20/0832 UTC 17.1S 169.5E T6.0/6.0 ATU -- Southwest Pacific

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Holy crap. CPHC agrees with T6.0:

TXPS41 PHFO 201238
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1245 UTC SUN FEB 20 2011

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU...11F

B. 20/1132Z

C. 17.0S

D. 169.5E

E. MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. EIR

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE AND SURROUNDING W SHADE
YIELDING A DT OF 6.5. MET 5.5 AND PT 6.0. FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NONE.

$$
CRAIG

[P.K.]

Cat 4 Atu.

WHPS01 NFFN 201200
HURRICANE WARNING 015 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 20/1308 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CATEGORY 4 CENTRE 940HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0 SOUTH
169.5 EAST AT 201200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0S 169.5E AT 201200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS
BY 210000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 169.8E AT 210000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.0S 170.2E AT 211200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 014.