SPO: ATU (11F/17P) Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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SPO: ATU (11F/17P) Tropical Cyclone
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tuesday 15th February
A tropical disturbance is expected to develop in the area shaded below and the potential for this disturbance to develop into a cyclone would be LOW.
Wednesday 16th February
The tropical disturbance is expected to remain slow moving in the area shaded below with slight intensification and the potential for this disturbance to develop into a cyclone would be LOW TO MODERATE.
Tuesday 15th February
A tropical disturbance is expected to develop in the area shaded below and the potential for this disturbance to develop into a cyclone would be LOW.
Wednesday 16th February
The tropical disturbance is expected to remain slow moving in the area shaded below with slight intensification and the potential for this disturbance to develop into a cyclone would be LOW TO MODERATE.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPO: INVEST 90P
Not looking too bad.
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 13/2256 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F ANALYSED NEAR 18.2S 167.9E AT 132100 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT WESTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 13/2256 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F ANALYSED NEAR 18.2S 167.9E AT 132100 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT WESTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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Alot of convection there, though the models aren't all that keen on developing it. The 00z ECM for example only just about develops a closed off low with this system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 14/0812 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F ANALYSED NEAR 18.5S 166.0E AT 140600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT WESTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 14/0812 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F ANALYSED NEAR 18.5S 166.0E AT 140600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT WESTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 16/0836 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F [1004 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.6S 169.5E AT
160800 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 16/0836 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F [1004 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.6S 169.5E AT
160800 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139080
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SPO: INVEST 90P
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 170.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION FLARING OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS DISTURBANCE IS ENCOUNTERING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS
IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION FLARING OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THIS DISTURBANCE IS ENCOUNTERING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS
IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Re: SPO: INVEST 90P
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 16/2251 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1003 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S 170.6E AT
162100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
LAST 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 16/2251 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1003 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S 170.6E AT
162100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
LAST 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139080
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F (90P)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
170.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162152Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THE 162205Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL GOOD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SURFACE WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
170.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 162152Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THE 162205Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL GOOD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SURFACE WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F (90P)
All globals are spinning this up to a major TC.
Interesting that Solar Watcher advertised this a couple days ago after the X2.2 solar flare.
He has alsp been nailing the latest earthquakes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ6b7CQL ... e=bulletin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LAIokzp ... e=bulletin
Interesting that Solar Watcher advertised this a couple days ago after the X2.2 solar flare.
He has alsp been nailing the latest earthquakes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ6b7CQL ... e=bulletin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LAIokzp ... e=bulletin
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F (90P)
Very strong rain-rate & cold cloud-tops will little boundary-layer moisture infeed and weak core-temp.
Could ramp fast.
Could ramp fast.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F (90P)
I think this will be a great chance to see how TC development correlates with Solar Activity.
Solar Wind from CMEs should hit earth within 24 hrs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZWSr99VGcU
Solar Wind from CMEs should hit earth within 24 hrs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZWSr99VGcU
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F (90P)
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/0909 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1002 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.8S 169.9E AT
170600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/0909 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1002 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.8S 169.9E AT
170600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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