SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 57
Issued at 5:49 pm WST on Wednesday 23 February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Carnarvon and
adjacent inland parts.

At 5:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
130 kilometres southwest of Exmouth
and 260 kilometres north northwest of Carnarvon and
moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is now over open water and moving away from the coast.
Carlos weakened a little as it moved over North West Cape but is likely to
reintensify as it moves into open waters.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are no longer expected
in coastal parts between North West Cape and Coral Bay.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are being experienced on the North
West Cape and Coral Bay and are likely to extend down the coast as far as Cape
Cuvier. GALES may extend as far south as Carnarvon tonight if the system tracks
further towards the south.

People on the west coast south of North West Cape, including residents of
Carnarvon, are warned that tides will be higher than normal and may rise above
the normal high tide mark during Thursday.

HEAVY RAINFALL will continue to cause localised flooding for western Pilbara
coastal streams. Significant stream rises are not expected as rivers remain
below flood level. Conditions will ease from the east during Wednesday evening.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Exmouth to Coral Bay, including
Exmouth, Coral Bay and surrounding areas need to remain in shelter.

ALL CLEAR: People in or near Onslow are advised that wind and storm surge
dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by
damage.

Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 22.6 degrees South 113.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Wednesday 23 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[KWT]

I think land has really prevented this one getting going, esp given how good backgrodund conditions actually were/are with this system...about 150 miles to the north of where it tracked we'd probably had quite a strong storm raking the N.Australia coast.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.9S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.2S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.7S 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.6S 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 33.5S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH INDICATE THAT TC 15S HAS MOVED BACK
OUT OVER WATER AND RE-INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
(231121Z TRMM AND A 231123Z SSMIS) DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
RE-FORMING AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR SIGNATURE AND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURES IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 15S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND WILL
CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, AT
WHICH POINT A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INCITE A POLEWARD
TURN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES 110
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE AS SSTS STEADILY DROP OFF AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. TC 15S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 58
Issued at 8:44 pm WST on Wednesday 23 February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Carnarvon and
adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Exmouth has been cancelled.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
165 kilometres southwest of Exmouth
and 250 kilometres north northwest of Carnarvon and
moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is now over open water and moving away from the coast.
Carlos is likely to reintensify overnight and on Thursday as it moves in a
general southwest direction.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are no longer expected
in coastal parts between North West Cape and Coral Bay.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are being experienced between North
West Cape and Coral Bay and are likely to extend down the coast as far as Cape
Cuvier. GALES may extend as far south as Carnarvon overnight if the system
tracks further towards the south.

People on the west coast south of North West Cape, including residents of
Carnarvon, are warned that tides will be higher than normal and may rise above
the normal high tide mark during Thursday.

HEAVY RAINFALL will continue to cause localised flooding for western Pilbara
coastal streams. Significant stream rises are not expected as rivers remain
below flood level. Conditions will ease from the east overnight Wednesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Exmouth to Coral Bay, including
Exmouth, Coral Bay and surrounding areas need to remain in shelter.

Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 22.8 degrees South 112.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Thursday 24 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

looks like it has reached hurricane intensity

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 60
Issued at 2:46 am WST on Thursday 24 February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Carnarvon.

At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
250 kilometres northwest of Carnarvon
and 275 kilometres southwest of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos is over open water and moving away from the coast.
Carlos is likely to reintensify during Thursday as it moves towards the
southwest.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are still possible between North
West Cape and Cape Cuvier during the next few hours. GALES may also extend as
far south as Carnarvon early Thursday morning if the system tracks further
towards the south. Conditions are expected to ease later during the morning as
the cyclone moves further away from the coast.

People on the west coast south of North West Cape, including residents of
Carnarvon, are warned that tides will be higher than normal and may rise above
the normal high tide mark during Thursday.

HEAVY RAINFALL has eased over western Pilbara coastal streams with only
moderate falls likely during Thursday morning.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Exmouth to Coral Bay, including
Exmouth, Coral Bay and surrounding areas need to remain in shelter.

Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 23.3 degrees South 111.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 973 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Thursday 24 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1902 UTC 23/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 23.3S
Longitude: 111.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/0600: 24.3S 110.1E: 055 [100]: 070 [130]: 962
+24: 24/1800: 25.6S 108.0E: 085 [155]: 065 [120]: 963
+36: 25/0600: 27.0S 106.0E: 115 [215]: 055 [100]: 973
+48: 25/1800: 28.6S 104.4E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 980
+60: 26/0600: 30.3S 103.3E: 195 [360]: 040 [075]: 983
+72: 26/1800: 31.7S 102.8E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 986
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Carlos has crossed the North West Cape and is now over open
water.

During the last few hours the system has shown signs of intensification, with an
eye developing on recent IR images. Dvorak estimates yield DT of about 4.0
[including a 0.5 subtraction for it's elongated shape]. MET is 4.5 based on a
trend of D-; PT is 4.0; FT is set to 4.0. Intensity estimate is 60 knots
[10-min].

At 1200 UTC, CIMSS indicated easterly shear of 9.3 m/s.

Carlos is over open water with ocean heat content remaining high east of 110E.
Once Carlos moves west of 110E it should begin to weaken under the prevailing
shear as SSTs decrease.

The forecast track shows steady southwest motion under the influence of a
middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high
confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[SouthDadeFish]

9.3m/s of shear should keep it from strengthening too much.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible and infrared

[HURAKAN]

Winds are down to 45 knots according to NRL but I can't remember a 45-knot storm that had this microwave image!

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.0S 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.2S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.6S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.1S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.7S 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 32.7S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 109.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ALTHOUGH OVERALL DEPTH HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND RADIAL OUTFLOW,
MORE RESTRAINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES WITH CLEARLY-DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES AND EDGE-OF-SWATH RADAR
LOOP FROM LEARMONTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE SOUTHEAST NEAR PERTH. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK TO MODERATE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE. BY TAU 36,
TC CARLOS WILL MOVE MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 72, CARLOS WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT FANS OUT SLIGHTLY WITH GFS
AS THE LEFTMOST AND GFDN AS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0130 UTC 24/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 23.8S
Longitude: 110.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1200: 25.0S 108.6E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 980
+24: 25/0000: 26.4S 106.5E: 085 [155]: 045 [085]: 983
+36: 25/1200: 27.9S 104.7E: 115 [215]: 040 [075]: 985
+48: 26/0000: 29.5S 103.3E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 988
+60: 26/1200: 31.1S 102.5E: 195 [360]: 030 [055]: 990
+72: 27/0000: 32.2S 102.2E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 990
REMARKS:
IR images 1830-2030 and morning VIS images give consistent wrap of around 0.9
yielding DT 3.5. Trend is S, MET 4.0, PAT=3.5 and FT=DT=3.5. Overnight imagery
was reanalysed and although FTs rose to 4.0 by 1730 FT was 3.5 so this does not
represent initial weakening, [Perth TCWC uses a 6 hour initial weakening rule
following Brown and Franklin 2004] hence CI=FT.

SATCON at 18Z was higher with both ADT and AMSU intensity estimates above 70
knots [1-min] but raw DTs are much lower and the microwave imagery indicates a
very broad eye-like feature that is subjectively assessed as being inconsistent
with a hurricane force system. Final intensity estimate is set at 50 knots
[10-min].

At 0000 UTC, CIMSS indicated ESE shear of 8.5m/s. Although this is a slight
weakening of the shear the ocean heat content will markedly drop as the system
moves west of 110E and the system should gradually weaken.

The forecast track shows steady southwest motion under the influence of a
middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high
confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC, how is that 45-knot estimate looking?

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Macrocane]

And as I've said so many times before, the agencies trust too much in Dvorak and they ignore other imagery like microwave, I mean Carlos looks like a donut! it can't be that weak.

[HURAKAN]

NRL : 60 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0648 UTC 24/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 24.3S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1800: 25.6S 107.3E: 055 [100]: 055 [100]: 978
+24: 25/0600: 27.1S 105.3E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 981
+36: 25/1800: 28.6S 103.7E: 115 [215]: 045 [085]: 983
+48: 26/0600: 30.3S 102.6E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 986
+60: 26/1800: 31.7S 102.1E: 195 [360]: 030 [055]: 991
+72: 27/0600: 32.7S 101.9E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 988
REMARKS:
Dvorak analyses over the last 3 VIS images have yielded a consistent wrap of 1.1
giving a DT of 4.0. CI=FT=DT=MET=PAT=4.0. Organisation has improved [a weak eye
is clearly evident in VIS] although cloud top temperatures have warmed. This is
consistent with the drop in shear [ESE 8.5m/s at 0000 UTC] and lower SSTs. The
ASCAT pass at 0230Z [50% coverage] indicated winds to around 50 knots. Final
intensity estimate is set at 55 knots [10-min].

The forecast track shows steady southwest motion under the influence of a
middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high
confidence in the consensus track due to low spread. The system is expected to
gradually weaken under moderate shear and decreasing ocean heat content.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL : 70 knots

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1249UTC 24 FEBRUARY 2011

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Carlos was estimated to be within 30 nautical
miles of
latitude twenty four decimal seven south (24.7S)
longitude one hundred and eight decimal five east (108.5E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 975 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 1800 UTC 24
February then easing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 25 February.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas between 1800 UTC 24 February and 0000 UTC 25 February.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 26.1 south 106.6 east
Central pressure 968 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 25 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 27.9 south 105.3 east
Central pressure 974 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 24 February 2011.

WEATHER PERTH