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SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
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HURAKAN
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SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
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Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Feb 24, 2011 9:01 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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HURAKAN
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Potential Cyclones:
A weak Tropical Low, 1005 hPa, is located over the western Top End approximately
60km northwest of Katherine. The low is expected to move slowly west during the
next few days and may move into the Timor Sea later in the week.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Tuesday: Very low.
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.
A weak Tropical Low, 1005 hPa, is located over the western Top End approximately
60km northwest of Katherine. The low is expected to move slowly west during the
next few days and may move into the Timor Sea later in the week.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Tuesday: Very low.
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:20 am CST Tuesday 15 February 2011
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin, Croker Island
and the Tiwi Islands.
At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was over land be 45 kilometres southwest of
Batchelor and 100 kilometres south southwest of Darwin and slow moving. The low
is expected to move north or northwest into the Beagle Gulf and may develop into
a tropical cyclone during Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 130.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:20 am CST Tuesday 15 February 2011
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin, Croker Island
and the Tiwi Islands.
At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was over land be 45 kilometres southwest of
Batchelor and 100 kilometres south southwest of Darwin and slow moving. The low
is expected to move north or northwest into the Beagle Gulf and may develop into
a tropical cyclone during Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 130.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0303 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 130.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [316 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land.
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1200: 12.9S 130.5E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 16/0000: 12.3S 130.6E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 16/1200: 11.9S 130.5E: 125 [230]: 035 [065]: 999
+48: 17/0000: 11.8S 130.4E: 155 [285]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 17/1200: 11.8S 130.2E: 205 [375]: 045 [085]: 992
+72: 18/0000: 11.9S 130.1E: 250 [465]: 045 [085]: 993
REMARKS:
A tropical low is located over the western Top End near Batchelor based on
surface observations.
Convection is located near and to the northwest of the system, which is located
in an environment of moderate shear [about 20 knots based on CIMSS data at
1800Z].
The system is located near an upper level trough, with good return flow creating
strong upper-level divergence. Shear is expected to be favourable in the
outlook. Intensification of the low is expected once it moves over the Timor
Sea.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow progression towards the Tiwi
Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0303 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 130.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [316 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land.
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1200: 12.9S 130.5E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 16/0000: 12.3S 130.6E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 16/1200: 11.9S 130.5E: 125 [230]: 035 [065]: 999
+48: 17/0000: 11.8S 130.4E: 155 [285]: 040 [075]: 995
+60: 17/1200: 11.8S 130.2E: 205 [375]: 045 [085]: 992
+72: 18/0000: 11.9S 130.1E: 250 [465]: 045 [085]: 993
REMARKS:
A tropical low is located over the western Top End near Batchelor based on
surface observations.
Convection is located near and to the northwest of the system, which is located
in an environment of moderate shear [about 20 knots based on CIMSS data at
1800Z].
The system is located near an upper level trough, with good return flow creating
strong upper-level divergence. Shear is expected to be favourable in the
outlook. Intensification of the low is expected once it moves over the Timor
Sea.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow progression towards the Tiwi
Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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Potential Cyclones:
A developing Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, was located over the western Top End near
13.3S 130.7E, approximately 45km southwest of Batchelor at 9:30 am CST on 15
February and moving slowly north northwest. The low is expected to continue
moving north northwest during the next few days to be located in the Timor Sea
near the Tiwi Islands by Wednesday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Tuesday: Low.
Wednesday: Moderate.
Thursday: Moderate.
A developing Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, was located over the western Top End near
13.3S 130.7E, approximately 45km southwest of Batchelor at 9:30 am CST on 15
February and moving slowly north northwest. The low is expected to continue
moving north northwest during the next few days to be located in the Timor Sea
near the Tiwi Islands by Wednesday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Tuesday: Low.
Wednesday: Moderate.
Thursday: Moderate.
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS22 PGTW 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 12.7S 130.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 150600Z INDI-
CATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 130.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
130.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR DARWIN. DARWIN DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTION BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE LLCC OVER WATER. DARWIN IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1002 MB AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KNOTS GUSTING
TO OVER 40 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS DRIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARDS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY ONCE OVER
WATER. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160730Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0746 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 130.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [316 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land.
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1800: 12.4S 130.5E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 16/0600: 11.9S 130.4E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+36: 16/1800: 11.7S 130.1E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 996
+48: 17/0600: 11.7S 129.9E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 993
+60: 17/1800: 11.7S 129.6E: 200 [375]: 050 [095]: 990
+72: 18/0600: 12.0S 129.3E: 250 [465]: 050 [095]: 990
REMARKS:
The tropical low has intensified during the day, with improved rainband
curvature evident on radar. Good position based on surface observations and
radar animation. 0600UTC pilot data from Darwin Airport indicates NW 50kt below
7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt with 45 kt in squalls. Convective
structure slowly improving with 0.4 wrap of deep convection in northern
semicircle, yielding DT=2.0. FT based on PAT=MET=2.5.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa, displaced slightly to the N
or NW in middle levels. Deep convection limited to northern semicircle. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow northward progression
towards the Tiwi Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours, under the influence of
a strengthening low-level subtropical ridge to the south. Standard development
rate forecast after the system moves over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0746 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 130.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [316 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land.
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1800: 12.4S 130.5E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 16/0600: 11.9S 130.4E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+36: 16/1800: 11.7S 130.1E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 996
+48: 17/0600: 11.7S 129.9E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 993
+60: 17/1800: 11.7S 129.6E: 200 [375]: 050 [095]: 990
+72: 18/0600: 12.0S 129.3E: 250 [465]: 050 [095]: 990
REMARKS:
The tropical low has intensified during the day, with improved rainband
curvature evident on radar. Good position based on surface observations and
radar animation. 0600UTC pilot data from Darwin Airport indicates NW 50kt below
7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt with 45 kt in squalls. Convective
structure slowly improving with 0.4 wrap of deep convection in northern
semicircle, yielding DT=2.0. FT based on PAT=MET=2.5.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa, displaced slightly to the N
or NW in middle levels. Deep convection limited to northern semicircle. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow northward progression
towards the Tiwi Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours, under the influence of
a strengthening low-level subtropical ridge to the south. Standard development
rate forecast after the system moves over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River
Mouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island .
At 6:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was over land about 75 kilometres southwest of
Darwin and 70 kilometres west northwest of Batchelor and moving north northwest
at 7 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf and
may develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.
LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 90 kilometres per hour are expected with
squally showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the Tiwi
Islands.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, during
Wednesday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
Tiwi Islands late Thursday if the cyclone continues to intensify.
HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart
including the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 130.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north northwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River
Mouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island .
At 6:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was over land about 75 kilometres southwest of
Darwin and 70 kilometres west northwest of Batchelor and moving north northwest
at 7 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf and
may develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.
LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 90 kilometres per hour are expected with
squally showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the Tiwi
Islands.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, during
Wednesday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
Tiwi Islands late Thursday if the cyclone continues to intensify.
HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart
including the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 130.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north northwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Very hard call this one, much depends on what the system further west does, if the system recurves into E.Australia quickly before this one even manages to emerge from land then it probably won't have much of a chance to develop much, but then again in the ECM is correct and the system gets overwater for a more significant time, then its got a very real chance of developing as conditions look decent enough aloft.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (17U/99S)
This one should take the well journeyed path down along the Pilbara Coast.....usually interesting times here in Port Hedland with these systems that start where this one has, only time will tell though I suppose
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I think this system is going to need watching, conditions look decent aloft so then it simply becomes a case of how quickly and for how long it manages to get over water for...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
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- Contact:
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1319 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: north [349 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 12.2S 130.7E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1001
+24: 16/1200: 11.9S 130.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 17/0000: 11.8S 130.2E: 125 [230]: 045 [080]: 994
+48: 17/1200: 11.8S 130.0E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 992
+60: 18/0000: 12.0S 129.6E: 205 [375]: 050 [095]: 990
+72: 18/1200: 12.3S 129.4E: 250 [465]: 055 [100]: 987
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to intensify with a strong rainband and curvature on
radar. Good position based on surface observations, radar not so good with radar
images intermittent in past few hours. Wind 0600UTC pilot data from Darwin
Airport indicates NW 50kt below 7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt with 45
kt in squalls. Convective structure slowly improving with 0.4 wrap of deep
convection in northern semicircle, yielding DT=2.5. FT based on PAT=MET=2.5.
Darwin experiencing very heavy rainfall with northern suburbs over 200mm since
9am and near gales observed at the Airport with gusts to 50 knots.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa, displaced slightly to the N
or NW in middle levels. Deep convection limited to northern semicircle. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow northward progression
towards the Tiwi Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours, under the influence of
a strengthening low-level subtropical ridge to the south. Standard development
rate forecast after the system moves over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1319 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: north [349 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 12.2S 130.7E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 1001
+24: 16/1200: 11.9S 130.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 17/0000: 11.8S 130.2E: 125 [230]: 045 [080]: 994
+48: 17/1200: 11.8S 130.0E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 992
+60: 18/0000: 12.0S 129.6E: 205 [375]: 050 [095]: 990
+72: 18/1200: 12.3S 129.4E: 250 [465]: 055 [100]: 987
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to intensify with a strong rainband and curvature on
radar. Good position based on surface observations, radar not so good with radar
images intermittent in past few hours. Wind 0600UTC pilot data from Darwin
Airport indicates NW 50kt below 7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt with 45
kt in squalls. Convective structure slowly improving with 0.4 wrap of deep
convection in northern semicircle, yielding DT=2.5. FT based on PAT=MET=2.5.
Darwin experiencing very heavy rainfall with northern suburbs over 200mm since
9am and near gales observed at the Airport with gusts to 50 knots.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa, displaced slightly to the N
or NW in middle levels. Deep convection limited to northern semicircle. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow northward progression
towards the Tiwi Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours, under the influence of
a strengthening low-level subtropical ridge to the south. Standard development
rate forecast after the system moves over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River
Mouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island.
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was over land about 50 kilometres southwest of
Darwin and 55 kilometres west northwest of Batchelor and moving north at 5
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf and may
develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.
LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 100 kilometres per hour are being experienced
with squally showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the
Tiwi Islands.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, during
Wednesday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
Tiwi Islands late Thursday if the cyclone continues to intensify.
HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart
including the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River
Mouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island.
At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was over land about 50 kilometres southwest of
Darwin and 55 kilometres west northwest of Batchelor and moving north at 5
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf and may
develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.
LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 100 kilometres per hour are being experienced
with squally showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the
Tiwi Islands.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, during
Wednesday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
Tiwi Islands late Thursday if the cyclone continues to intensify.
HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart
including the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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