SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

NRL : 65 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 24.8S 108.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 108.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.4S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.0S 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.5S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.9S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 33.1S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 36.5S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 108.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO FORM A LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A DEEP
RING OF CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
VERY LITTLE BANDING. ALSO EVIDENT IS REDUCED OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM
WITH ONLY WEAK OUTFLOW SEEN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK COMPLETELY ANNULAR AND HAS RETAINED SOME WEAK BANDING TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 241203Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP RING OF CONVECTION OPEN
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC AROUND A LARGE, WELL DEFINED EYE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15-20KTS), AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM. THE LAST 24
HOURS HAS SEEN THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM LAND AND
CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AT TAU 72 AND MOVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. VWS IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE INTO HOSTILE TERRITORY. THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 AND STARTS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS
THE CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AFTER
TAU 72. THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM THE LAST
WARNING TO DECREASE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIED FASTER THAN EXPECTED, AND ITS ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DESPITE THE
UPCOMING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1815 UTC 24/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 25.3S
Longitude: 107.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [239 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 26.9S 106.2E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 971
+24: 25/1800: 28.6S 105.0E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 978
+36: 26/0600: 30.5S 104.4E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 984
+48: 26/1800: 31.9S 104.1E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 990
+60: 27/0600: 32.8S 104.1E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 992
+72: 27/1800: 33.6S 103.7E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:

Shear has dropped to 10-15 knots over last 6 hours, with Carlos showing signs of
intensification and a transient eye. Both embedded centre and eye pattern dvorak
analysis show T4.5 and thus has reached category 3 intensity [65 knot mean
winds]. Likely to hold cat 3 intensity during Friday morning before weakening
again as even cooler waters area encountered despite decreasing shear.

The forecast track shows steady southwest motion under the influence of a middle
level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high
confidence in the consensus track due to low spread. The system is expected to
gradually weaken from Friday under moderate shear and decreasing ocean heat
content. In the longer term, southerly motion is expected due to the approach of
an upper trough.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[KWT]

Very interesting system, moving into the cooler waters is actually not hurting this system, sometimes you see similar looking systems that form and strengthen over cooler waters in the N.Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 107.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 107.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.1S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 29.0S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.8S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 32.3S 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS LAGGED AND PARTIALLY
DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED AND SHRUNK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. TC 15S HAS SLOWED DOWN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD
DIRECTION WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) DECREASE. BY TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND IN ADDITION TO THE LOW SST'S, TC CARLOS
WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1228UTC 25 FEBRUARY 2011

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Carlos was estimated to be within 30 nautical
miles of
latitude twenty seven decimal eight south (27.8S)
longitude one hundred and five decimal three east (105.3E)
Recent movement : southwest at 11 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 978 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 40 knots by 0600 UTC 26
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre until 1800 UTC 25
February, with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 29.6 south 104.1 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 26 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 31.4 south 103.6 east
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 February 2011.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

not much longer before it's a goner!

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 29.2S 104.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2S 104.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.0S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 104.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
WEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(< 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING BELOW 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 20 FEET.//
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