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WPAC: Invest 91W
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StormingB81
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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS,
PROJECT WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
Latest GFS
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT, ALBEIT BROAD, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS,
PROJECT WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
Latest GFS
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StormingB81
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W
Seems like there's a broad area of convection over that area. Wind shear still a bit unfriendly but is somehow decreasing for the past few hours. I'm not expecting that much from this invest but it would be interesting to see the development.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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StormingB81
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HURAKAN
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE LLCC AND TO THE WEST. THE CONVECTION REMAINS
GENERALLY UNORGANIZED, BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE DEEPER CONVECTION, INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION
MIGHT BE BUILDING INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A
SHEAR LINE WITH STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS, PROJECT WEAK DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE LLCC AND TO THE WEST. THE CONVECTION REMAINS
GENERALLY UNORGANIZED, BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE DEEPER CONVECTION, INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION
MIGHT BE BUILDING INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A
SHEAR LINE WITH STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFS, PROJECT WEAK DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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Grifforzer
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ABPW10 PGTW 251930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251930Z-260600ZFEB2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
141.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LLCC IS STILL UNORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH THE MEAN SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE
AT PALAU IS 1004 MB. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SHEAR LINE WITH
STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251930Z-260600ZFEB2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
141.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LLCC IS STILL UNORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH THE MEAN SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE
AT PALAU IS 1004 MB. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SHEAR LINE WITH
STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONVECTION AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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RobWESTPACWX
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: Invest 91W
We'll be heading to Maasin, Leyte in Visayas tomorrow, and I guess our mountain hiking will be affected by this. Seeing that thick convection, I think this will be a rainmaker over the southern portions of the Philippines. Bad news for the provinces in Visayas and Mindanao that experienced extreme rainfall over the past few months.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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