97S - Southwest Indian Ocean

[Grifforzer]

AWIO20 FMEE 071106
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:

East of 65E, ITCZ is weak and scattered within a near equatorial
trough. West of 60E, it is fed by a poor trans-equatorial monsoon flow
extending down to 15S in the Mozambique Channel. Convective
activity is moderate to strong but very fluctuating within a very
weak low level clockwise circulation (estimated at about 1008 hPa).
It is ill-defined and approximately centered near 16S 42E (ASCAT
07/0701Z).

From Tuesday, European NWP models forecast a slow deepening for
this low due to low level inflow that is expected to improve along
African coastline equatorward and favorable upper level conditions
under a high-tropospheric ridge.

There is no other suspect area on the basin.

For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected.
Beyond potential becomes fair in the Mozambique Channel.

[HurricaneBill]

The southwest Indian Ocean has been real quiet so far this season.

[Grifforzer]

AWIO20 FMEE 081159
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/08 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
East of 50E, ITCZ is axed along 5S with a weak and scattered
associated convective activity.

West of 50E and over the northern channel, it is located between
10S and 15S. Fed by a transequatorial monsoon flow present between
the African coastlines and 45E, thunderstorm activity is locally
strong over the Comoros archipelago and Mayotte (64 mm during the
last 24h at Grande Comoros International Airport at 06Z).
Satellite imagery suggest that a weak and ill-defined LLCC is
located south of ITCZ and close to the Mozambican coast. It is
centered at 10Z near 16S 41E with a MSLP at 1008 hPa and weak winds
in the 5/15 kt range. 24h variation of surface pressure at nearby
stations indicate some slow falling for the Mozambique stations, no
change at Juan de Nova and rising for the Comoros archipelago and
northwestern coast of Madagascar.

Within the next three days, this system should gradually move on a
southwestwards or west southwestwards track and stay close to the
Mozambique coast. It could make landfall Thursday night or Friday
near Quelimane. As the system is expected to remain close to land,
potential for significant intensification appear limited. However
as other environmental conditions are good (SST in the 29C range -
good upper level divergence and weak wind shear under the upper
level ridge), it is too soon to state that a cyclogenesis is
unlikely in the sector ...

For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected.
Beyond potential is dowgraded to poor in the Mozambique Channel.

[HURAKAN]

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