S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Hmmm,now down to 1001 mbs.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

SL, 90, 2011031318, , BEST, 0, 200S, 408W, 30,1001 LO

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues to develop this into a decent cyclone,but not as strong as what GFDL has.

[henrique]

We have an archipelago very close to this system.It has a scientific station in order to monitore.It is called "Trindade and Martim Vaz".20°31′30″S 29°19′30″W for google earth.

[cycloneye]

Welcome to Storm2k henrique. You came at the right time as this system is in that area,just east of your country. If you have information from that station or from the Brazil mets,dont hesitate to post it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest loop

[cycloneye]

GFDL has backed off from the cat 2 scenario,but still develops it to a 70kt cyclone.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Chacor]

Brazil:

PART TWO - ANALYSIS AT 131200
LOW 1004 AT 20S046W PREDICTED TO DEVELOP TO A SUBTROPICAL
CICLONE IN THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS.

[wxman57]

The latest position (20S/40.8W) is about 45 miles inland. However, visible imagery suggests a center just offshore near 21.3N/40.5W. A moderate cold front is approaching from the south. GFS merges the low with the front and carries it out to sea. Looks reasonable.

[cycloneye]

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
857 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2011

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

THE NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-BRAZILIAN NAVY (SMM)...IN
COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY
(INMET)...CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE COAST OF ESPIRITO SANTO/RIO DE
JANEIRO. AS REQUIRED...THEY WILL ISSUE THE NECESSARY ADVISORIES.

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 00UTC MAR 14). AT 200 HPA A RIDGE NOW
ENVELOPS CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30S...AS IT CENTERS ON
CLOSED HIGHS NEAR 23S 57W AND 26S 49W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG 34S 30W...25S 40W...TO 20S 50W.
THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS RIO DE
JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO/MINAS GERAIS IN BRASIL.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxsa20.html

[HURAKAN]

the low appears to be taking shape offshore

[cycloneye]

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1257 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2011

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SPECIAL STATEMENT...A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF VITORIA IN BRASIL
REMAINS THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN...AS IT MIGHT DEVELOP INTO A WARM
CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NAVY
HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-BRAZILIAN NAVY (SMM)...IN COORDINATION WITH
THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY (INMET)...WILL ISSUE THE
NECESSARY ADVISORIES.

MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00UTC MAR 14): SOUTH OVER THE
DOMAIN...THE GFS AND UKMET AGREE QUITE WELL ON PATTERN EVOLUTION
THROUGH DAY 05...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIVERGE AS EARLY AS
60 HRS. BOTH THE GFS/UKMET FAVOR A DEEP/BROAD TROUGH TO ESTABLISH
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC LATER IN THE CYCLE...A SOLUTION WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...IN CONTRAST...FAVORS A WEAKER/LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO
MOVE TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHERN CONE LATER IN THE CYCLE.

AT UPPER LEVELS...A 200 HPA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF 30S DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ON
A CLOSED HIGH JUST EAST OF ESPIRITO SANTO/BAHIA IN BRASIL DURING
THE NEXT 72-96 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE...
WHILE A NEW ONE DEVELOPS OVER MATO GROSSO DO SUL IN BRASIL.

AT LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED JUST EAST OF
VITORIA. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES...CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE STARTING TO WRAP AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW...AIDING WITH TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE MODELS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WHILE THE
ECMWF-UKMET-CANADIAN MODELS TAKE A GUARDED APPROACH. THEY MIGHT
BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GFDL WAS SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS THIS SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER WARM WATER DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...ANY ADVISORY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE GOVERNMENT OF BRASIL. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPIRITO SANTO-MINAS GERAIS AND BAHIA IN
BRASIL... WITH MAXIMA ON DAY 01 FORECAST TO PEAK AT 30-60MM. ON
DAY 02...AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...MAXIMA WILL DECREASE
TO 20-35MM. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED ON DAY 03.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxsa21.html

[vegastar]

Floater on:





Seems to be acquiring tropical characteristics.

[HURAKAN]

The LLC is taking shape

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Down to 1000 mbs.

SL, 90, 2011031418, , BEST, 0, 227S, 402W, 30, 1000, LO

[Cryomaniac]

The following post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any information, as such it should not be used for any purpose

That looks to me (a complete amateur) like a weak TD. It is odd to see it spinning the opposite way that we're used to in the Atlantic though

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any information, as such it should not be used for any purpose

That looks to me (a complete amateur) like a weak TD. It is odd to see it spinning the opposite way that we're used to in the Atlantic though

Yea, I wouldn't quite go that far, but it certainly is developing. I don't think its quite closed off yet.


We are still looking for east and southeast winds as of the last ASCAT pass.

[P.K.]

It would appear they now have this as a Subtropical Depression.

VALIDO ATE 171200.
PARTE DOIS - ANALISE DO TEMPO EM 141200
BAIXA 982 EM 42S045W. DEPRESSAO SUBTROPICAL 1004 EM 22S040W.
ALTA 1018 EM 35S060W. ALTA 1028 EM 35S005W. FRENTE FRIA EM 45S036W,
40S037W, 35S039W, 30S044W E 28S048W MOVENDO-SE COM 15 NOS PARA SE/E.
FRENTE FRIA ENTRE VITORIA E CARAVELAS ESTENDENDO-SE PARA SE
E MOVENDO-SE COM 05 NOS PARA SE/E.
ZCIT EM 01N020W, 00N030W, 02N040W E 03N050W COM FAIXA DE 3/4
GRAUS DE LARGURA COM PANCADAS ISOLADAS DE CHUVA
MODERADA/FORTES EM TODA A FAIXA.

Edit - The English translation.

PART TWO - ANALYSIS AT 141200

LOW 982 AT 42S045W. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 AT 22S040W. HIGH 1018 AT 35S060W. HIGH 1028 AT 35S005W. COLD FRONT AT 45S036W, 40S037W, 35S039W, 30S044W AND 28S048W MOVING WITH 15 KTS TO SE/E. COLD FRONT OVER VITÓRIA AND CARAVELAS EXTENDING TO SE AND MOVING WITH 05 KTS TO SE/E.

[cycloneye]

P.K ,do you know if Brazil has a list of names to be used?

[cycloneye]

Looks better organized than this morning.

[Hurricanehink]

It would appear they now have this as a Subtropical Depression.

VALIDO ATE 171200.
PARTE DOIS - ANALISE DO TEMPO EM 141200
BAIXA 982 EM 42S045W. DEPRESSAO SUBTROPICAL 1004 EM 22S040W.
ALTA 1018 EM 35S060W. ALTA 1028 EM 35S005W. FRENTE FRIA EM 45S036W,
40S037W, 35S039W, 30S044W E 28S048W MOVENDO-SE COM 15 NOS PARA SE/E.
FRENTE FRIA ENTRE VITORIA E CARAVELAS ESTENDENDO-SE PARA SE
E MOVENDO-SE COM 05 NOS PARA SE/E.
ZCIT EM 01N020W, 00N030W, 02N040W E 03N050W COM FAIXA DE 3/4
GRAUS DE LARGURA COM PANCADAS ISOLADAS DE CHUVA
MODERADA/FORTES EM TODA A FAIXA.

Edit - The English translation.

PART TWO - ANALYSIS AT 141200

LOW 982 AT 42S045W. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 AT 22S040W. HIGH 1018 AT 35S060W. HIGH 1028 AT 35S005W. COLD FRONT AT 45S036W, 40S037W, 35S039W, 30S044W AND 28S048W MOVING WITH 15 KTS TO SE/E. COLD FRONT OVER VITÓRIA AND CARAVELAS EXTENDING TO SE AND MOVING WITH 05 KTS TO SE/E.

Where did that advisory come from? Is there a link for it online?