BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201103101934
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011031018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011030918, , BEST, 0, 338N, 154W, 30, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011031000, , BEST, 0, 335N, 156W, 30, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011031006, , BEST, 0, 338N, 162W, 30, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011031012, , BEST, 0, 338N, 171W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011031018, , BEST, 0, 337N, 182W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
ATL: INVEST 90L
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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ATL: INVEST 90L
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pepeavilenho
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
Macrocane wrote:Wow! I didn't see this coming!
Same thinking.
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
Getting an early jump on the season I guess! This is the STS looking storm.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
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HURAKAN
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TWD:
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC...A 1008 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 34N17W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR AREA ALONG
30N13W 27N16W 25N20W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTED
WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW SUPPORTS THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION LINGERING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC...A 1008 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 34N17W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR AREA ALONG
30N13W 27N16W 25N20W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTED
WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW SUPPORTS THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION LINGERING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L
I don't think we'll be creating a separate model thread for this one, so...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR
000
WHXX01 KWBC 101936
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1935 UTC THU MAR 10 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110310 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110310 1800 110311 0600 110311 1800 110312 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.7N 18.2W 33.5N 19.1W 32.4N 19.1W 30.6N 17.5W
BAMD 33.7N 18.2W 33.5N 18.0W 32.6N 13.4W 34.7N 4.6W
BAMM 33.7N 18.2W 33.4N 18.9W 32.0N 18.7W 30.0N 13.6W
LBAR 33.7N 18.2W 34.0N 17.8W 33.8N 16.4W 33.3N 13.4W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 31KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110312 1800 110313 1800 110314 1800 110315 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 12.5W 35.6N 9.1W 39.6N 9.9W 41.9N 10.5W
BAMD 37.9N .1E 43.9N 4.6E 48.0N 7.5E 50.2N 7.0E
BAMM 31.7N .0W 37.9N 9.9E 41.9N 11.1E 45.0N 10.6E
LBAR 33.0N 9.6W 31.8N .6E 35.0N 10.9E .0N .0W
SHIP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.7N LONCUR = 18.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.8N LONM12 = 16.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 33.8N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR
000
WHXX01 KWBC 101936
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1935 UTC THU MAR 10 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110310 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110310 1800 110311 0600 110311 1800 110312 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.7N 18.2W 33.5N 19.1W 32.4N 19.1W 30.6N 17.5W
BAMD 33.7N 18.2W 33.5N 18.0W 32.6N 13.4W 34.7N 4.6W
BAMM 33.7N 18.2W 33.4N 18.9W 32.0N 18.7W 30.0N 13.6W
LBAR 33.7N 18.2W 34.0N 17.8W 33.8N 16.4W 33.3N 13.4W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 31KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110312 1800 110313 1800 110314 1800 110315 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 12.5W 35.6N 9.1W 39.6N 9.9W 41.9N 10.5W
BAMD 37.9N .1E 43.9N 4.6E 48.0N 7.5E 50.2N 7.0E
BAMM 31.7N .0W 37.9N 9.9E 41.9N 11.1E 45.0N 10.6E
LBAR 33.0N 9.6W 31.8N .6E 35.0N 10.9E .0N .0W
SHIP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.7N LONCUR = 18.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.8N LONM12 = 16.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 33.8N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L
Weak convection, cold water beneath it. Not much chance of it doing anything different than it has for the past 3-4 days. I'm sure the NHC thinks the same, but they're running some model guidance on it for a variety of reasons.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L
Sure they invest it, just after I called it anything but tropical. 
It is beginning to wrap in some moisture.
It is beginning to wrap in some moisture.
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L
So the NHC won't be doing yellow, orange, and red codes on this unless they need to right?
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Parungo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L
Here you have, from Meteored Forum
Algunas imágenes más que acompañan a las explicaciones que dio Nimbus:
- Diagrama de Fase: symmetric warm core.
- SST marginal.
- Cizalladura.
- Ramal del Jet.
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