SIO: CHERONO (07R/18S) - Tropical Depression

[senorpepr]

WTIO30 FMEE 171837


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)

2.A POSITION 2011/03/17 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 74.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050
34 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/18 06 UTC: 16.9S/72.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM

[Macrocane]

Latest from JTWC:

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 74.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 74.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.1S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.8S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.9S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.5S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 24.1S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 73.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (CHERONO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND
INTERPOLATED FROM A 171543Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE (>26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC
18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES,
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BECOME MORE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL
AND RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR 18S. AROUND TAU 72, VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE TC 18S TO BEGIN
WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
48HRS, HOWEVER ECMWF AND GFDN CURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE IN LATER TAUS. EGRR
SOLUTIONS TREND MORE NORTHWARD, INDICATING POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE RIDGE NEAR MADAGASCAR AFTER TAU 48. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 70 KNOTS FROM 55 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.
//

[Macrocane]

La Reunion says 40 kt:

ZCZC 524
WTIO30 FMEE 180049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/18 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 74.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 090 SE: 160 SO: 080 NO: 080
34 KT NE: 060 SE: 090 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/18 12 UTC: 16.7S/71.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/03/19 00 UTC: 17.4S/68.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2011/03/19 12 UTC: 18.5S/66.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2011/03/20 00 UTC: 19.8S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/03/20 12 UTC: 20.6S/59.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/03/21 00 UTC: 21.7S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 22/03/2011 00 UTC: 24.9S/53.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
120H: 23/03/2011 00 UTC: 29.3S/53.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.0
CONVECTION IMPROVED CLOSE TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
UPPER LEVELS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MONSOON INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE PROGRESSIVLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND WEAKEN BEYOND.
CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UP TO 36 TAU. BEYOND SYSTEM
SHOULD UNDERGO A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP MID
LATITUDES TROUGH.
LAST NWP OUTCOMES ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBROPICAL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BEYOND SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST A RECURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARD AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. PRESENT FORECA
ST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181250
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/18 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 70.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 075 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/19 00 UTC: 17.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/03/19 12 UTC: 19.1S/64.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/03/20 00 UTC: 20.4S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/03/20 12 UTC: 21.4S/59.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2011/03/21 00 UTC: 22.2S/56.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2011/03/21 12 UTC: 23.0S/54.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 22/03/2011 12 UTC: 25.7S/52.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
120H: 23/03/2011 12 UTC: 28.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=3.0
OVERALL PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING TREND
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. AQUA OF 0853Z SHOW AN EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF CONVECTION SUGGESTING SOME NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT.
HOWEVER IT IS NOT INDICATED ON CIMSS ANALYSIS. AN ARC OF CIRRUS IS SEEN
ON BOTH IR AND
WV IMAGERY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
MOREOVER MIMIC TPW STILL SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER LEVELS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORABLE UP TO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP MID LATITUDES TROUGH.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE
CURRENT TREND AND LAST STIPS OUTPUT, INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS BEEN
LOWERED IN THIS PACKAGE.
00Z NWP OUTCOMES REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT 60 TO 72 HOURS. BEYOND SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST A SOUTHWARDS
RECURVATURE AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. AT
DAY 4 AND DAY 5, AND ACCORDING TO NWP FIELDS, A STRONG WEAKNESS SHOUL
APPEAR WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND MAY RESULT IN
A SOUTHWARDS TURN OF THE RESIDUAL LOW.
UNHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE ISLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

[Macrocane]

Latest from JTWC

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.5S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.6S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.6S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.8S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.2S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 71.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (CHERONO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 180256Z SSMIS 37H GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE COINCIDES
WITH A RECENT 180450Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATES WEAK 15- TO 20-
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND STRONGER
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN TO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE ASCAT
ALSO DEPICTS STRONG 30-KNOT GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH. TC 18S HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS LIKELY BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE AND DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND INTERPOLATED
FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TC CHERONO IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. AT THAT TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 18S SHOULD CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>26 DEGREES CELSIUS). AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND BEGIN WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN POLEWARD. ECMWF QUICKLY TURNS THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD, WHILE NOGAPS, UKMO, AND GFDN CONTINUE TRACKING IT
FARTHER TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Île Rodrigues bulletin: (translations by me in italics)

AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE Cyclone Warning

UN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES. A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.
UN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES. A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.

1ER BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 17H00 CE VENDREDI 18 MARS 2011. 1st cyclone bulletin, issued at 5 pm, Friday March 18 2011.

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODERE CHERONO ETAIT CENTRE A 16H00 The Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono was centred at 4 pm
AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 DEG SUD EN LATITUDE ET LONGITUDE around the point 16.8 degrees south in latitude and longitude
70.8 DEG EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 800 KM AU NORD-EST DE RODRIGUES. 70.8 degrees east, or about 800 km northeast of Rodrigues.
ELLE SE DEPLACE VERS LOUEST-SUD-OUEST A UNE VITESSE DENVIRON It was moving to the west-southwest at a speed of about
22 KM/H. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE CHERONO SAPPROCHE DE RODRIGUES. 22 km/h. On this path Cherono approaches Rodrigues.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES. A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE PRENDRE DES PRECAUTIONS PRELIMINAIRES. The public is advised to take preliminary precautions.

LE TEMPS SERA NUAGEUX AVEC DES AVERSES PASSAGERES. The weather will be cloudy with occasional passing showers.

VENT DU SUD-EST DE 35-45 KM/H ET DES RAFALES DE LORDRE DE 80 KM/H South-easterly winds of 35-45 km/h (20-30 mph) with gusts of the order of 80 km/h (50 mph)
DEMAIN. tomorrow.

LA MER SERA FORTE AVEC DES HOULES. The sea will be strong with swells.

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE NE PAS SAVENTURER EN MER. IL Y AUSSI The public is advised not to approach the sea. There are also
DES RISQUES DE RAZ MAREES. risks of storm tides.

LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA EMIS A 22H00. The next bulletin will be issued at 10 pm.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[senorpepr]

WTIO30 FMEE 181845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 69.7E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 090
34 KT NE: 035 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 035
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/19 06 UTC: 18.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM

[Macrocane]

according to the latest JTWC warning Cherono is at its peak and will remain at 40 kts for 12 hours more:

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 69.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 69.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.2S 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.1S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.8S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (CHERONO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CONVECTION OVER TC 18S AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY IMPROVED
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED DIRECTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ERODING AS A
WEAK TROUGH JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST IS CREATING CONVERGENCE WITH THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS, COUPLED WITH DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT,
EVIDENT ON THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS RESTRAINED
THE CYCLONE FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO
T3.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC CHERONO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER WATER IN 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest loop

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 190053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/19 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 68.4E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 550 SO: 550 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 070 SE: 160 SO: 130 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/19 12 UTC: 18.6S/65.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/03/20 00 UTC: 19.5S/62.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/03/20 12 UTC: 20.7S/59.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/03/21 00 UTC: 21.4S/57.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/03/21 12 UTC: 22.1S/54.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/03/22 00 UTC: 23.3S/53.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 23/03/2011 00 UTC: 26.4S/52.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5+
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH CONVECTION
EXISTING MAINLY IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ASCAT METOP PASS 1722Z
CONFIRMS THIS ASYMMETRY WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND CLEARLY WEAKER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE AND ALSO DVORAK ANALYZIS IS DELICATE. MTS STAGE IS
MAINTAINED IN VIEW OF PASS ASCAT WINDS.
NWP MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD
TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
CMRS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTY TO THE NORTH OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WITH UPPER LEVELS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVORABLE UNTIL END
OF THE DAY SATURDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY BEFORE TO UNDERGO
A STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP MID LATITUDES
TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 72, SOME OF MODELS FORECAST A SOUTHWARD RECURVATURE AND OTHER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. AT DAY 4 AND DAY
5, AND ACCORDING TO NWP FIELDS, A STRONG WEAKNESS SHOULD APPEAR WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND MIGHT RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD
TURN OF THE RESIDUAL LOW.
UNHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE ISLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

UN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
UN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

4EME BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 10H10 CE SAMEDI 19 MARS 2011.

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO ETAIT CENTRE A 10H00 EN
LATITUDE 18.8 DEGRES SUD ET LONGITUDE 67.8 DEGRES EST, SOIT A
ENVIRON 440 KM A L`EST-NORD-EST DE RODRIGUES.

ELLE SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-OUEST A ENVIRON 20 KM/H. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE CHERONO S`APPROCHE DE RODRIGUES.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE 1 EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE PRENDRE DES PRECAUTIONS PRELIMINAIRES.

LE TEMPS SERA NUAGEUX AVEC DES AVERSES PLUS FREQUENTES LA NUIT.

VENT DU SUD-EST DE 35-45 KM/H AVEC RAFALES ATTEIGNANT 80 KM/H LA
NUIT.

MER FORTE ET HOULEUSE.
LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE NE PAS S`AVENTURER EN MER.
IL Y A AUSSI UN RISQUE DE RAZ DE MAREE A L`HEURE DES MAREES
MONTANTES.

LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA EMIS A VERS 16H00


Translation:
A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.
A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.

4th cyclone bulletin, issued at 10:10 am, Saturday 19 March 2011.

The moderate tropical storm Cherono was centred at 10 am at
latitude 18.8 degrees south and longitude 67.8 degrees east, or
about 440 km east-northeast of Rodrigues.

It is moving to the southwest at around 20 km/h. On this path,
Cherono will approach Rodrigues.

A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.

The public is advised to take preliminary precautions.

The weather will be cloudy, with frequent showers at night.

Southeasterly winds of 35-45 km/h with gusts reaching 80 km/h at night.

Sea strong and choppy.
The public is advised not to adventure into the sea.
There is also the risk of storm tides at the time of high tide.

Next bulletin issued at 4 pm.

[senorpepr]

WTIO30 FMEE 190700


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/7/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (CHERONO)

2.A POSITION 2011/03/19 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 67.4E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 070 SE: 550 SO: 550 NO: 070
34 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 220 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/19 18 UTC: 20.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM

[Macrocane]

Latest JTWC warning:

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (CHERONO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.1S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.0S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.1S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.5S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (CHERONO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE
HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY, HOWEVER, IS
ASSESSED HIGHER AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 19/0431Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE,
WHICH INDICATES NUMEROUS 40-KNOT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
AND A 19/0156Z TRMM 37V IMAGE DEPICTING A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. RECENT
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
DESPITE THE IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE, TC 18S CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS, AND LACKS
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 18S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36 BUT SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT DUE TO MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO BUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
INDICATES DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WTIO30 FMEE 191303 CCA

*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-CHERONO)

2.A POSITION 2011/03/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 66.0E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 280 SO: 280 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 470 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/20 00 UTC: 20.4S/63.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/20 12 UTC: 21.5S/60.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/21 00 UTC: 22.4S/57.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/03/21 12 UTC: 23.3S/55.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/03/22 00 UTC: 24.3S/52.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/03/22 12 UTC: 25.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 23/03/2011 12 UTC: 28.5S/52.7E DISSIPATING.


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT SYSTEM IS UNDRGOING A
STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE CONVECTION.
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT DATA AT 04.32TU, MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE FROM 20/25KT, BUT THERE ARE STILL NEAR GALE FORCE
AND LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEN SEMI-CIRCLE. SO SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYZE AND NWP MODELS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROCHING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A REGENERATION.
HOWEVER STRONG NEAR GALE FORCE SHOULD EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL
MONDAY.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIR GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WEST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE UP TO J+2/J+3.
THE MORE REALISTIC FORECAST BEYOND IS A RECURVE OF THE TRACK
SOUTH-EASTWARD IN RELATION WITH A GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE,
AND DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM.

UNHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT.

[Chacor]

AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE

UN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

UN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

5EME BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 16H10 CE SAMEDI 19 MARS 2011.

DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO A MONTREE DE SIGNES D`AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET ETAIT CENTRE A 16H00 EN
LATITUDE 19.5 DEGRES SUD ET LONGITUDE 66.0 DEGRES EST, SOIT A
ENVIRON 250 KM PRESQU`A L`EST DE RODRIGUES.
ELLE SE DEPLACE VERS OUEST-SUD-OUEST A ENVIRON 20 KM/H. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE CHERONO CONTINUE DE S`APPROCHER DE RODRIGUES.

DUE A LA PROXIMITE DE CHERONO A L`EST DE RODRIGUES ET CONSIDERANT
UN INFLECHISSEMENT QUI APPROCHERAIT LA TEMPETE PLUS PRES DE
RODRIGUES, ET LE RISQUE D`UNE INTENSIFICATION, L`ALERTE DE CLASS 1
EST MAINTENUE SUR RODRIGUES.

LE TEMPS SERA COUVERT AVEC DES FORTES AVERSES ACCOPAGNEES D`ORAGES. IL Y AURA DES ACCUMULATIONS D`EAU AUX ABORDS DES COURS D`EAU.

LE PUBLIC EST CONSEILLE DE MAINTENIR TOUTES LES PRECAUTIONS
NECESSAIRES.

LE VENT SOUFFLERA DU SUD DE 35-45 KM/H AVEC RAFALES DE 80-100 KM/H.

Cyclone Warning

A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.

A cyclone warning, class one, is in force for Rodrigues.

5th cyclone bulletin, issued at 4:10 pm (12:10 pm UTC) Saturday 19 March 2011.

During the last few hours, the moderate tropical storm Cherono
has shown signs of weakening and was centred at 4 pm (12 pm UTC) at
latitude 19.5 degrees south and longitude 66.5 degrees east, or about
250 km east of Rodrigues.

It is moving west-southwest at around 20 km/h. On this
trajectory, Cherono continues to approach Rodrigues.

Due to the proximity of Cherono to the east of Rodrigues and considering
a shift of the storm closer to Rodrigues, and the risk of intensification,
the class one alert is maintained for Rodrigues.

The weather will be heavy rain accompanied by thunder. There will be
accumulation of water around rivers. [??]

The public is advised to maintain all necessary precautions.

There is a south wind of 35-45 km/h with gusts of 80-100 km/h.

[senorpepr]

WTIO30 FMEE 191837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-CHERONO)
2.A POSITION 2011/03/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 64.2E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 70 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 055
34 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 150 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 280 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/20 06 UTC: 21.0S/61.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/20 18 UTC: 22.1S/58.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/21 06 UTC: 22.9S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/03/21 18 UTC: 24.0S/54.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/03/22 06 UTC: 25.2S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/03/22 18 UTC: 26.9S/53.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 23/03/2011 18 UTC: 28.9S/56.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM STILL SHOW A SHEAR PATTERN WITH AN ESTIMATED LLCC LOCATED AT
MORE THAN 75 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF MAIN CONVECTION WHICH STILL SHOW SOME
FLUCTUATIONS. WIND STRUCTURE REMAIN VERY ASYMETRIC WITH ALL THE
STRONGEST WINDS (LIKELY UP TO GALES FORCE WINDS) LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
EX-CHERONO IS NOW RACING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS (260/13) AND IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 80 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. IT SHOULD PASS
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ISLAND AND THIS HIGH
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE MOST FAVOURABLE FOR THE ISLAND AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD REM
AIN OFFSHORE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUANDRANT AND SHOULD ALSO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYZE AND NWP MODELS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROCHING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A
REGENERATION.
HOWEVER STRONG NEAR GALE FORCE TO LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD EXIST
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL MONDAY.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIR GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE UP TO J+2/J+3.
THE MORE REALISTIC FORECAST BEYOND IS A RECURVE OF THE TRACK
SOUTH-EASTWARD IN RELATION WITH A GAP IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE,
AND DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM.

[Chacor]

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE N`EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE N`EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

7 EME ET DERNIER BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 04H10 CE DIMANCHE MATIN
20 MARS 2011.

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO S`EST AFFAIBLIE LEGEREMENT ET
ETAIT CENTREE CE MATIN A ENVIRON 80 KM PRESQUE AU SUD DE RODRIGUES,
SOIT PRES DU POINT 20.5 DEGRES SUD ET 63.0 DEGRES EST. ELLE
S`ELOIGNE DE RODRIGUES A ENVIRON 25 KM/HR ET A DEJA TRAVERSE SON
POINT LE PLUS RAPPROCHE DE L`ILE.

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE N`EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

LE TEMPS SERA NUAGEUX ACCOMPAGNE D`AVERSES PASSAGERES.

LE VENT SOUFFLERA DU NORD A 30 KM/H AVEC DES RAFALES DE 60 KM/H.

LA MER RESTE FORTE ET HOULEUSE.
LES SORTIES EN MER SONT DECONSEILLEES ET IL Y A UN RISQUE DE RAZ
DE MAREE A L`HEURE DES MAREES MONTANTES.

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE N`EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.=

No cyclone warning is in force for Rodrigues.

No cyclone warning is in force for Rodrigues.

7th and final cyclone bulletin, issued 4:10 am (0010 UTC) Sunday 20 March 2011.

Moderate tropical storm Cherono has weakened slightly, and
was centred this morning around 80 km almost south of Rodrigues,
or near the point 20.3 degrees south and 63.0 degrees east. It is
moving away from Rodrigues at about 25 km/h and has already crossed
its closest point of approach to the island.

No cyclone warning is in force for Rodrigues.

The weather will be cloudy accompanied by passing showers.

There is a northerly wind of 30 km/h with gusts of 60 km/h.

The sea remains strong and choppy.
Trips to the sea are not advised and there remains a risk of
storm tides during high tide.

No cyclone warning is in force for Rodrigues.=