Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
12:06 PM WST March 11 2011
tropical low [23U] near 8S 94E is expected to remain slow moving for the next couple of days. It is expected to briefly enter the Western Region early next week and may develop further before moving west of 90E on Monday or Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate
SIO: CHERONO (07R/18S) - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
SIO: CHERONO (07R/18S) - Tropical Depression
Last edited by senorpepr on Sat Mar 19, 2011 8:06 am, edited 7 times in total.
Reason: Edited to add Cherono
Reason: Edited to add Cherono
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
From La Reunion
AWIO20 FMEE 111138
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/10 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The basin is in a near-equatorial trough pattern that is stretching
along 10S East of 50E.
Convective activity is weak and very scattered except East of
Madagascar North of 20S.
According to the avalaible surface observations, no low level
circulation is associated
with this area of thunderstorm located
at the western extremity of the near equatorial trough and under
the upper level ridge axis. Convective activity is expected to
weaken up to 24 heures tau.
At the present time, there is nosuspect zone over our area of
responsability.
East of 90E, north-east of Cocos Islands, convective activity
remains fluctuating and loosely organized, but avalaible NWP models
analyze a broad low level circulation at the convergence between
monsoon and trade winds inflows, centered near 9S/95E. Minimal
estimated sea level pressure is 1004hPa. At the present time, upper
level wind shear is moderate and is unfavorable for the development
of this zone of disturbed weather. For the next 72 hours, NWP
models are in good agreement for a track south-westward to westward
and for a slow depening of this LLCC. It should enter our AOR on
sunday night or monday.
For the next 48hours, there is no potential for the development
of a tropical depression. Beyond, potential becomes poor to fair at
the extreme East of the basin.
AWIO20 FMEE 111138
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/03/10 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The basin is in a near-equatorial trough pattern that is stretching
along 10S East of 50E.
Convective activity is weak and very scattered except East of
Madagascar North of 20S.
According to the avalaible surface observations, no low level
circulation is associated
with this area of thunderstorm located
at the western extremity of the near equatorial trough and under
the upper level ridge axis. Convective activity is expected to
weaken up to 24 heures tau.
At the present time, there is nosuspect zone over our area of
responsability.
East of 90E, north-east of Cocos Islands, convective activity
remains fluctuating and loosely organized, but avalaible NWP models
analyze a broad low level circulation at the convergence between
monsoon and trade winds inflows, centered near 9S/95E. Minimal
estimated sea level pressure is 1004hPa. At the present time, upper
level wind shear is moderate and is unfavorable for the development
of this zone of disturbed weather. For the next 72 hours, NWP
models are in good agreement for a track south-westward to westward
and for a slow depening of this LLCC. It should enter our AOR on
sunday night or monday.
For the next 48hours, there is no potential for the development
of a tropical depression. Beyond, potential becomes poor to fair at
the extreme East of the basin.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Low 23U - Cocos Island
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 94.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A
REGION OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST EQUATORWARD
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
LLCC AND WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A
REGION OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST EQUATORWARD
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
LLCC AND WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO : INVEST 98S
The latest.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO : INVEST 98S
A floater has been added for this system
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO : INVEST 98S
Upgraded to Fair
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
88.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE
NORTHEAST OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
88.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE
NORTHEAST OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 137
WTIO20 FMEE 141221
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/03/2011 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 14/03/2011 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 85.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, IN THE WESTERN SEMI
-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM
THE CENTER.
STRONG BREEZE 25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
12.5S / 84.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2011/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
13.1S / 82.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN
WTIO20 FMEE 141221
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/03/2011 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 14/03/2011 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 85.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, IN THE WESTERN SEMI
-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM
THE CENTER.
STRONG BREEZE 25 KT AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
12.5S / 84.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2011/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
13.1S / 82.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 276
WTIO30 FMEE 141842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/14 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 85.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 890 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/15 06 UTC: 12.7S/83.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/03/15 18 UTC: 13.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/16 06 UTC: 13.7S/80.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/03/16 18 UTC: 14.0S/79.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2011/03/17 06 UTC: 14.5S/77.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/03/17 18 UTC: 14.9S/76.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/03/2011 18 UTC: 16.2S/72.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 19/03/2011 18 UTC: 19.0S/67.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0-
LATEST MW AND SCATT FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH STILL AN EXPOSED LLCC REMOVED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASCAT PASS OF 15:26Z CONFIRMS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AND SHOW THAT 30 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST LOCALLY
CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A MOTION THAT SHOULD SPEED UP A
LITTLE BIT LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALL
MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW A SLOW DOWN OF THE MOTION. A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK (NOT REFLECTED IN
THIS FORECAST) IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY AND FRIDAY, THE
HIGHS REBUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SOUTHWARDS
TURN IS L
IKELY AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARDS A STRONG HIGH TO MID LEVEL WEAKNESS.
EASTERLY WINDSHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION.
WEDNESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SO ... SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL GREAT FOR THIS
FORECAST (NORTH-EASTERLY WIND
SHEAR BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ON THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SST COOLER TOWARDS THE SOUTH). ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE LASTEST STIPS
OUTPUT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGH AT DAYS 4-5 ...
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 141842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/14 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 85.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 890 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/15 06 UTC: 12.7S/83.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/03/15 18 UTC: 13.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/03/16 06 UTC: 13.7S/80.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/03/16 18 UTC: 14.0S/79.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2011/03/17 06 UTC: 14.5S/77.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2011/03/17 18 UTC: 14.9S/76.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 18/03/2011 18 UTC: 16.2S/72.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
120H: 19/03/2011 18 UTC: 19.0S/67.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0-
LATEST MW AND SCATT FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH STILL AN EXPOSED LLCC REMOVED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASCAT PASS OF 15:26Z CONFIRMS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AND SHOW THAT 30 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST LOCALLY
CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A MOTION THAT SHOULD SPEED UP A
LITTLE BIT LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALL
MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW A SLOW DOWN OF THE MOTION. A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK (NOT REFLECTED IN
THIS FORECAST) IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY AND FRIDAY, THE
HIGHS REBUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SOUTHWARDS
TURN IS L
IKELY AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARDS A STRONG HIGH TO MID LEVEL WEAKNESS.
EASTERLY WINDSHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION.
WEDNESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SO ... SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL GREAT FOR THIS
FORECAST (NORTH-EASTERLY WIND
SHEAR BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ON THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SST COOLER TOWARDS THE SOUTH). ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE LASTEST STIPS
OUTPUT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGH AT DAYS 4-5 ...
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SIO : INVEST 98S
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
86.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE
NORTHEAST OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
86.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE
NORTHEAST OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 146
WTIO30 FMEE 151222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 83.6E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 888 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/16 00 UTC: 13.4S/81.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/03/16 12 UTC: 13.7S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2011/03/17 00 UTC: 14.2S/78.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/03/17 12 UTC: 14.5S/75.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/03/18 00 UTC: 14.7S/73.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2011/03/18 12 UTC: 15.2S/71.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/03/2011 12 UTC: 16.8S/66.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 20/03/2011 12 UTC: 18.4S/60.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.0 AND CI=2.0-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A STRONG EASTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT.
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT MORE THAN 250 KM FAR AWAY IN
THE
EAST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT KEEPS ON SHIFTING
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AT 09KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT
12H
TO 18H.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY FAVOURABLE ON
AND
AFTER THUESDAY OR FRIDAY OVER A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK
(WEAK
WINDHSEAR, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW AND EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES)
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING
ANYMORE.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 151222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 83.6E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 888 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/16 00 UTC: 13.4S/81.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/03/16 12 UTC: 13.7S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2011/03/17 00 UTC: 14.2S/78.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/03/17 12 UTC: 14.5S/75.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2011/03/18 00 UTC: 14.7S/73.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2011/03/18 12 UTC: 15.2S/71.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 19/03/2011 12 UTC: 16.8S/66.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 20/03/2011 12 UTC: 18.4S/60.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.0 AND CI=2.0-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A STRONG EASTERLY SHEARED CONSTRAINT.
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT MORE THAN 250 KM FAR AWAY IN
THE
EAST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT KEEPS ON SHIFTING
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AT 09KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT
12H
TO 18H.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY FAVOURABLE ON
AND
AFTER THUESDAY OR FRIDAY OVER A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK
(WEAK
WINDHSEAR, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW AND EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES)
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING
ANYMORE.=
NNNN
0 likes
WTIO30 FMEE 170017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 78.2E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/17 12 UTC: 15.2S/76.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/18 00 UTC: 15.8S/74.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/03/18 12 UTC: 16.5S/72.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2011/03/19 00 UTC: 17.2S/70.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/03/19 12 UTC: 18.4S/67.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/03/20 00 UTC: 19.9S/65.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 21/03/2011 00 UTC: 22.3S/62.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 22/03/2011 00 UTC: 27.7S/59.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ AND CI=2.0+
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REORGANIZED CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE
16/1400Z.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD ON THE BOTHS SIDES, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENINING AND SHOULD BECOME LESS CONSTRAINING IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE GLOBALLY WESTWARDS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME
DIRECTION THAN UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW EXISTS POLEWARD BUT NONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM HAS NOW A FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OF 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BEYOND IT SHOULD AGAIN UNDERGO A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF A MID LATITUDES TROUGH.
NWP MODELS ARE IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 78.2E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/17 12 UTC: 15.2S/76.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/03/18 00 UTC: 15.8S/74.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/03/18 12 UTC: 16.5S/72.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2011/03/19 00 UTC: 17.2S/70.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/03/19 12 UTC: 18.4S/67.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/03/20 00 UTC: 19.9S/65.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 21/03/2011 00 UTC: 22.3S/62.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 22/03/2011 00 UTC: 27.7S/59.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ AND CI=2.0+
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REORGANIZED CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE
16/1400Z.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD ON THE BOTHS SIDES, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENINING AND SHOULD BECOME LESS CONSTRAINING IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE GLOBALLY WESTWARDS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME
DIRECTION THAN UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW EXISTS POLEWARD BUT NONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM HAS NOW A FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OF 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BEYOND IT SHOULD AGAIN UNDERGO A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF A MID LATITUDES TROUGH.
NWP MODELS ARE IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
0 likes
TCFA:
WTXS21 PGTW 162230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 80.0E TO 16.3S 73.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 79.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
83.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 80.3E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS ALSO APPARENT ON A 16/1957Z AMSR MICROWAVE
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) REMAIN FAVORABLE. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172230Z.
WTXS21 PGTW 162230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 80.0E TO 16.3S 73.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 79.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
83.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 80.3E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC IS ALSO APPARENT ON A 16/1957Z AMSR MICROWAVE
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) REMAIN FAVORABLE. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172230Z.
0 likes
WTIO30 FMEE 170616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 76.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 050 SO: 040 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/17 18 UTC: 15.1S/74.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2011/03/18 06 UTC: 15.6S/72.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2011/03/18 18 UTC: 16.4S/70.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2011/03/19 06 UTC: 17.4S/68.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2011/03/19 18 UTC: 18.7S/65.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2011/03/20 06 UTC: 20.5S/63.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 21/03/2011 06 UTC: 25.0S/58.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 22/03/2011 06 UTC: 33.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- AND CI=2.5-
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REORGANIZED CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE
LAST
NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD ON THE BOTHS SIDES, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS
WEAKENED AND SHOULD BECOME LESS CONSTRAINING IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
GLOBALLY WESTWARDS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN
UPPER
LEVEL WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW EXISTS POLEWARD BUT NONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM HAS NOW A FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OF 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BEYOND IT SHOULD AGAIN UNDERGO A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD
OF A STRONG MID LATITUDES TROUGH.
NWP MODELS ARE IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2011/03/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5S / 76.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 050 SO: 040 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/03/17 18 UTC: 15.1S/74.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2011/03/18 06 UTC: 15.6S/72.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2011/03/18 18 UTC: 16.4S/70.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2011/03/19 06 UTC: 17.4S/68.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2011/03/19 18 UTC: 18.7S/65.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2011/03/20 06 UTC: 20.5S/63.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 21/03/2011 06 UTC: 25.0S/58.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 22/03/2011 06 UTC: 33.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- AND CI=2.5-
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REORGANIZED CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE
LAST
NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD ON THE BOTHS SIDES, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS
WEAKENED AND SHOULD BECOME LESS CONSTRAINING IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
GLOBALLY WESTWARDS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN
UPPER
LEVEL WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL OUTLOW EXISTS POLEWARD BUT NONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM HAS NOW A FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OF 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BEYOND IT SHOULD AGAIN UNDERGO A STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD
OF A STRONG MID LATITUDES TROUGH.
NWP MODELS ARE IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162221Z MAR 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 76.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 76.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.1S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.6S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.4S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.2S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.4S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND INTERPOLATED FROM A 170307Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE WEST AND
MAY BE HINDERING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
ARE FAVORABLE (>26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SSTS. HOWEVER, THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST COULD POTENTIALLY HINDER INTENSIFICATION MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AROUND TAU 72, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND CAUSE TC 18S TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT CURVES THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE
IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 162221Z MAR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 162230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
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- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 17 2011
At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono (995 hPa) located at 15.2S 75.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.
Gale Force Winds
Near the center
Near Gale Force Winds
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 15.9S 73.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 16.7S 70.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 18.4S 65.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.1S 61.3E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
Deep convective activity has re-organized closer to the center since last night. Conditions are becoming more favorable for a progressive reintensification. Low level inflow is good on the polar side, equatorial inflow is weak, but it is expected to improve slightly. An upper level outflow exists poleward but none is expected to build equatorward. System has now a favorable window for intensification of 2-3 days. Beyond, it should again undergo a strengthening vertical wind shear ahead of a strong mid latitude trough. Most of Numerical Weather Prediction models are in a good agreement for a track west southwestward on the northern edge of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 17 2011
At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono (995 hPa) located at 15.2S 75.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.
Gale Force Winds
Near the center
Near Gale Force Winds
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 15.9S 73.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 16.7S 70.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 18.4S 65.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.1S 61.3E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
Deep convective activity has re-organized closer to the center since last night. Conditions are becoming more favorable for a progressive reintensification. Low level inflow is good on the polar side, equatorial inflow is weak, but it is expected to improve slightly. An upper level outflow exists poleward but none is expected to build equatorward. System has now a favorable window for intensification of 2-3 days. Beyond, it should again undergo a strengthening vertical wind shear ahead of a strong mid latitude trough. Most of Numerical Weather Prediction models are in a good agreement for a track west southwestward on the northern edge of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
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Re: SIO : INVEST 98S
It's impressive how inactive the SIO basin has been, in a normal season we would have seen between 7 and 9 cyclones, I wonder why conditions are that bad out there, you can clearly see how this system is struggling.
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