SPO: BUNE (13F/19P) - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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SPO: BUNE (13F/19P) - Tropical Cyclone
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cycloneye
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Re: SPO: INVEST 99P
AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
17.4S 176.2W, 360NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS SHOWN INCREASED
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221610Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BUT WELL-DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
NADI, FIJI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 2 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
17.4S 176.2W, 360NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS SHOWN INCREASED
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221610Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BUT WELL-DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
NADI, FIJI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 2 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPO: INVEST 99P
It looks like is organizing.
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HURAKAN
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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/2257 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.2S 176.8W
AT 222100 UTC MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND
DEVELOPING. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE
ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTRUBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/2257 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.2S 176.8W
AT 222100 UTC MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND
DEVELOPING. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE
ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTRUBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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HURAKAN
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 17.4S 176.2W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 176.8W, 330NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KTS FROM
PGTW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
IMPROVING AND THE SUBSIDENCE PREVIOUSLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK IS EASING. A 221757Z WINDSAT PASS REVEALS
A MORE CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC, WITH 20-25 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLIES
FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. NADI, FIJI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 2 MB 24 HR
PRESSURE FALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 176.8W, 330NM EAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KTS FROM
PGTW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
IMPROVING AND THE SUBSIDENCE PREVIOUSLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK IS EASING. A 221757Z WINDSAT PASS REVEALS
A MORE CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC, WITH 20-25 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLIES
FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. NADI, FIJI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 2 MB 24 HR
PRESSURE FALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F (99P)
Excellent banding and good outflow, looks better than Cherono ever did in the SIO 
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cycloneye
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F (99P)
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
WTPS22 PGTW 230930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 20.7S 178.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230832Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 178.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 177.5W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KTS FROM PGTW AT 23/0832Z. 23/0000Z
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE,
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW. INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC IS EVIDENT ON A 23/0708Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240930Z.//
NNNN
WTPS22 PGTW 230930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 20.7S 178.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230832Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 178.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 177.5W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KTS FROM PGTW AT 23/0832Z. 23/0000Z
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE,
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW. INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC IS EVIDENT ON A 23/0708Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240930Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/0746 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S 177.8W AT
230600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND DEVELOPING.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLOING IN THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR TD 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 231400 UTC OR EARLIER.
Mar 23/0746 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S 177.8W AT
230600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND DEVELOPING.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLOING IN THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR TD 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 231400 UTC OR EARLIER.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/1403 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.0S 177.8W AT
231200 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND WITH
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG PROJECTED PATH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A SOUTHERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR TD13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232000 UTC OR EARLIER.
Mar 23/1403 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.0S 177.8W AT
231200 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEMS LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM
BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND WITH
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG PROJECTED PATH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A SOUTHERLY TRACK.
POTENTIAL FOR TD13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232000 UTC OR EARLIER.
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.8S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.5S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.2S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 179.5W.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 230921Z
MAR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 230930).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION
AND CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 231822Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS ABUNDANT CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SHOWS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCING OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE TROUGH IS CAUSING SOME INHIBITION OF
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE 19P
EXISTS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 19P IS CURRENTLY
STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LLCC, WHICH WILL RESUME A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
BRISBANE, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR JUST AFTER TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.8S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.5S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.2S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 179.5W.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 230921Z
MAR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 230930).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION
AND CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 231822Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS ABUNDANT CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SHOWS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCING OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE TROUGH IS CAUSING SOME INHIBITION OF
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL THE 19P
EXISTS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 19P IS CURRENTLY
STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LLCC, WHICH WILL RESUME A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
BRISBANE, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR JUST AFTER TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET.
//
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