SPO: BUNE (13F/19P) - Tropical Cyclone

[P.K.]

Cat 3, 70kts.

WTPS11 NFFN 251200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/1414 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 969HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5S
179.6W AT 251200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS. CYCLONE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28
TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST TRACK IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM BEING MORE DOMINANT. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON CURVED
BAND PATTERN 0.95 WRAP, GIVING DT=4.0, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.5. THEREFORE
T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE
SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.8S 180.0E MOV SW AT 2 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.2S 179.4E MOV WSW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 23.8S 178.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 24.5S 178.7E MOV S AT 4 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 252000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Macrocane]

That's a big eye! Could it be due to dry air entering into the center?

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 26/0702 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 SOUTH 180
AT 260600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.0S 180 AT 260600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY REINTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.7S 179.4E AT 261800 UTC
AND NEAR 24.8S 179.2E AT 270600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.

[HURAKAN]

Macrocane, dry air is the main suspect.

Latest microwave

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.0S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 179.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.6S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.7S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.4S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.0S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.1S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260600Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON A 27 NM RAGGED EYE APPEARING AT
26/0532Z IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 26/0629Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE VERIFIES THIS POSITION AS WELL. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS AHEAD OF A
MUCH STRONGER TROUGH. TC 19P IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE STR AND RESULT IN THE SYSTEM
TRACKING MORE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36,
TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270600Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looking annular

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 179.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 179.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.0S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.3S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.0S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.1S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 179.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 261653Z SSMI 37 GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE, FROM WHICH THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65
TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINTAINS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC BUNE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION OVER WARM WATERS
AT APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. BY TAU
36, TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE RECURVATURE AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 24.8S 178.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 178.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 26.2S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.7S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 29.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 32.3S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 178.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING 40 NM CONVECTIVE BANDING EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 270523Z SSMI
37 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 60 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN MOST QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED OUTFLOW ON
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. FURTHER EVIDENCE
OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS APPARENT AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC BUNE HAS BEGUN ERODING AND IS ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS
IT INTERACTS WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

STORM WARNING 654
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone BUNE [975hPa] centre was located near 26.4 South 179.8 East at 271800 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 26.4S 179.8E at 271800 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 5 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre.

Forecast position near 28.1S 178.8W at 280600 UTC
and near 30.7S 177.0W at 281800 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 648.

Issued at 8:07am Monday 28 March 2011

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.5S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 30.9S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.5S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 179.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A DEGRADATION OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
BUNE SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS (<26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 28.5S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.1S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.9S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 178.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A CENTRAL CORE
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PERIPHERY. TC 19P IS SLOWLY TAKING ON EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS A 28/0507Z SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
INDICATES DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DECREASING OUTFLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS APPARENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 28/0507Z
IMAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TC 19P AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND NUDGE TC BUNE'S TRACK
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. TC BUNE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 24 AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER ET. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 282100Z.//
NNNN