WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

[cycloneye]

[dhoeze]

Not looking for the past 2 hours... but definitely gonna bring in rains

[dexterlabio]

That broad system is still disorganized, but for me a little organization and turning can make it a potential cyclone.

[dhoeze]

Any forecasted track for this system incase it becomes a cyclone?
Is the winds blowing north north east of the Philippines strong enough to push this back to the pacific?

[dexterlabio]

^I got this feeling that if the invest develops into a cyclone, it will get eaten up by the frontal system and track to the north-northeast. Track models support cyclone development within the area, however their forecasts were wrong in the previous invests because no cyclone ever came up.

[dhoeze]

Thanks dex!

[RobWESTPACWX]

I agree Dex, this morning I passed that around here as well. It is a rather impressive area of convection. But as far as development to a full on system, highly unlikely. That said I agree with you dhoeze that Manila is going to get some precip. The afternoon heating combined with enhanced vorticity from the low will defiantly increase the precip. Have fun!

[RobWESTPACWX]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=gfs_wpac&dtg=2011033106&prod=prp&tau=096

On the 3rd GFS is really picking this up though, NGPS is there too but keeping it slightly weaker now. Maybe I was wrong about Manila, that front will defiantly eat it up but from the looks Palau and Guam are going to get the majority of this.

Any how point is W PAC tropical season starting to heat up. Worst time If I do say so myself.

[ManilaTC]

731
TXPN21 KNES 020937
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 11.0N

D. 130.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS SEEN IN 0459Z
AMSRE DATA. CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. POSITION ACCURATE
TO WITHIN 40 NM.

This is the latest...


NWS GUAM:
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS FOR CHUUK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT IS IN STORE
FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL PLAY OUT FOR CHUUK NEXT WEEK. BASED
ON ASCAT AND WINDSAT SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE
MONSOON CIRCULATION REMAINS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF
KOROR NEAR 10N131E. MODERATE TO FRESH SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHEAR LINE ARE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION TOWARD THE
CENTER. THIS COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT AND CAUSE THE CIRCULATION
TO BECOME A MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVERGING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS FEEDING INTO
THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
BOTH KOROR AND YAP UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. FOR NOW...AM EXPECTING
INCREASED WIND AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET AT BOTH LOCATIONS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF THE MONSOONAL
SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVES FARTHER
EAST...A TROUGH FOLLOWING BEHIND SHOULD STEER THE MONSOON SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN CNMI AFTER MONDAY.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Still watching this, I think it could develop in to something of a sub-tropical system as it gets wrapped up in the upper level trough to the North. Will bring a lot of rain to Guam and Siapan though.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 030000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 130.1E TO 12.9N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
022330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N
130.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 022000Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS
STRENGTHENED WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 021216Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH,
GENERALLY, 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER AND 25 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY (ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE EVENT). RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP INDICATE 10-15 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1005-1006 MB. THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND STRENGTHENING
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040000Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Will this be the first named storm of the WPAC?



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[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[P.K.]

06Z.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 09.6N 131.7E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Extratropical94]

from SSD:
03/1432 UTC 11.1N 133.2E T1.0/1.5 95W -- West Pacific

from JMA:
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031200.
...
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 10.1N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

from NRL:
1200Z: 10.9N 132.7E - 1007 mb, 20kt

[supercane]

While organized enough for PAGASA to call it Tropical Depression Amang:

Issued At: 5:00 a.m., 04 April 2011
Synopsis : At 2:00 a.m., today, Tropical Depression "AMANG" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 700 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar (11.5°N, 132.6°E) with maximum winds of 55 kph near the center. It is forecast to move Northeast at 15 kph.

Disorganized per latest satellite estimates:

TXPN21 KNES 032245 CCA
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B. 03/2033Z
C. 11.0N
D. 134.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI
H. REMARKS...CORRECTION FOR POSITION BASED ON NEW MICROWAVE PASS. VERY
GOOD MI PASS CLEARLY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LLC WELL SE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
AND WELL SE OF MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION/PRIOR CENTER. STILL CONVECTION
IS ABOUT 1.25 DEGREES FROM CENTER FOR DT OF 1.5. MET IS 2.0. PT IS
1.5. NOW WITH BETTER ESTIMATE OF CENTER LOCATION FT IS BASED ON DT.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 40 NM (74 KM).

OLD COMMENTS...OVERALL SYSTEM HAS LOST MUCH OF THE CONCENTRIC/CIRCULAR
LOOK AND APPEARS TO BE OPENING BACK INTO A WEAK LOW ON THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAS VERY CLOSE TO USING SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
METHOD UNTIL VERY LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED TO THE SE OF A MIDLEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT CAN BE TRACKED ON SWIR. THIS CONVECTIVE BURST IS .75
DEGREES FROM CENTER POSITION FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM 24HRS AGO CONVECTIVELY BUT NOT IN LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION FOR A
MET OF 2.0 AND SO IS CONSIDERED UNRELIABLE. PT IS 1.5. AS THERE IS NO
CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION...SHEAR METHOD AND DT IS UNRELIABLE AS
SUCH FT IS BASED ON PT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 100 NM (185 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
03/1944Z 10.9N 134.1E SSMI

...GALLINA

TPPN11 PGTW 040013

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (PHILIPPINE SEA)
B. 03/2332Z
C. 11.4N
D. 134.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. DT AND PT UNCLEAR. CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE FIRING IN THE STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1944Z 11.2N 134.0E SSMI

BRANDON

[HURAKAN]

very intense convection

[dhoeze]

Wow... hope it weekens before it affects any land.
Lots of rains in it..

[cycloneye]

They are not enthusiastic with it developing.

WTPN21 PGTW 040000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022351ZAPR2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 133.2E TO 15.8N 140.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
133.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N
130.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
031944Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL
NORTH, ALONG 16N, AND EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. RECENT ASCAT SUPPORTS THE 20 KNOT ASSESSMENT. MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND A FRONTAL ZONE ALONG
18N. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND TO
DISSIPATE DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A NARROW WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE UNLIKELY. A FEW
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRANSIT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AS
A WEAK EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050000Z.//

[supercane]

03Z SSD Dvorak:
TXPN21 KNES 040307
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)
B. 04/0232Z
C. 11.9N
D. 134.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON MET. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 60 NM (111 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
03/2249Z 11.0N 134.2E AMSU
03/2322Z 11.0N 134.2E SSMIS

...SALEMI

0Z JMA:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 11.6N 133.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

ASCAT only caught western edge of system.