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SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/20S)
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:52 pm CST [9:22 pm WST] Friday 1 April 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for Western Australian coastal and island areas from
Kuri Bay to WA/NT Border, including Kalumburu and Wyndham.
A Cyclone WATCH continues from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque, not including Derby.
At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 350 kilometres
north northeast of Wyndham and 335 kilometres northeast of Kalumburu and moving
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to continue on
a southwesterly track and develop into a tropical cyclone as it nears the north
Kimberley coast late on Saturday.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Wyndham and Kuri Bay late on Saturday and may extend inland to Kununurra if the
cyclone takes a more southerly track. Gales may extend further west to Cape
Leveque during Sunday as the cyclone moves further southwest along the northwest
Kimberley coast.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Wyndham and Kuri Bay late Saturday and
early Sunday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region during
Saturday and Sunday.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including Mitchell Plateau, should start taking precautions.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 129.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Saturday 02 April [12:30 am WST
Saturday 02 April].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:52 pm CST [9:22 pm WST] Friday 1 April 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for Western Australian coastal and island areas from
Kuri Bay to WA/NT Border, including Kalumburu and Wyndham.
A Cyclone WATCH continues from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque, not including Derby.
At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 350 kilometres
north northeast of Wyndham and 335 kilometres northeast of Kalumburu and moving
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to continue on
a southwesterly track and develop into a tropical cyclone as it nears the north
Kimberley coast late on Saturday.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Wyndham and Kuri Bay late on Saturday and may extend inland to Kununurra if the
cyclone takes a more southerly track. Gales may extend further west to Cape
Leveque during Sunday as the cyclone moves further southwest along the northwest
Kimberley coast.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Wyndham and Kuri Bay late Saturday and
early Sunday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region during
Saturday and Sunday.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including Mitchell Plateau, should start taking precautions.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 129.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Saturday 02 April [12:30 am WST
Saturday 02 April].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1342 UTC 01/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 129.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [219 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 13.2S 128.0E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 02/1200: 13.6S 126.7E: 105 [195]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 03/0000: 14.0S 125.2E: 140 [255]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 03/1200: 14.6S 124.2E: 170 [315]: 045 [085]: 990
+60: 04/0000: 15.2S 122.8E: 220 [405]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 04/1200: 15.8S 121.7E: 265 [490]: 050 [095]: 987
REMARKS:
Position based primarily on radar, with a circulation centre located west of
Darwin, moving in a SW direction.
Convection is flaring to the southwest [downshear] of the LLCC. Dvorak analysis
yields a DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern. FT=MET=1.5, based on a D- trend.
System remains in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS estimate at 06Z of
NE 20-30 kt. System relative shear should decrease over the next 24 to 48 hours
as the low accelerates slightly to the SW [in the direction of the shear] and
also moves closer to beneath the upper level ridge axis.
Appart from the vertical wind shear, the environment remains suitable for TC
development with deep moisture, significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is possible
late on Saturday near the north Kimberley coast.
Mid-level steering is dominated by a ridge oriented ENE/WSW producing a steady
forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to the northwest Kimberley
coast during Saturday and Sunday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1342 UTC 01/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 129.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [219 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 13.2S 128.0E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 02/1200: 13.6S 126.7E: 105 [195]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 03/0000: 14.0S 125.2E: 140 [255]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 03/1200: 14.6S 124.2E: 170 [315]: 045 [085]: 990
+60: 04/0000: 15.2S 122.8E: 220 [405]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 04/1200: 15.8S 121.7E: 265 [490]: 050 [095]: 987
REMARKS:
Position based primarily on radar, with a circulation centre located west of
Darwin, moving in a SW direction.
Convection is flaring to the southwest [downshear] of the LLCC. Dvorak analysis
yields a DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern. FT=MET=1.5, based on a D- trend.
System remains in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS estimate at 06Z of
NE 20-30 kt. System relative shear should decrease over the next 24 to 48 hours
as the low accelerates slightly to the SW [in the direction of the shear] and
also moves closer to beneath the upper level ridge axis.
Appart from the vertical wind shear, the environment remains suitable for TC
development with deep moisture, significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is possible
late on Saturday near the north Kimberley coast.
Mid-level steering is dominated by a ridge oriented ENE/WSW producing a steady
forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to the northwest Kimberley
coast during Saturday and Sunday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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cycloneye
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/91S)
WTXS21 PGTW 011630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 129.2E TO 14.8S 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 011600Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 128.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
GOOD, ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A
011020Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 011232Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 129.2E TO 14.8S 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 011600Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 128.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
GOOD, ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A
011020Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 011232Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2230 UTC 01/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 128.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [195 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/25HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0600: 13.9S 127.2E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 02/1800: 14.2S 125.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 03/0600: 14.8S 124.4E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 992
+48: 03/1800: 15.2S 123.2E: 185 [345]: 050 [095]: 986
+60: 04/0600: 15.6S 121.9E: 230 [430]: 055 [100]: 982
+72: 04/1800: 16.2S 120.9E: 280 [520]: 055 [100]: 982
REMARKS:
Position rather uncertain, with mixture of surface and mid-level signatures
evident on radar. Location based on combination of surface observations and
radar features.
Vigorous deep convection in the area, but not strong signs of increasing
organization. Was unable to obtain DT at 1730Z. Dvorak FT based on PT of 2.0
which is a reduction of MET 2.5.
System remains in an environment of moderate northeasterly shear. System
relative shear should decrease over the next 24 to 48 hours as the low
accelerates slightly to the SW [in the direction of the shear] and also moves
closer to beneath the upper level ridge axis.
Apart from the vertical wind shear, the environment remains suitable for TC
development with deep moisture, significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is possible
late on Saturday or early Sunday near the north Kimberley coast.
Mid-level steering is dominated by a ridge oriented ENE/WSW producing a steady
forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to the northwest Kimberley
coast during Saturday and Sunday. Forecast track based on consensus of
available NWP models.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2230 UTC 01/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 128.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [195 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/25HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0600: 13.9S 127.2E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 02/1800: 14.2S 125.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 03/0600: 14.8S 124.4E: 150 [280]: 040 [075]: 992
+48: 03/1800: 15.2S 123.2E: 185 [345]: 050 [095]: 986
+60: 04/0600: 15.6S 121.9E: 230 [430]: 055 [100]: 982
+72: 04/1800: 16.2S 120.9E: 280 [520]: 055 [100]: 982
REMARKS:
Position rather uncertain, with mixture of surface and mid-level signatures
evident on radar. Location based on combination of surface observations and
radar features.
Vigorous deep convection in the area, but not strong signs of increasing
organization. Was unable to obtain DT at 1730Z. Dvorak FT based on PT of 2.0
which is a reduction of MET 2.5.
System remains in an environment of moderate northeasterly shear. System
relative shear should decrease over the next 24 to 48 hours as the low
accelerates slightly to the SW [in the direction of the shear] and also moves
closer to beneath the upper level ridge axis.
Apart from the vertical wind shear, the environment remains suitable for TC
development with deep moisture, significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is possible
late on Saturday or early Sunday near the north Kimberley coast.
Mid-level steering is dominated by a ridge oriented ENE/WSW producing a steady
forecast track towards the southwest, passing close to the northwest Kimberley
coast during Saturday and Sunday. Forecast track based on consensus of
available NWP models.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/91S)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Saturday 2 April 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for Western Australian coastal and island areas
from Cape Leveque to Wyndham, including Kalumburu.
The Cyclone WATCH between Wyndham and the NT/WA Border has been cancelled.
At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 135 kilometres
northeast of Kalumburu and 230 kilometres north northwest of Wyndham and moving
southwest at 15 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to develop
into a tropical cyclone near the north Kimberley coast later today.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Wyndham and Kuri Bay later today. Gales may extend further west to Cape Leveque
during Sunday if the cyclone remains close to the coast.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Wyndham and Kuri Bay late Saturday and
early Sunday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region during
Saturday and Sunday.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including Mitchell Plateau, should start taking precautions.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 127.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Saturday 02 April [12:30 pm WST
Saturday 02 April].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Saturday 2 April 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for Western Australian coastal and island areas
from Cape Leveque to Wyndham, including Kalumburu.
The Cyclone WATCH between Wyndham and the NT/WA Border has been cancelled.
At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 135 kilometres
northeast of Kalumburu and 230 kilometres north northwest of Wyndham and moving
southwest at 15 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to develop
into a tropical cyclone near the north Kimberley coast later today.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Wyndham and Kuri Bay later today. Gales may extend further west to Cape Leveque
during Sunday if the cyclone remains close to the coast.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Wyndham and Kuri Bay late Saturday and
early Sunday.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region during
Saturday and Sunday.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including Mitchell Plateau, should start taking precautions.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.5 degrees South 127.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Saturday 02 April [12:30 pm WST
Saturday 02 April].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/91S)
WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011621ZAPR2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.2S 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.9S 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.6S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.3S 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.8S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.4S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.8S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 127.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS GOOD, ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER AUSTRALIA,
WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
A 012131Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. AN EARLIER ASCAT
IMAGE AT 011232Z INDICATED 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND BASED ON RECENT IMAGERY THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS
IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE AHEAD OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD DESPITE A SIMILAR DEPICTION OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72
BUT IS POLEWARD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO THE PROBLEM WITH THE
NOGAPS TRACKER. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE
THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A 25-30 KNOT
RATE PER DAY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TAU 120. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 011621Z APR 11 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 011630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND
030300Z.//
NNNN
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/20S)
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0251 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 127.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1200: 13.8S 126.0E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 03/0000: 14.3S 124.6E: 090 [165]: 040 [070]: 992
+36: 03/1200: 14.7S 123.4E: 095 [175]: 045 [085]: 988
+48: 04/0000: 15.2S 122.1E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 984
+60: 04/1200: 15.7S 121.0E: 110 [205]: 055 [100]: 982
+72: 05/0000: 16.4S 119.9E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 979
REMARKS:
Centre position has become well defined on radar by converging spiral rainbands
west of earlier fixes. Convective structure has improved significantly with the
development of a CDO over the LLCC. Outflow appears to be good in northern and
western sectors.
Dvorak analysis at 2030UTC was based on 1.5deg CDO yielding a DT=3.0. Reanalysis
of recent timesteps produces FT=2.5 from 1730UTC. At 2330UTC, DT was not
assigned due to large area of cold cloud over the LLCC, so FT=MET=2.5.
The low has turned towards the WSW, with a forecast track along the north
Kimberley coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. The
system is now a favourable environment for development with reducing vertical
wind shear, deep moisture and significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is likely later today near the north Kimberley coast.
The longer-term track forecast takes the developing cyclone towards the WSW,
slightly further away from the WA coast north of Broome on Monday. The forecast
track is based on a consensus of available NWP models.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0251 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 127.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1200: 13.8S 126.0E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 03/0000: 14.3S 124.6E: 090 [165]: 040 [070]: 992
+36: 03/1200: 14.7S 123.4E: 095 [175]: 045 [085]: 988
+48: 04/0000: 15.2S 122.1E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 984
+60: 04/1200: 15.7S 121.0E: 110 [205]: 055 [100]: 982
+72: 05/0000: 16.4S 119.9E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 979
REMARKS:
Centre position has become well defined on radar by converging spiral rainbands
west of earlier fixes. Convective structure has improved significantly with the
development of a CDO over the LLCC. Outflow appears to be good in northern and
western sectors.
Dvorak analysis at 2030UTC was based on 1.5deg CDO yielding a DT=3.0. Reanalysis
of recent timesteps produces FT=2.5 from 1730UTC. At 2330UTC, DT was not
assigned due to large area of cold cloud over the LLCC, so FT=MET=2.5.
The low has turned towards the WSW, with a forecast track along the north
Kimberley coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. The
system is now a favourable environment for development with reducing vertical
wind shear, deep moisture and significant low-level broad-scale vorticity. TC
formation is likely later today near the north Kimberley coast.
The longer-term track forecast takes the developing cyclone towards the WSW,
slightly further away from the WA coast north of Broome on Monday. The forecast
track is based on a consensus of available NWP models.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
JTWC has this maxing out near 90kts with gust above 100, looks about right giving the favorable conditions off the NW coast..
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.8S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.5S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.5S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.5S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.5S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 126.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS REDUCED AS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVED ONSHORE NEAR KALUMBURU.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN INTACT AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE
LLCC AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE RADAR ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
KNES, PGTW, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO STRADDLE THE KIMBERLY COAST BEFORE
IT RE-ENTERS THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN BY TAU 24.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 90 KTS AT TAU 96 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
RECURVE POLEWARD TOWARDS LEARMONTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT FAVORS A WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER TAU 48,
INDICATING MINIMAL IMPACT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.8S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.5S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.5S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.5S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.5S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 126.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS REDUCED AS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVED ONSHORE NEAR KALUMBURU.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN INTACT AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE
LLCC AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE RADAR ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
KNES, PGTW, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO STRADDLE THE KIMBERLY COAST BEFORE
IT RE-ENTERS THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN BY TAU 24.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 90 KTS AT TAU 96 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
RECURVE POLEWARD TOWARDS LEARMONTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT FAVORS A WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER TAU 48,
INDICATING MINIMAL IMPACT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
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-
Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1913 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 125.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0600: 14.8S 124.7E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 989
+24: 03/1800: 15.4S 123.1E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 04/0600: 15.7S 121.4E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 979
+48: 04/1800: 16.1S 119.8E: 145 [270]: 070 [130]: 971
+60: 05/0600: 16.5S 118.2E: 190 [355]: 075 [140]: 967
+72: 05/1800: 17.0S 117.1E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 962
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery and surface observations.
Convective structure has weakened over the past 6 hours due to interaction with
land.
Dvorak analysis at 18 UTC: Scene type was difficult to determine, but using a
shear pattern with LLCC <0.5 degree from strong temperature gradient, DT = 2.5.
Difficult to assign MET as system was over water 24 hours ago. FT is therefore
set to 2.5 with maximum winds estimated at 30 knots, consistent with earlier
surface observations.
The low has recently been tracking to the WSW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. CIMMS analysis at 18UTC indicates the system is currently under 3.8
m/s of northerly shear. Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term
due to the proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to
move over open water with SSTs about 30C and intensify at the standard rate.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks have a very low spread, with high
confidence in the track forecast for the next 72 hours. The broadscale
environment is expected to remain favourable for continued development as the
system moves away from the coast, with the potential for it to reach severe
tropical cyclone strength during Monday. Thereafter, system strength will depend
on whether a dry continental air mass can penetrate into the core.
Towards the end of next week it is possible the system will adopt a southerly
track as an upper trough approaches. Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is
possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1913 UTC 02/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 125.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0600: 14.8S 124.7E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 989
+24: 03/1800: 15.4S 123.1E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 04/0600: 15.7S 121.4E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 979
+48: 04/1800: 16.1S 119.8E: 145 [270]: 070 [130]: 971
+60: 05/0600: 16.5S 118.2E: 190 [355]: 075 [140]: 967
+72: 05/1800: 17.0S 117.1E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 962
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery and surface observations.
Convective structure has weakened over the past 6 hours due to interaction with
land.
Dvorak analysis at 18 UTC: Scene type was difficult to determine, but using a
shear pattern with LLCC <0.5 degree from strong temperature gradient, DT = 2.5.
Difficult to assign MET as system was over water 24 hours ago. FT is therefore
set to 2.5 with maximum winds estimated at 30 knots, consistent with earlier
surface observations.
The low has recently been tracking to the WSW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. CIMMS analysis at 18UTC indicates the system is currently under 3.8
m/s of northerly shear. Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term
due to the proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to
move over open water with SSTs about 30C and intensify at the standard rate.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks have a very low spread, with high
confidence in the track forecast for the next 72 hours. The broadscale
environment is expected to remain favourable for continued development as the
system moves away from the coast, with the potential for it to reach severe
tropical cyclone strength during Monday. Thereafter, system strength will depend
on whether a dry continental air mass can penetrate into the core.
Towards the end of next week it is possible the system will adopt a southerly
track as an upper trough approaches. Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is
possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0647 UTC 03/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 124.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [233 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: D1.5/1.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1800: 15.5S 123.6E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 04/0600: 15.9S 122.0E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 04/1800: 16.2S 120.4E: 120 [225]: 055 [100]: 986
+48: 05/0600: 16.7S 118.7E: 155 [285]: 060 [110]: 984
+60: 05/1800: 17.2S 117.4E: 200 [375]: 070 [130]: 975
+72: 06/0600: 18.1S 116.5E: 230 [425]: 070 [130]: 975
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery. Convective structure has
weakened significantly over the last 24 hours due to interaction with land
however a good circulation is still evident on VIS imagery. The convection which
is present is located to the south of the LLCC consistent with the CIMSS
analysis of northerly shear of around 4.5m/s [at 00Z] .
Applicability of Dvorak analysis is questionable while the system is over land
and it has become difficult to determine pattern type with little convection
present. A weakening trend was assigned so MET was used to assign FT=CI=1.5.
Final intensity estimate is based on a subjective assessment of the trend in
system organisation and previous surface observations.
The low has recently been tracking to the SW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term due to the
proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to move over
open water with SSTs about 30C. Shear is expected to be low to moderate,
increasing on Wednesday under the influence of an approaching trough.
Intensification may occur at about the standard rate and hurricane strength is
anticipated by either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. System strength will also
depend on whether a dry air mass indicated by numerical models can penetrate
into the core.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a relatively low spread for the
next 48 hours. After that the spread of guidance increases, related to the
intensity of the system at that time. If the system weakens it is likely the
system will be steered by the lower levels and move away to the north. If it
remains stronger it may adopt a southerly track as an upper trough approaches.
Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0647 UTC 03/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 124.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [233 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: D1.5/1.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1800: 15.5S 123.6E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 04/0600: 15.9S 122.0E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 04/1800: 16.2S 120.4E: 120 [225]: 055 [100]: 986
+48: 05/0600: 16.7S 118.7E: 155 [285]: 060 [110]: 984
+60: 05/1800: 17.2S 117.4E: 200 [375]: 070 [130]: 975
+72: 06/0600: 18.1S 116.5E: 230 [425]: 070 [130]: 975
REMARKS:
The centre was located using satellite imagery. Convective structure has
weakened significantly over the last 24 hours due to interaction with land
however a good circulation is still evident on VIS imagery. The convection which
is present is located to the south of the LLCC consistent with the CIMSS
analysis of northerly shear of around 4.5m/s [at 00Z] .
Applicability of Dvorak analysis is questionable while the system is over land
and it has become difficult to determine pattern type with little convection
present. A weakening trend was assigned so MET was used to assign FT=CI=1.5.
Final intensity estimate is based on a subjective assessment of the trend in
system organisation and previous surface observations.
The low has recently been tracking to the SW, steered by a mid-level ridge to
the south. Intensity is likely to be constrained in the short term due to the
proximity to land but in the longer term the system is expected to move over
open water with SSTs about 30C. Shear is expected to be low to moderate,
increasing on Wednesday under the influence of an approaching trough.
Intensification may occur at about the standard rate and hurricane strength is
anticipated by either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. System strength will also
depend on whether a dry air mass indicated by numerical models can penetrate
into the core.
The current consensus of NWP forecast tracks has a relatively low spread for the
next 48 hours. After that the spread of guidance increases, related to the
intensity of the system at that time. If the system weakens it is likely the
system will be steered by the lower levels and move away to the north. If it
remains stronger it may adopt a southerly track as an upper trough approaches.
Under this scenario, a coastal crossing is possible in the Pilbara region.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/20S)
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0654 UTC 04/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 123.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [273 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1800: 15.9S 121.7E: 045 [085]: 025 [045]: 1002
+24: 05/0600: 16.1S 119.8E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 05/1800: 16.4S 118.1E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 06/0600: 16.9S 116.3E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 06/1800: 17.1S 115.0E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 07/0600: 16.8S 113.7E: 190 [350]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Radar and VIS imagery shows the circulation has weakened significantly in the
last 24 hours. The low level cloud lines have poor definition and there is a
deck of stratocumulus on the western side of the circulation. There is very
little deep convection associated with the low level circulation centre [LLCC]
and it is not possible to rate the system at T1.0. Weakening has likely been due
to a combination of interaction with land and dry air. The Broome skew-T profile
and the CIMSS TPW loop support model diagnoses of dry air wrapping around the
western side of the system. There are no significant pressure falls in the
vicinity of the system.
Even under favourable conditions the low would be expected to take some time to
reach TC intensity. It is now considered unlikely that the system could attain
tropical cyclone intensity before shear increases late Wednesday due to an upper
trough. More likely is the development of periods of gales on the southern side
of the system as it tracks parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Current mid level steering patterns are weak and model guidance has generally
been right of track, but the weaker the system is the more likely it is to track
away from the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0654 UTC 04/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 25U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 123.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [273 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 04/1800: 15.9S 121.7E: 045 [085]: 025 [045]: 1002
+24: 05/0600: 16.1S 119.8E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 05/1800: 16.4S 118.1E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 06/0600: 16.9S 116.3E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 06/1800: 17.1S 115.0E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 07/0600: 16.8S 113.7E: 190 [350]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Radar and VIS imagery shows the circulation has weakened significantly in the
last 24 hours. The low level cloud lines have poor definition and there is a
deck of stratocumulus on the western side of the circulation. There is very
little deep convection associated with the low level circulation centre [LLCC]
and it is not possible to rate the system at T1.0. Weakening has likely been due
to a combination of interaction with land and dry air. The Broome skew-T profile
and the CIMSS TPW loop support model diagnoses of dry air wrapping around the
western side of the system. There are no significant pressure falls in the
vicinity of the system.
Even under favourable conditions the low would be expected to take some time to
reach TC intensity. It is now considered unlikely that the system could attain
tropical cyclone intensity before shear increases late Wednesday due to an upper
trough. More likely is the development of periods of gales on the southern side
of the system as it tracks parallel to the Pilbara coast.
Current mid level steering patterns are weak and model guidance has generally
been right of track, but the weaker the system is the more likely it is to track
away from the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
0 likes
-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (25U/20S)
I'm not to surprised JTWC put the final wrng out on this, A little though that it dissipated this rapidly. Just shows how diffiicult these storms can be to fcst some times. Any how though, final warning out!
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