SIO/AUS: ERROL: Tropical Cyclone

[Extratropical94]

Nothing up in the active storms thread.

JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE TIMOR SEA NEAR
12.0S 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EARLY FORMATIVE BANDING AND
DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
120943Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
IMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER WARM WATERS (OVER 28C). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

BOM:
A second weak low pressure system lies south of Timor near 10S 125E. It is
expected to remain weak and drift further westwards over the next few days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Low
Saturday :Low

NRL:
15 kt, 1010 mbar, 13.0N 125.8E

[wxman57]

Looks much more impressive today than yesterday. Stationary ridge to its south should mean a track westward and out to sea.

[Extratropical94]

SSTs at or above 29C

[Extratropical94]

The monsoon trough lies through the northern Indian Ocean with an embedded low pressure system [29U] located near 13S 126E at midday WST. The low is expected to drift to the west northwest over the next few days and may develop further.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:

Friday :Low
Saturday :Moderate
Sunday :Moderate

Why does the BOM have so many ''U''s this season?
Already at number 29

[Extratropical94]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1401 UTC 14/04/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 126.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [154 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/0000: 12.5S 126.2E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 1001
+24: 15/1200: 12.2S 125.7E: 105 [195]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 16/0000: 12.0S 124.4E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1003
+48: 16/1200: 11.3S 123.6E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 1003
+60: 17/0000: 10.8S 122.4E: 220 [405]: 030 [055]: 1003
+72: 17/1200: 10.5S 121.5E: 265 [490]: 025 [045]: 1005
REMARKS:
Position based on 0940 and 1147UTC SSMIS fixes showing spiral banding with the
LLCC under the edge of deep convection. Convective structure has varied during
the day with a sustained area of cold tops to the SW of the LLCC.

Dvorak analysis yields 0.35 curved band wrap at 1130UTC, if the discontinuous
band west of the centre is excluded. MET=1.5, FT based on DT and PAT=2.0. The
system has shown a standard development rate from T1.0 12Z 13/4 to 2.0 12Z 14/4,
associated with improved low-level structure evident in microwave images and
closer involvement of LLCC with cold cloud. Surface observations at Troughton
Island 140 km south of the centre have increased to 22kt with gusts to 27kt at
1300UTC.

All model guidance forecasts slow movement for 24h then steady WNW track under
the influence of a strengthening ridge to the south. Dry air evident in WV
animation is encroaching on the western side of the system but outflow in
southern sectors remains good ahead of a passing upper trough. Overall
environment is favourable for further development until dry air becomes more
involved with the central convection during Friday. Poor convective structure
suggests slow intensification overnight then weakening.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Extratropical94]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
126.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CURVED INFLOW INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND RADAR FROM
WYNDHAM DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE COAST. A 132310Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A LACK OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY, A 140029Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS STRONGER CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND ARE 1006 MB WITH A 2 MB PRESSURE
DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.



veeery cold cloud tops in this system...

[Extratropical94]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
125.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA DEPICT CURVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATE 1007 MB MSLP WITH MAX WINDS AT
18 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS. MSLP HAS SHOWN A 3 MB PRESSURE DROP
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS
IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
DRY AIR, EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, IS
ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WHILE ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A PASSING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[theavocado]

I think we'll see a warning on this soon. It appears that the system is starting to vent into the midlatitude trough to the south and this is greatly enhancing convection. I've long suspected that this system is under-represented by the dvoraks due to its diminutive size, but you can't deny the multiple convective bands wrapping in on the SSMI/S pass.

[RobWESTPACWX]

NOW A TCFA off of DARWIN


WTXS21 PGTW 142130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 126.9E TO 12.5S 123.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
126.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM W OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR
LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA DEPICT CURVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
14/1733Z TRMM 37H MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE LLCC, INDICATE
1006.9 MB MSLP WITH MAX WINDS AT 23 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS
(15/0500 WST). MSLP HAS SHOWN A 2 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 28-32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC AND AN INCREASE IN OBSERVED
WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152130Z.//
NNNN

[Reesie]

Darwin/Perth just named it Errol in a flash warning.

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Friday 15 April 2011

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Kuri
Bay to Kalumburu in Western Australia.

At 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 1 was estimated to
be 120 kilometres north of Troughton Island and 185 kilometres north northwest
of Kalumburu, moving west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour parallel to the
coast. The cyclone may intensify further as it moves away from the Kimberley
coast early on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between
Kalumburu and Kuri Bay during today if the cyclone takes a more southwest track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay
should start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 9:30 am CST [8:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 126.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Friday 15 April [12:30 pm WST
Friday 15 April].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Grifforzer]

AXAU01 ADRM 150155
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0154 UTC 15/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 126.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1200: 12.7S 125.6E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 996
+24: 16/0000: 12.4S 124.8E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 991
+36: 16/1200: 11.5S 123.8E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 998
+48: 17/0000: 10.9S 122.6E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1003
+60: 17/1200: 10.4S 121.6E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 1003
+72: 18/0000: 9.9S 120.8E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Position based on 2051UTC SSMIS fix showing tightly curved spiral banding. Radar
animation indicates rotation around the centre in the mid-levels. Convective
structure has improved significantly overnight with the development of curved
bands and a comma-shaped central feature. Dvorak analysis based on 0.65 curved
band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=2.5 and FT=PAT=3.0. Surface observations at
Troughton Island 120 km south of the centre have reached 28kt gusting 36kt at
00UTC. Pressure falls in the north Kimberley indicate system intensification and
slow southwest movement overnight.
Model guidance at 1200UTC continues to forecast slow westward movement for first
6-12 hours as a mid-level trough passes to the south, then a steady WNW track
under the influence of a strengthening ridge to the southwest. There is high
confidence in the track forecast due to consistency between models. However,
there is the possibility that a southwest movement may allow gales to affect the
coast briefly later today.
Overall environment is favourable for further intensification with low vertical
wind shear and good outflow in western and southern sectors. A strengthening low
level ridge over WA is expected to increase vertical wind shear and cause dry
air to affect the cyclone within 24-36hrs. Intensification at the standard rate
is expected, then weakening as the cyclone moves closer to the eastern
Indonesian islands.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTY-ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTY-ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 126.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 126.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.8S 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.3S 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.9S 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.6S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.3S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.4S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.7S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 126.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTY-ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. A 14/2208Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
SPIRAL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO
45 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE
LLCC, INDICATE 1008.8 MB MSLP WITH MAX WINDS AT 28 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
36 KNOTS (15/00Z). MSLP AT TROUGHTON HAS SHOWN A 1.3 MB PRESSURE
DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS LOCATED BENEATH THE
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SST) BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A DRY, HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 120E. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
IS WITHIN THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 142121Z APR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 142130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just put out a video here, let me know what you guys think!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fPRUJFfBbI[/youtube]

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST [12:30 pm WST] Friday 15 April 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to
Kalumburu, in Western Australia.

At 12:30 pm CST [11:00 am WST] Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 1 was estimated
to be 120 kilometres north of Troughton Island and 185 kilometres north
northwest of Kalumburu, moving west at 2 kilometres per hour parallel to the
coast. The cyclone may intensify further as it moves away from the Kimberley
coast early on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between
Kalumburu and Kuri Bay during today if the cyclone takes a more southwest track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay
should start taking precautions.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 12:30 pm CST [11:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 126.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Friday 15 April [3:30 pm WST
Friday 15 April].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre



TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTY-ONE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. A 14/2208Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
SPIRAL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO
45 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF THE
LLCC, INDICATE 1008.8 MB MSLP WITH MAX WINDS AT 28 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
36 KNOTS (15/00Z). MSLP AT TROUGHTON HAS SHOWN A 1.3 MB PRESSURE
DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS LOCATED BENEATH THE
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SST) BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A DRY, HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 120E. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
IS WITHIN THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 142121Z APR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 142130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 8:47 pm WST on Friday 15 April 2011

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to
Kalumburu.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 1 was estimated to be
130 kilometres north of Troughton Island and
200 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 2 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

The cyclone may intensify further during Saturday as it moves away from the
Kimberley coast.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between
Kalumburu and Kuri Bay later tonight or Saturday morning if the cyclone takes a
more southwest track.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley. Please
refer to the latest Flood Watch for the north Kimberley, IDW39610.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities, should start taking precautions.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.6 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Saturday 16 April.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.8S 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.6S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.3S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.2S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.4S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.8S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.2S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 125.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (ERROL) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL (<200NM)
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151136Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALTHOUGH IR DOES NOT INDICATE THIS. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AS
THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND REORIENTS, TC
21S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND WBAR AS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIERS. ALSO, GFS
BEGINS ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 48.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN