Looks like because of its size, the intensity of this system is being underestimated .. looks pretty well organized
SIO/AUS: ERROL: Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 5:33 am WST on Saturday 16 April 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu
to Kuri Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 1 was estimated to be
220 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and
295 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour away from the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Errol is moving slowly to the northwest, away from the
Kimberley coast.
There is a very slight possibility of GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per
hour on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay this morning IF the cyclone
takes a more southwest track.
During Sunday TC Errol is expected to weaken as it approaches the islands of
Indonesia.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities, should start taking precautions.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.0 degrees South 125.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 16 April.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 5:33 am WST on Saturday 16 April 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu
to Kuri Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 1 was estimated to be
220 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and
295 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour away from the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Errol is moving slowly to the northwest, away from the
Kimberley coast.
There is a very slight possibility of GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per
hour on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay this morning IF the cyclone
takes a more southwest track.
During Sunday TC Errol is expected to weaken as it approaches the islands of
Indonesia.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities, should start taking precautions.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.0 degrees South 125.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 16 April.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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AXAU01 APRF 151853
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 15/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 125.4E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [306 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 11.8S 124.8E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 994
+24: 16/1800: 11.3S 123.6E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 998
+36: 17/0600: 10.9S 122.2E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1003
+48: 17/1800: 10.8S 120.9E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1003
+60: 18/0600: 11.1S 119.8E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1005
+72: 18/1800: 11.5S 118.3E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
The current position based on the enhanced IR imagery. The convective banding
has strengthened slightly over the last couple of hours. Dvorak analysis is
based on a 0.65 curved band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=3.0 on a 24hr D- trend, and
no PAT adjustment is required, so FT=DT=MET=3.0 with CI at 3.0. ADT currently
yields CI=3.2. This is a small system and EIR Dvorak analysis may not be
strictly representative. The system is maintained at 40 knots, with a forecast
of slight intensification based on environment and entering a diurnally
favourable period.
The system is expected to move slowly west-northwest as a mid-level ridge
develops to the south of the system. There is a slight possibility that gales
will affect the northern Kimberley coast if it were to drift to the southwest.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with 12Z CIMMS analysis suggesting 3.3
m/s of northerly shear. A good outflow channel is evident on satellite imagery
to the west and south of the system. However, animations of total precipitable
water suggest dry air is beginning to wrap around the system, though at present
it is maintaining intensity. It is expected an amplifying upper level trough
over eastern Australia will increase in shear in the next 24-48 hours and assist
ingestion of dry air into the core, ultimately weakening the cyclone moves
closer to the eastern Indonesian islands. Given the small size of the system,
this may lead to rapid weakening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 15/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 125.4E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [306 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 11.8S 124.8E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 994
+24: 16/1800: 11.3S 123.6E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 998
+36: 17/0600: 10.9S 122.2E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1003
+48: 17/1800: 10.8S 120.9E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1003
+60: 18/0600: 11.1S 119.8E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1005
+72: 18/1800: 11.5S 118.3E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
The current position based on the enhanced IR imagery. The convective banding
has strengthened slightly over the last couple of hours. Dvorak analysis is
based on a 0.65 curved band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=3.0 on a 24hr D- trend, and
no PAT adjustment is required, so FT=DT=MET=3.0 with CI at 3.0. ADT currently
yields CI=3.2. This is a small system and EIR Dvorak analysis may not be
strictly representative. The system is maintained at 40 knots, with a forecast
of slight intensification based on environment and entering a diurnally
favourable period.
The system is expected to move slowly west-northwest as a mid-level ridge
develops to the south of the system. There is a slight possibility that gales
will affect the northern Kimberley coast if it were to drift to the southwest.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with 12Z CIMMS analysis suggesting 3.3
m/s of northerly shear. A good outflow channel is evident on satellite imagery
to the west and south of the system. However, animations of total precipitable
water suggest dry air is beginning to wrap around the system, though at present
it is maintaining intensity. It is expected an amplifying upper level trough
over eastern Australia will increase in shear in the next 24-48 hours and assist
ingestion of dry air into the core, ultimately weakening the cyclone moves
closer to the eastern Indonesian islands. Given the small size of the system,
this may lead to rapid weakening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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wxman57
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Re: SIO/AUS: ERROL: Tropical Cyclone
That's no TS, it's a rapidly-intensifying hurricane (Severe Tropical Cyclone).
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HURAKAN
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Re: SIO/AUS: ERROL: Tropical Cyclone
wxman57 wrote:That's no TS, it's a rapidly-intensifying hurricane (Severe Tropical Cyclone).
Agree, this system is being badly underestimated
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:43 am WST on Saturday 16 April 2011
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Kuri
Bay has been CANCELLED.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 2 was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and
335 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour away from the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the
north Kimberley coast. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are no
longer expected in coastal areas between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities are advised that the cyclone threat
has passed.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 125.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 989 hectoPascals
No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin (IDW24000)
which will be issued by 3:00pm WST Saturday and the Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Track Map (IDW60281) for more details.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:43 am WST on Saturday 16 April 2011
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Kuri
Bay has been CANCELLED.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 2 was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and
335 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour away from the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the
north Kimberley coast. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are no
longer expected in coastal areas between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities are advised that the cyclone threat
has passed.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 125.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 989 hectoPascals
No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin (IDW24000)
which will be issued by 3:00pm WST Saturday and the Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Track Map (IDW60281) for more details.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: SIO/AUS: ERROL: Tropical Cyclone
Just uploaded this video for 21S Errol.. Also gave storm2k a shout out near the end!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY7082ohBGo[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY7082ohBGo[/youtube]
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 125.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [324 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 11.0S 124.4E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 989
+24: 17/0000: 10.7S 123.4E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 17/1200: 10.5S 122.1E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 18/0000: 10.7S 120.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 18/1200: 11.0S 119.3E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 19/0000: 11.2S 117.8E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The current position is based on microwave and visible imagery.
Tight convective banding on visible images gives a wrap -0.8 yielding a DT=3.5.
MET was 4.0 based on a D trend and PAT was 3.5. So FT and CI were set to 3.5
with max winds [10 minute] of 50 knots. This is in agreement with SATCON [57
knots at 18 UTC]. ADT gives initial raw T values between 3.2 and 3.5 over the
last 6 hours.
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Errol is now far
enough away from the north Kimberley coast that the threat of gales has passed.
Consensus of NWP indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest
track in the next 72 hours.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with the 00Z CIMSS analysis of 4.5 m/s.
A good poleward outflow channel is evident on satellite imagery. Intensity is
maintained at 50 knots for the next 18 hours. An amplifying upper level trough
over eastern Australia will increase shear in the next 24-48 hours, weakening
the cyclone as it moves closer to the eastern Indonesian islands. Given the
small size of the system, this may lead to rapid weakening. The system may also
weaken due to the ingestion of dry air although this is difficult to diagnose.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 125.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [324 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 11.0S 124.4E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 989
+24: 17/0000: 10.7S 123.4E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 17/1200: 10.5S 122.1E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 18/0000: 10.7S 120.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 18/1200: 11.0S 119.3E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 19/0000: 11.2S 117.8E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The current position is based on microwave and visible imagery.
Tight convective banding on visible images gives a wrap -0.8 yielding a DT=3.5.
MET was 4.0 based on a D trend and PAT was 3.5. So FT and CI were set to 3.5
with max winds [10 minute] of 50 knots. This is in agreement with SATCON [57
knots at 18 UTC]. ADT gives initial raw T values between 3.2 and 3.5 over the
last 6 hours.
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Errol is now far
enough away from the north Kimberley coast that the threat of gales has passed.
Consensus of NWP indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest
track in the next 72 hours.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with the 00Z CIMSS analysis of 4.5 m/s.
A good poleward outflow channel is evident on satellite imagery. Intensity is
maintained at 50 knots for the next 18 hours. An amplifying upper level trough
over eastern Australia will increase shear in the next 24-48 hours, weakening
the cyclone as it moves closer to the eastern Indonesian islands. Given the
small size of the system, this may lead to rapid weakening. The system may also
weaken due to the ingestion of dry air although this is difficult to diagnose.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ERROL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.6S 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.1S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.7S 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 10.5S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 10.7S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.3S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.3S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 124.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINED
ROBUST. A 152156Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE DEEPENED
CONVECTION AND TIGHT WRAPPING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY OF T3.0 FROM APRF AND KNES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
REORIENTS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT UP TO TAU
48 WHEN COLD CONTINENTAL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. TC ERROL WILL REDUCE TO A
35-KT SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND WBAR AS THE SOUTHERNMOST
OUTLIERS AND ECMF AS THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFDN AND WBAR'S
INLIKELY TRACK INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22480
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: SIO/AUS: ERROL: Tropical Cyclone
As fast as the sharp eye developed, it fell apart. I do think it was a severe TC (hurricane) yesterday, but it's not now.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 124.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [319 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 10.6S 123.9E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 986
+24: 17/0600: 10.3S 122.9E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 17/1800: 10.3S 121.9E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 18/0600: 10.6S 120.8E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 18/1800: 11.0S 119.4E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 19/0600: 11.4S 118.1E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
The current position is based on visible imagery.
The 2155 UTC tc_ssmis image showed deep convection wrapping completely around
the LLCC. An eye emerged on EIR imagery between 2330 UTC and 0130 UTC with DTs
between 4 and 4.5.
Tight convective banding on recent visible images gives a wrap -1.2 yielding a
DT of 4.0. MET was 3.5 based on a D- trend and PAT was 3.5. With clear DTs, FT
and CI were set to 4.0 with max winds [10 minute] of 55 knots.
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP
indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the next 72
hours.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with the 06Z CIMSS analysis of 2.6 m/s.
Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 12 hours. Errol may still be at
category 2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although
there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. This is mainly
due to the likelihood of dry air intrusion. The system is also likely to weaken
due to the interaction with land. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24
to 48 hours which will further weaken the system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 124.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [319 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 10.6S 123.9E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 986
+24: 17/0600: 10.3S 122.9E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 17/1800: 10.3S 121.9E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 18/0600: 10.6S 120.8E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 18/1800: 11.0S 119.4E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 19/0600: 11.4S 118.1E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
The current position is based on visible imagery.
The 2155 UTC tc_ssmis image showed deep convection wrapping completely around
the LLCC. An eye emerged on EIR imagery between 2330 UTC and 0130 UTC with DTs
between 4 and 4.5.
Tight convective banding on recent visible images gives a wrap -1.2 yielding a
DT of 4.0. MET was 3.5 based on a D- trend and PAT was 3.5. With clear DTs, FT
and CI were set to 4.0 with max winds [10 minute] of 55 knots.
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP
indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the next 72
hours.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with the 06Z CIMSS analysis of 2.6 m/s.
Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 12 hours. Errol may still be at
category 2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although
there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. This is mainly
due to the likelihood of dry air intrusion. The system is also likely to weaken
due to the interaction with land. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24
to 48 hours which will further weaken the system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Down to 45 kt from TCWC Jakarta.
IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta
BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 02:54 UTC 17/04/2011
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.
System: 1
Storm ID:
SIKLON TROPIS: ERROL
Data pada: 17/0000 UTC
Lintang: 10.9LS
Bujur: 124.1BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 30 mil (55 km)
Arah gerak: barat (280 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 3 knots (6 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Kupang
Pada +0: 50 mil (95 km) selatan tenggara
Pada +24: 80 mil (150 km) barat barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Rote
Pada +0: 55 mil (105 km) timur
Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 45 knots (85 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 65 knots (120 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 993 hPa
24 jam Intensitas: Gale
Radius angin 34-knot:
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran TL: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran Tg: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BD: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BL: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin Maksimum:15 nm 20 mil (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity:T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Tekanan pada isobar terluar:1009 hPa
Radius isobar tertutup terluar:90 mil (165 km)
Ketebalan Vertikal Siklon: Tinggi
DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam : Posisi : Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC) : derajat : mil (km): knots(km/jam): hPa: knots(km/jam):
+12: 17/1200: 10.7LS 123.3BT: 060 (110): 035 (065): 999: 050 (095)
+24: 18/0000: 10.7LS 122.4BT: 090 (165): 035 (065): 1001: 050 (095)
+36: 18/1200: 11.0LS 121.4BT: 120 (225): 030 (055): 1001: 045 (085)
+48: 19/0000: 11.6LS 120.4BT: 155 (285): 030 (055): 1002: 045 (085)
+60: 19/1200: 12.1LS 119.4BT: 200 (375): 030 (055): 1002: 045 (085)
+72: 20/0000: 12.8LS 118.4BT: 250 (465): 030 (055): 1003: 045 (085)
KETERANGAN TEKNIS
NFORMASI LEBIH LANJUT HUBUNGI 021 - 6546315 / 318
DAMPAK
Siklon tropis ERROL memberikan dampak berupa:
- Potensi hujan dengan intensitas sedang - lebat di wilayah NTB dan NTT
- Angin kencang di wilayah NTT dan Pulau Rote
- Gelombang Laut lebih dari 4 meter Perairan P. Rote - Kupang, Samudera Hindia selatan NTT
- Gelombang laut dengan tinggi 3 - 4 meter dapat terjadi di Laut Sawu bagian selatan, Laut Timor
- Gelombang laut dengan tinggi 2 - 3 meter dapat terjadi di Perairan selatan P. Sumba, Laut Sawu bagian utara, Laut Arafuru
IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta
BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 02:54 UTC 17/04/2011
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.
System: 1
Storm ID:
SIKLON TROPIS: ERROL
Data pada: 17/0000 UTC
Lintang: 10.9LS
Bujur: 124.1BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 30 mil (55 km)
Arah gerak: barat (280 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 3 knots (6 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Kupang
Pada +0: 50 mil (95 km) selatan tenggara
Pada +24: 80 mil (150 km) barat barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Rote
Pada +0: 55 mil (105 km) timur
Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 45 knots (85 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 65 knots (120 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 993 hPa
24 jam Intensitas: Gale
Radius angin 34-knot:
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran TL: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran Tg: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BD: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BL: 45 mil (85 km)
Radius angin Maksimum:15 nm 20 mil (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity:T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Tekanan pada isobar terluar:1009 hPa
Radius isobar tertutup terluar:90 mil (165 km)
Ketebalan Vertikal Siklon: Tinggi
DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam : Posisi : Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC) : derajat : mil (km): knots(km/jam): hPa: knots(km/jam):
+12: 17/1200: 10.7LS 123.3BT: 060 (110): 035 (065): 999: 050 (095)
+24: 18/0000: 10.7LS 122.4BT: 090 (165): 035 (065): 1001: 050 (095)
+36: 18/1200: 11.0LS 121.4BT: 120 (225): 030 (055): 1001: 045 (085)
+48: 19/0000: 11.6LS 120.4BT: 155 (285): 030 (055): 1002: 045 (085)
+60: 19/1200: 12.1LS 119.4BT: 200 (375): 030 (055): 1002: 045 (085)
+72: 20/0000: 12.8LS 118.4BT: 250 (465): 030 (055): 1003: 045 (085)
KETERANGAN TEKNIS
NFORMASI LEBIH LANJUT HUBUNGI 021 - 6546315 / 318
DAMPAK
Siklon tropis ERROL memberikan dampak berupa:
- Potensi hujan dengan intensitas sedang - lebat di wilayah NTB dan NTT
- Angin kencang di wilayah NTT dan Pulau Rote
- Gelombang Laut lebih dari 4 meter Perairan P. Rote - Kupang, Samudera Hindia selatan NTT
- Gelombang laut dengan tinggi 3 - 4 meter dapat terjadi di Laut Sawu bagian selatan, Laut Timor
- Gelombang laut dengan tinggi 2 - 3 meter dapat terjadi di Perairan selatan P. Sumba, Laut Sawu bagian utara, Laut Arafuru
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