ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

BEGIN
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invest_al912011.invest
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201104201829
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011041918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011041918, , BEST, 0, 214N, 576W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042000, , BEST, 0, 221N, 581W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042006, , BEST, 0, 226N, 589W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011042012, , BEST, 0, 228N, 598W, 35, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105,
AL, 91, 2011042018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 608W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[RL3AO]

Meh. Don't give it much of a chance. Watch and see though.

[TYNI]

April 20th, well this is a surprise. Seems a little early to sustain anything with tropical characteristics... but then again... bears watching closer, and gets our spider sense tingling.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro valid for Friday

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[xironman]

With storms building both east and west now away from the center it could get a subtropical look.

[Crackbone]

Wow, looks like the fun might come a little early this year.

[Ivanhater]

Already 2 invests and still over a month until the start of the 2011 season

[jasons2k]

Already 2 invests and still over a month until the start of the 2011 season

I must have totally missed 90L...wow.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Jason..it was a few weeks ago by the Azores I think..

[Jam151]

Video analysis on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I8ix-ehPHY

[jasons2k]

OH, right! I do remember 90L now.

That's pretty remarkable given that it's only late April.

91L isn't active on the floater site yet, but here's a wider view:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

[SFLcane]

WHXX01 KWBC 201901

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1901 UTC WED APR 20 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110420 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110420 1800 110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.2N 60.8W 23.7N 62.5W 24.1N 64.0W 24.1N 64.6W

BAMD 23.2N 60.8W 24.8N 57.4W 27.5N 55.8W 30.5N 55.2W

BAMM 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 61.1W 25.6N 61.6W 26.9N 61.7W

LBAR 23.2N 60.8W 24.1N 60.6W 25.3N 60.7W 26.7N 60.5W

SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110422 1800 110423 1800 110424 1800 110425 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.6N 65.3W 21.8N 68.2W 21.3N 73.0W 21.9N 77.7W

BAMD 33.5N 53.2W 41.4N 38.1W 50.1N 21.3W 55.1N 12.1W

BAMM 27.2N 61.8W 24.8N 63.6W 23.3N 66.8W 23.3N 69.4W

LBAR 28.1N 59.9W 29.9N 56.4W 30.1N 51.8W 30.1N 50.2W

SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 60.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 21.4N LONM24 = 57.6W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM

$$

NNNN

[northjaxpro]

Hello everyone!

I have been away for quite awhile as last month my father passed away. It has been a tough time for me, but I must say that it is great to be back here on S2K!

Well, I see that we have our second invest of the 2011 season already. Wow! I haven't been paying attention to what has been happening out there lately for the obvious reason. However, the fact that we have something of interest to watch out there in mid-April is rather amazing.

If 91L can somehow hold together and avoid getting ripped apart by the shear the next few days, it may have a fighting chance to get labeled to subtropical status. We'll wait and see.

[TYNI]

Video analysis on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I8ix-ehPHY

A little OT but...

That was a phenomenal analysis, and every newbie to this site can learn from this type of analysis.

Thank you!!!

Ty

[Ivanhater]

]

[SFLcane]

Dont expect this swirl to be around to long conditions aren't to friendly to say the least...

[Ivanhater]

If anything is to become of this, it will have to do it by Saturday. That is when the models have it the strongest. After that, it will weaken.

[Ivanhater]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[northjaxpro]

Ivan, it appears 91L has a brief window of opportunity to organize a bit as the environment will become marginally conducive through Friday.

[HURAKAN]

20/1745 UTC 23.0N 60.8W ST1.5 91L -- Atlantic

1st classification, 25 knots