WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

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#181 Postby oaba09 » Sun May 08, 2011 6:23 pm

It's weird because PAGASA already removed the signal warning for metro manila and yet we're still experiencing strong winds...
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

#182 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 08, 2011 6:48 pm

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#183 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun May 08, 2011 7:37 pm

it's turning more northerly than previously thought isn't it..?? will it even make landfall??
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#184 Postby ManilaTC » Sun May 08, 2011 8:32 pm

oaba09 wrote:It's weird because PAGASA already removed the signal warning for metro manila and yet we're still experiencing strong winds...


Perhaps the storm has already triggered the Southwest Monsoon this early. If this is the case, we are in for an early rainy season.
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#185 Postby Chacor » Sun May 08, 2011 8:42 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 16.3N 122.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 20.6N 121.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 110000UTC 23.8N 123.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120000UTC 29.0N 129.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#186 Postby StormingB81 » Sun May 08, 2011 9:07 pm

I wonder since they are calling between 45-55 knot winds if they will put us under any tccor's in Okinawa just in case.
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#187 Postby StormingB81 » Sun May 08, 2011 9:56 pm

BTW it looks to be looking better the last couple of hours..and I see now they have the forecast for stronger winds...Its trying to become the first typhoon of the year although unlikely...what do you guys think?
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

#188 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 08, 2011 10:10 pm

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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

#189 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 09, 2011 12:12 am

I believe Aere PEAKED at typhoon strength of around 65-70 knots sustained 1 minute while east of manila. CI and ADJT# showed Aere reaching 4.0-4.5...





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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

#190 Postby dexterlabio » Mon May 09, 2011 1:01 am

We felt strong winds around midnight and there have been strong gusty winds until the morning. Rains are on-and-off, not as heavy as yesterday. At this time, the sky is still dark with some drizzles and moderate breeze. If Aere is already in North Luzon then maybe it's the tail-end of the storm affecting us or the enhanced SW monsoon. (by the way, is it possible that the SW windflow blowing as early as May?)

I also agree with euro6208. I saw a microwave image of Aere last night and I believe there was a small "eye" present there. It could be somewhere near typhoon strength at some point.
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

#191 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon May 09, 2011 1:10 am

Video Update for today, sadly up to 9 reports of Deaths at this time, wide spread flooding as well. Glad you hear you all have power that are on right now. Seen a lot of reports of blackouts as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVZTjnVctKw[/youtube]
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#192 Postby StormingB81 » Mon May 09, 2011 2:55 am

Okinawa has now been placed in TCCOR 3
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#193 Postby oaba09 » Mon May 09, 2011 2:56 am

Great video rob!
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#194 Postby oaba09 » Mon May 09, 2011 2:57 am

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Re:

#195 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon May 09, 2011 3:01 am

StormingB81 wrote:Okinawa has now been placed in TCCOR 3



Wow, that is surprising but I guess better safe than sorry. Kadena currently forecasting a max of 30G45 kts overnight on the 11th.
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Re: Re:

#196 Postby StormingB81 » Mon May 09, 2011 3:03 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Okinawa has now been placed in TCCOR 3



Wow, that is surprising but I guess better safe than sorry. Kadena currently forecasting a max of 30G45 kts overnight on the 11th.



and JTWC has it at about 45G55 right before it hits us so I guess we will just see..but those are kinda different.
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#197 Postby StormingB81 » Mon May 09, 2011 3:27 am

Still awaiting the update from JTWC..seems they are a little behind this one..but thats expected with it being busy out there..
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#198 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon May 09, 2011 3:56 am

Well the update technically isn't to be released until 1800I. (09Z) Usually they try to get it out early though.



But I take back thinking Okinawa wasn't going to get much from this storm, that very well could be a bust. Still 2 days out now but TS strength winds really could cause a threat.

Then really long out could see some high winds up here in Yoko.


======

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.4N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.0N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED OVER EASTERN
LUZON AND THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, TS 03W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TS 03W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIGHT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) BEGIN TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TS 03W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A GALE-
FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. HOWEVER, NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM EARLIER AND TRACKS IT
SLOWER TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF TRACK
TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS DURING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN
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#199 Postby oaba09 » Mon May 09, 2011 4:01 am

This is one slow moving system...
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

#200 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon May 09, 2011 4:08 am

Kadena 5 Day

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