WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[oaba09]

^Looking good...I'm still waiting for more conclusive tracks...It will most likely affect Visayas and southern luzon...

[dexterlabio]

[Extratropical94]

JTWC 1400Z:

WTPN21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041351ZMAY2011//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 128.8E TO 12.6N 125.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
128.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
128.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 051104Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LLCC
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
050904Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE LLCC POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

JMA's 1800Z summary lists it as a tropical depression, the third of the year.

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 128E WNW SLOWLY."

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

[HURAKAN]

large and broad circulation

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well finally got around to making another video for this system, I made to give storm2k a shout out.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spxwL8KQnc8[/youtube]

[phwxenthusiast]

great video as always!! yeah, i also think it will track parallel to the coast, if not make a landfall somewhere in E. Luzon...

[Infdidoll]

Great video! It is HUMID here today! Starting to get hot and sticky and feel like typhoon season. Wind shear isn't having me all that convinced much is going to come of this past the Philippines other than a lot of rain.

Rob - LOVE that you are taking on earthquakes, too! We had one about 8:21 local time here in Okinawa this morning. 5.6 in magnitude, 11 km deep. Been wondering if this fault line near Okinawa was going to start showing some activity soon.

[dexterlabio]

the circulation is reorganizing. I'm too excited about this and I've been expecting it to be a TD since yesterday. The LLCC became partly exposed so I thought that the TCFA on this invest will be cancelled.

This invest should hurry up though cause the shear in the Philippine Sea is becoming quite unfriendly.

[dexterlabio]

If you take a look at this sat loop, you can see a good spin east of Samar island.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

[dexterlabio]

Well I think it's a typo but take a look at the NRL page of 93W (or 03W )
http://199.9.2.143/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?SIZE=Thumb&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=wp&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20110506.0449.aqua.x.vis1km.03WTHREE.25kts-1004mb-113N-1287E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=wp031&ATCF_DIR=1&ACTIVES=11-WPAC-03W.THREE,11-WPAC-94W.INVEST,11-IO-96B.INVEST&MO=MAY&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2011&YR=11&BASIN=WPAC&STORM_NAME=03W.THREE&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/WPAC/03W.THREE/vis/modis/1km&TYPE=vis&PRODUCT=vis&SUB_PROD=modis&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km&PROD=vis

I didn't expect it to become a TD for now cause the circulation has just started to reorganize. As I said, it could be a typo.

[dexterlabio]

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351Z MAY 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 060447Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOW A STRENGTHENING,
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FRAGMENTED,
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO INCLUDE A 06/0108Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 05/2140Z
WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER; A SHIP
REPORT AT 06/00Z, WEST OF THE CENTER, PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NOW AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH WINDS OF
360/20 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1003.5 MB. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING BROAD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE TOO LOW AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONAL DATA. TD 03W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO RE-CURVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE UNTIL
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW
MECHANISM AS WELL AS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER LUZON AND MAINTAIN AT WEAK TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND
INTERACTION WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 051351Z MAY 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 051400). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z,
070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Okinawa may have to look at this although I dont see it becoming to strong but who knows.

[Chacor]

Don't think Okinawa has too much to worry about if it takes the JTWC's forecast track. Taiwan would kill it.

[ManilaTC]

ECMWF remains to be the track outlier in this one, tracking it near Bicol and into Central Luzon...

[dexterlabio]

It could go a bit closer to Central Luzon but I still expect it to track northwards then following that trough somewhere in China (?)


The thick convection has been staying in Western Visayas for days. No news about the rains in that area but it seems that Samar got soaked so much.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.3N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.5N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.4N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 128.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z
AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

track

[HURAKAN]

TXPN23 KNES 061506
SIMWIR

A. 03W (NONAME)

B. 06/1432Z

C. 11.7N

D. 127.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 40 NM (74 KM).

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[HURAKAN]

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