WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.6N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.9N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.7N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 124.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[senorpepr]

Plenty of rainfall throughout the Philippines. You don't need glasses... Catarman received 29.56 in (751 mm) of rainfall since 03/00Z.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Infdidoll]

Winds really picking up here. I think I underestimated this storm a little. Now I'm doing the last-minute clean-up because things went flying. Gusts of 37 mph were reported on one of the bases, but probably higher where I live. We're right on the water and just get battered by winds.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I am rather confident now in this storm going NW of Okinawa putting them in the Right Front Side, so winds likely will be a little higher than the original forecast.

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[senorpepr]

Plenty of rainfall throughout the Philippines. You don't need glasses... Catarman received 29.56 in (751 mm) of rainfall since 03/00Z.

Here is the latest image covering rainfall from the 3rd to the 11th.

[Infdidoll]

So far lots and lots of rainfall with this storm. Hardly any visibility, right now. The winds have died down here, right now. This morning was about the most wind we experienced. Right now just heavy downpours. Be interesting to see how much rainfall totals are after this. Not experiencing any thunder, lightning, or notable winds. Sure is a wet storm!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my latest and last update on this storm, just a quick forecast for Okinawa and a look back at how it effected the PI.

Senorpepr I hope you don't mind I used your graphic you made here in this video. I made sure to mention where it came from though.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMTfZ6QEOkc[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like center is passed now, should see some rapid clearing in Okinawa now..

[HURAKAN]

Not much left

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think we can put the nail in the coffin on this one, looks about over with.

[senorpepr]

Here is my latest and last update on this storm, just a quick forecast for Okinawa and a look back at how it effected the PI.

Senorpepr I hope you don't mind I used your graphic you made here in this video. I made sure to mention where it came from though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMTfZ6QEOkc

I don't mind at all, Rob. Outstanding video as always.

[cycloneye]

Final Warning

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 29.8N 132.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8N 132.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 33.1N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.2N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 30.6N 133.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) O3W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. AN 11/1715Z AMSR-E 89H MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
INDICATES A LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. TS AERE IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A REGION OF UNFAVORABLY LOW (20-23 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND UNFAVORABLY HIGH (35-45
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ET WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Kadena says they recieved 1.08 inches of rain..I must say I am about 40 minutes north of that and I believe we had more rain then that...guess it was just where you were.

[Chacor]

Cycloneye, as I've pointed out many, many times over the years, JTWC isn't the official warning centre for the basin, so regardless of whether they issue a final warning, which they sometimes do even while storms are at TS or higher, it's still the RSMC that should be watched until their own last warning.

In this case, it happens that the JMA downgraded Aere to a TD at 1800 UTC and stopped issuing warnings. However, it might continue as a TD in their marine high seas warnings, so it's best not to say "final warning" unless prefaced with a note that it's JT's final warning, but not official.

Rant over.