WPAC: INVEST 94W

#1 Postby **Extratropical94** » Thu May 05, 2011 3:03 pm

And another one...
4.3°N, 144.3°E
15 knots - 1010 mbars

Infrared:

Infdidoll · #2 Postby **Infdidoll** » Thu May 05, 2011 7:56 pm

ECM model has this one starting to gain some steam around May 15th, closer to the Philippines. This might be one to watch if it holds together and if the area continues to stay low shear.

phwxenthusiast · #3 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Fri May 06, 2011 12:01 am

this one looks more interesting to me, to be honest... and as the above poster said, the EURO has picked up on it too, together with the other models so looks like another fun week ahead... :roll:

EDIT (3am EST)...

eerie forecast from the EURO tonight... a strong TS (possibly a TY??) barreling towards Visayas... tsk, tsk, tsk...

Infdidoll · #4 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri May 06, 2011 2:11 am

Yes! I just saw that! The latest EURO update has this REALLY developing and cutting across the central Philippine islands. :eek:

Might want to get the typhoon kits together a little early down there this season!

phwxenthusiast · #5 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Fri May 06, 2011 2:30 am

what makes this scarier is the fact that it's the summer season and i'm pretty sure beaches in Visayas are packed right now (Boracay comes to mind) so if a tropical storm does impact the area, it'll be a big problem for sure...

we still have a week to go though so i'm just hoping it recurves or dies out :roll:

dexterlabio · #6 Postby **dexterlabio** » Fri May 06, 2011 2:42 am

(edited)

Sorry, the post I made earlier should be on 93W. My bad. :lol:

Another one coming? WPAC is starting to roll up.

phwxenthusiast · #7 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Fri May 06, 2011 2:45 am

i think you're on the wrong thread my friend...

dexterlabio · #8 Postby **dexterlabio** » Fri May 06, 2011 3:16 am

These are the euro models. So it seems that the system could affect Visayas, Mindanao and parts of Southern Luzon if the forecast turns out right.

Not good for the people in Visayas. It's been raining hard on some portions of Visayas and Bicol for days because of 93W's circulation. Still has a long way to go, so let's just see what it does.

#9 Postby **oaba09** » Fri May 06, 2011 4:44 am

Possibly our 1st major typhoon of the season....I guess I'll be in "typhoon watching mode" in the next couple of days...

#10 Postby **ManilaTC** » Fri May 06, 2011 8:47 am

Well, well... as expected for a declining La Nina period, TC's pop up!
Taking a line from the great one (The Rock that is...)

Finally... TC activity HAS COME BACK!!!... to the WestPac!

phwxenthusiast · #11 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Fri May 06, 2011 2:09 pm

well at least the EURO has kinda backed away from its 00z forecast.. will it continue to be that way or will it show a TS again on its next run, who knows?!?! 8-)

Infdidoll · #12 Postby **Infdidoll** » Fri May 06, 2011 8:41 pm

Wow...They really backed away from this one, quick. I'm glad you posted those pictures, dexter. It shows we weren't crazy and that the EURO did predict a strong tropical cyclone. LOL

dexterlabio · #13 Postby **dexterlabio** » Fri May 06, 2011 8:54 pm

^No problem. :lol:

Euro models have been doing well with their medium-range forecasts. As far as I remember, the euro models got the track right for storms like Parma and Mirinae in 2009. Well, not for the long-range ones.

Many things can happen in the coming weeks. All we can do now is to wait and observe...and focus our attention to the tropical storm right beside PI. :lol:

#14 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon May 09, 2011 3:12 am

not to be forgotten JTWC upgrades to poor

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.4N 142.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 090408Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC AND A 090006Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WEAK
CIRCULATION WITH WESTERLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

#15 Postby **oaba09** » Mon May 09, 2011 8:08 am

PAGASA is now closely monitoring this invest

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 09, 2011 8:23 am

Latest

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 09, 2011 8:24 am

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wcpac/flash-rgb.html

Nice rotation

#18 Postby **GCANE** » Mon May 09, 2011 3:17 pm

FIM is spinning it up and tracking toward Japan.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011050912&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&resizePlot=1&domain=w_pacific&wjet=1

Pretty good mid-level PV already.

phwxenthusiast · #19 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Mon May 09, 2011 3:51 pm

yeah, FIM has been depicting for days now... EURO 12z is also showing it too... heading close to the Philippines...

PV, Polar Vortex?? can you please explain what it would mean??

#20 Postby **GCANE** » Mon May 09, 2011 5:16 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:yeah, FIM has been depicting for days now... EURO 12z is also showing it too... heading close to the Philippines...

PV, Polar Vortex?? can you please explain what it would mean??

It is potential vorticity.

It is a good way to describe a TC in an expanding tropopause, allowing it to spin up.

Also, latent heating helps to push the PV circulation to the surface.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_vorticity

WPAC: INVEST 94W

WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

Re:

Who is online