WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[Chacor]

I wish it weren't so dark out there, right now, or I could have some pretty good video of the waves we are getting right behind my house. I've been staying the heck away from those windows, though. The glass is actually bowing...and here I'm wondering about tensile strength, etc. and how much force they can withstand.

Songda is still screaming outside. I need to sleep, but I can't.

Is it just me or did Songda pass MUCH closer to Okinawa than JTWC & JMA's last forecasts predicted?

It seems that Sangda's eye wall is very close to Okinawa in JMA's radar animation.
Sangda is still holding CAT.1 intensity ,but it has begun to transform to an extratropical cyclone.

Well north of Okinawa by now, according to JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/110224l.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

I do want to mention the incredible pace this is taking off at now, sat loop has it almost N of the RYUKU islands already, this is defiantly going to run out ahead of most the models here. Given there is a Jet Max about 70-80kts above it, it'll take off.

[ManilaTC]

O wow Pat, really! I knew they had radars, and look holy cow they work! LOL I remember last year when Megi was headed to Aparri people were noting that the radar there looked terrible with peoples cloth hanging off of it. I guess what I'm trying to say is great! Glad to see it released to the public and I hope that is a sign of things to come!

Still a very intense system though as we continue to watch it decrease in intensity, I still think Okinawa is going to get socked by it. Just hope no one decides to stray outside during the high winds.

haha i know! they posted this on their twitter page last night!! they also posted their Subic Radar although it didn't pick up Songda, probably just rains from the monsoon...
http://twitpic.com/5366rd

i do hope they do real time next time not just the entire loop after the storm passes, it'll be much more helpful that way...

anyway any word from typhoon hunter (James)?? i heard he's going to okinawa??

I dunno but I gave them a tweet if when they are going to put the radars online...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Model consensus starting to sway towards JTWC's track a little more it seems. To be honest from the apparent direction it is headed now on the sat loop and radar loops it may even go farther SE than JTWC's track while it transitions to ET.

Big concern is how it will effect the Kanto area.

[Infdidoll]

There are going to be a LOT of damage reports here. I just walked outside and was shocked by the mess in the manufacturing yard next door. They manufacture these really long steel rods...and those rods are all over the place, now. I can't believe this storm had the power to do that. A satellite dish was thrown into a van's roof downstairs. Some metal fencing torn down, etc....and I just stepped outside for a brief few minutes. I will have to find out what time my husband gets home. Might want to go out and get some video of all the damage.

[artist]

There is going to be a LOT of damage reports here. I just walked outside and was shocked by the mess in the manufacturing yard next door. They manufacture these really long steel rods...and those rods are all over the place, now. I can't believe this storm had the power to do that. A satellite dish was thrown into a van's roof downstairs. Some metal fencing torn down, etc....and I just stepped outside for a brief few minutes. I will have to find out what time my husband gets home. Might want to go out and get some video of all the damage.

Wow! Amazing the power of these things, isn't it?? Glad you didn't have any major damage yourself.
Did you get some sleep? Will look forward to seeing any video you all get. Thanks for keeping us updated.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all.

Hope everyone on Okinawa faired well - sounds like it delivered much more of a punch than expected. Here's a link to raw footage I shot yesterday in Miyako:

http://youtu.be/tSf-bU7z7UM

It was pretty wild here yesterday and all in daytime which was perfect for filming!

[rdhdstpchld]

Well, half a tree fell on my house (I wasn't there - we hunkered down with friends) and the massive pine out front is stripped; sheds were blown apart on base here; doors laying around; lots of trees down, large limbs, etc. 5inch diameters or less just went. I've got a bunch of cleanup ahead but everyone is safe - these buildings really are amazing. It was FREAKY. It was blowing south to north at first, but then I guess the back end came thru and it was blowing north to south -- really interesting. When the "eye" area passed, there had to have been a huge pressure change b/c my eyeballs felt like they were going to break out of my skull -- the pressure in my sinuses was really painful. Wasn't expecting that aspect!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1102 SONGDA (1102) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 30.7N 131.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 34.2N 139.0E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13587264
Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant is not fully prepared for heavy rain and winds of a typhoon heading towards the country, officials admit.

Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), which runs the plant, said some reactor buildings were uncovered, prompting fears the storm may carry radioactive material into the air and sea.

Typhoon Songda is expected to hit Japan as early as Monday.

Fukushima was heavily damaged by the deadly 11 March quake and tsunami.

"We have made utmost efforts, but we have not completed covering the damaged reactor buildings," a Tepco official said on Saturday.

"We apologise for the lack of significant measures against wind and rain," the official added.

Tepco has been pouring anti-scattering agents - such as synthetic resins - around the damaged buildings of reactors one and four.

But some of the buildings still remain uncovered after they were damaged by hydrogen explosions soon after the quake and tsunami struck.

A special adviser to Prime Minister Naoto Kan criticised Tepco, saying that the current safety measures "cannot be said to be appropriate".

Adviser Goshi Hosono added: "We are now doing the utmost to prevent further spreading of radioactive materials".

Typhoon Songda - with winds up to 216km/h (134mph) - was moving north-east and could hit Japan on Monday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

It was unclear whether Fukushima could be directly in the path of the storm.

Tepco and Japan's government have faced widespread criticism - both at home and abroad - over their handling of the Fukushima crisis.

[StormingB81]

WOW!!!! What a night...sorry I lost power...ALOT OF DAMAGE I have seen in just my little area..plenty of trees downm there are street lights down we have traffic lights 45 dogrees off from where they where last night..alot of windshoield shattered by trees..INCLUDING mine...but we are all good. WHat was the highest wind by the way I am curious after I reported Kadena said we would only see 65-85 mph winds

[Chacor]

WOW!!!! What a night...sorry I lost power...ALOT OF DAMAGE I have seen in just my little area..plenty of trees downm there are street lights down we have traffic lights 45 dogrees off from where they where last night..alot of windshoield shattered by trees..INCLUDING mine...but we are all good. WHat was the highest wind by the way I am curious after I reported Kadena said we would only see 65-85 mph winds

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html
Peak sustained was 34 m/s (66 kt; 76 mph; cat 1) gusting to 43.7 m/s (85 kt; 98 mph) at 10:49 pm local time.

[rdhdstpchld]

WOW!!!! What a night...sorry I lost power...ALOT OF DAMAGE I have seen in just my little area..plenty of trees downm there are street lights down we have traffic lights 45 dogrees off from where they where last night..alot of windshoield shattered by trees..INCLUDING mine...but we are all good. WHat was the highest wind by the way I am curious after I reported Kadena said we would only see 65-85 mph winds

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html
Peak sustained was 34 m/s (66 kt; 76 mph; cat 1) gusting to 43.7 m/s (85 kt; 98 mph) at 10:49 pm local time.

This may be true, but I have to say, the strongest winds came after midnight -- easily, and without a doubt.

[Chacor]

Perhaps the weather conditions factored into the impression. Only after midnight (12:20 am local) did Kadena report "heavy rain"; before that only "rain" or "light rain".

[Chacor]

Still alive from both JMA and JTWC.

WTPQ20 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 31.8N 133.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 34KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 34.2N 139.8E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 30.6N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 34.1N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 34.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 133.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.//

[Chacor]

JTWC discussion:
WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, TRAILING
BEHIND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECOUPLED
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE COAST OF KYUSHU.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE DISPLACED
CLOUD SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT APPROACHED FROM THE WEST HAS PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND
ERODED ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS SONGDA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND JAPAN BEFORE DEFLECTING EASTWARD BY TAU 12,
BECOMING FULLLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24. THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC LOW,
HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT AND MAY EVEN REGENERATE SOME
CONVECTION AS JET LEVEL SUPPORT PERSISTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LANDFALL, THIS TIME BRIEFLY JUST SOUTH OF KYOTO. THIS TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH THE
TROPOGRAPHICAL SLOWDOWN AND FOR KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES DURING
RECURVATURE SCENARIOS.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... not much left

[Chacor]

Looks like some deep convection over Fukushima.

[Infdidoll]

The highest recorded gust was close to 113 mph around 10:30 p.m according to Weather Underground. The family and I did a lot of driving around today. Some areas just got hit worse than others probably due to the topography of the island. I don't doubt for a second that winds might have been even higher closer to the coast than they were at the bases or airfields where the wind speeds were recorded due to the damage we saw. My husband said the whole side of the shop he works in was torn off. My neighbor was out cleaning glass off the top of his van. Apparently, the satellite dish broke out the skylight on his van, too. I saw the dent it made, but didn't notice that all his glass was gone. Some huge metal gates that close the parking area to one of the businesses right next door to us were torn off and knocked into the road.

Around Foster, there was concrete ripped up and trees uprooted - a playground had a bolted down bench that was thrown off its supports. A mailbox was torn out of its concrete base. Tree limbs are all over the place. Completely decimated some trees. Lots of businesses missing signs and awnings. Traffic lights are a MESS, right now. Like Storming said, they are all knocked to 45 degree angles which made driving a lot of fun trying to figure out where your stop light was. I went for coffee this morning and was talking with people who said they had no power still. Power was out around Kadena and lots of trees were down. Then, you'd drive to some areas that didn't look affected at all.

I heard Kinser got hit pretty hard, too. A friend said there were some trees on cars and cars that were moved. My own car was moved about a foot from where I parked it, lots of broken glass around it (not sure from what), and some plastic covers mounted over the top of my windows were completely ripped off. Another neighbor's back window was completely shattered, though, so I guess I got lucky. I underestimated this storm and so did a lot of people. Some might think it was a small storm, but you have to note that we are a small, narrow island surrounded by water so there isn't much of any windbreak to allay the damage and we don't have a massive landmass to absorb the storm. The only thing that saves Okinawa is that things here are built well. I would HATE to see a large scale storm hit here from the Western side. I don't even want to think about how bad that would be.

[StormingB81]

Strongest wind was reported by Futenma at 125 MPH! I will have pics up tonight my time..