ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#21 Postby Florida1118 » Mon May 23, 2011 9:39 pm

Its losing frontal attachments, Pressures are lowering (From 1011mb to 1008mb), and its winds are at 30mph now. Looking good to me.

8pm Discussion-

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 70W CONTINUE TO SUPPORTS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N54W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS 1009 MB...CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PAIRED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 39W-53W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

23/2345 UTC 27.3N 53.5W ST1.5 92L -- Atlantic

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Last edited by Florida1118 on Mon May 23, 2011 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 9:44 pm

23/2345 UTC 27.3N 53.5W ST1.5 92L -- Atlantic

no change
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#23 Postby tailgater » Mon May 23, 2011 11:46 pm

I was just looking at the sat pics of the Caribbean and this caught my eye. I'm gonna have to see what the models are doing with this one. it's invest season already I guess.
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#24 Postby fci » Mon May 23, 2011 11:47 pm

If 92L is moving either not at all (latest) or E/ESE (earlier today when the STWO was issued); then why does the map graphic at the top of the page have it moving W/WNW?

It's early and I am out of practice so maybe I am looking at the map wrong? :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#25 Postby ROCK » Tue May 24, 2011 12:48 am

CMC has been showing this for a few days now.....I just kind of dismissed it due to all the tornadic activity. Looks decent for being way out there over rather cool ssts.....
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#26 Postby KWT » Tue May 24, 2011 5:03 am

Convection has improved and its a little closer then it was yesterday, still clearly got a frontal system attached to it for now and very likely still cold cored...but it is moving in the right direction right now.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 24, 2011 6:11 am

Image

Latest ... not much to see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#28 Postby plasticup » Tue May 24, 2011 7:24 am

tailgater wrote:I'm gonna have to see what the models are doing with this one.

Not much. This is about as developed as they make it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Models

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 24, 2011 7:32 am

Nothing pointing towards development in this new run by the Bams.

478
WHXX01 KWBC 241224
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1224 UTC TUE MAY 24 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110524 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110524 1200 110525 0000 110525 1200 110526 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 55.0W 27.6N 55.2W 27.1N 55.6W 27.0N 55.6W
BAMD 28.2N 55.0W 25.9N 53.5W 24.1N 49.8W 24.6N 45.2W
BAMM 28.2N 55.0W 26.8N 54.4W 25.8N 53.0W 26.0N 51.1W
LBAR 28.2N 55.0W 27.0N 53.5W 26.3N 52.4W 26.4N 51.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110526 1200 110527 1200 110528 1200 110529 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.1N 55.8W 27.7N 56.7W 28.4N 58.1W 29.1N 60.1W
BAMD 26.3N 42.6W 28.8N 41.4W 29.8N 41.3W 30.8N 40.4W
BAMM 26.7N 49.7W 28.2N 48.6W 29.5N 49.6W 30.8N 51.7W
LBAR 27.3N 50.6W 29.3N 50.7W 30.6N 52.7W 32.5N 55.7W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.2N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 150DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 29.8N LONM12 = 56.2W DIRM12 = 151DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 31.7N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 24, 2011 7:43 am

Image

Latest
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Re:

#31 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue May 24, 2011 8:01 am

fci wrote:If 92L is moving either not at all (latest) or E/ESE (earlier today when the STWO was issued); then why does the map graphic at the top of the page have it moving W/WNW?

It's early and I am out of practice so maybe I am looking at the map wrong? :double:


The purple line on the map is 92L's past track not it's future one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#32 Postby clfenwi » Tue May 24, 2011 8:22 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
910 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE...AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL RESUME ON JUNE
1.

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#33 Postby KWT » Wed May 25, 2011 5:28 am

Yeah looks like this one is just about dead and buried, not that it got very far in the first place to be fair!

Had it been September/October it'd have had a far better chance of developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 25, 2011 11:49 am

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201105251239
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Next!
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