ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 11:19 am

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surprise!!
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ATL: INVEST 92L-Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2011 11:37 am

507
WHXX01 KWBC 231555
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1555 UTC MON MAY 23 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110523 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110523 1200 110524 0000 110524 1200 110525 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.1N 56.5W 28.2N 54.8W 27.9N 54.6W 27.6N 55.0W
BAMD 28.1N 56.5W 27.6N 52.6W 27.7N 50.4W 28.2N 49.4W
BAMM 28.1N 56.5W 27.8N 53.8W 27.3N 52.7W 26.8N 51.6W
LBAR 28.1N 56.5W 27.7N 53.3W 28.1N 51.1W 29.2N 50.0W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110525 1200 110526 1200 110527 1200 110528 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.3N 55.5W 27.8N 56.2W 29.2N 57.3W 30.3N 59.2W
BAMD 28.8N 49.1W 30.2N 48.5W 31.2N 48.9W 32.7N 51.1W
BAMM 26.9N 50.8W 28.7N 49.5W 30.5N 50.7W 32.4N 54.0W
LBAR 31.0N 49.7W 34.8N 51.0W 37.2N 52.8W 38.9N 55.5W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 17KTS 16KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 17KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 56.5W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 29.0N LONM12 = 60.0W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 65.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 11:42 am

Image

another great image of the system
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#4 Postby KWT » Mon May 23, 2011 11:43 am

Yeah that is a bit of a surprise I've gotta be honest, not really heard anything about this, mind youI've been too busy looking at the WPAC.

Unlikely to do anything in that position but then again its early in the 'season' so to speak and transition systems do happen from time to time so I'll not rule it totally out...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#5 Postby wxman57 » Mon May 23, 2011 11:44 am

I'm sure that they're just doing a bit of limbering up with a real live low pressure area out there. Development chances look slim.
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#6 Postby KWT » Mon May 23, 2011 11:46 am

Yeah wxman57, a nice bit of testing can be done with this system before the real fun and games begin some point in the near future.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 11:46 am

Image

tight center
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2011 12:09 pm

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#9 Postby floridasun78 » Mon May 23, 2011 12:24 pm

i supprise to see area as invest but nhc saw something we didnt know
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 12:41 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 12:44 pm

Image

Latest infrared
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Re:

#12 Postby KWT » Mon May 23, 2011 12:56 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i supprise to see area as invest but nhc saw something we didnt know


Well its one of those systems that could possibly go sub-tropical, it does happen from time to time...however its just as likely a case that the NHC are just 'testing' things out for the season with a real low pressure system that is out there.

Looks totally cold cored for now though...
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 23, 2011 1:46 pm

23/1745 UTC 28.0N 54.6W ST1.5 92L -- Atlantic

25 knots
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2011 2:33 pm

18:00z Best track

AL, 92, 2011052318, 01, CARQ, 0, 280N, 548W, 25, 1008, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Models

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 23, 2011 2:56 pm

The 12z ECMWF shows the low pressure in the next 24 hours,but weakens after that.

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#16 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 23, 2011 4:41 pm

First time in a long time that an invest didn't have a thread on it beforehand. We're losing it. :lol:
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Re:

#17 Postby KWT » Mon May 23, 2011 4:46 pm

HURAKAN wrote:23/1745 UTC 28.0N 54.6W ST1.5 92L -- Atlantic

25 knots


I'm surprised they have given it ST status, I know its just estimates but it really doesn't look much like even a slightly warm cored system to me, then again these systems are best not judged by what they look like most of the time.
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Hurricane

#18 Postby Hurricane » Mon May 23, 2011 5:20 pm

:eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion

#19 Postby Hurricane » Mon May 23, 2011 5:23 pm

Image
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 8:10 pm

I was too focused on the severe weather to even bother to look here.
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