WPAC: INVEST 90W

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WPAC: INVEST 90W

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun May 29, 2011 7:28 am

Next one, this time it is located in the South China Sea west of Luzon

12.9 N, 117.0 E

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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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#2 Postby Chacor » Sun May 29, 2011 7:35 am

GFS not expecting much of this.
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#3 Postby WALL-E » Sun May 29, 2011 9:30 am

90W was born in monsoon trough,so water was full enough.
Outflow from high level anticyclone was not bad.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 29, 2011 11:27 am

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#5 Postby WALL-E » Sun May 29, 2011 11:35 am

So far ,it seems that it has been well organized.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby Typhoon10 » Sun May 29, 2011 8:15 pm

HKO appears to have it developing into something minor in the next 48 hours

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nhm/nhmsfcpp48e.htm
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 29, 2011 10:41 pm

Next Name: Sarika - Singing bird
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 29, 2011 11:36 pm

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#9 Postby KWT » Mon May 30, 2011 7:19 am

The models don't seem all that keen on this system...it does have a decent look circulation and the structure isn't bad either at this stage.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon May 30, 2011 7:34 am

GFS on the system taking it N, do want to mention though they keep the intensity very light.

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#11 Postby KWT » Mon May 30, 2011 9:12 am

Were the GFS does develop it more then the ECM, both models aren't exactly keen on strengthening it much though...
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 30, 2011 10:51 am

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#13 Postby KWT » Mon May 30, 2011 11:41 am

The structure of the system is quite obvious looking at that Hurakan, still the convection needs to improve.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 30, 2011 5:26 pm

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Latest, convection has increased
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 30, 2011 8:58 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Mon May 30, 2011 9:08 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
117.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DEVELOPING OVER A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS RAPIDLY
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. A 301357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
15-20 KNOT NORTHEASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK AND 15 KNOT
SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD LLCC WITH 5-10 KNOT
WINDS AT THE CENTER. WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING IS EVIDENT IN A 301749Z
AMSRE PASS, WHICH ALSO SHOWS DRY COLD AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OVER HAINAN, IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#17 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue May 31, 2011 3:26 am

Upgraded to TD by JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 19N 116E NORTH 10 KT.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby P.K. » Tue May 31, 2011 4:12 pm

18Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 117E NNE SLOWLY
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 31, 2011 5:52 pm

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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 31, 2011 6:41 pm

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