ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah the system really has moved fast in the last 24hrs, that s what happens when you have a strong upper high nearby to swing it westwards.

[srainhoutx]

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

[wxman57]

Big question is whether that blob of squalls north of the weak circulation near 25.5/88W will make it to southeast Texas or dissipate and re-fire farther south closer to the circulation. I'm not holding my breath.

[lrak]

It looks like the northern blob is moving away and the southern blob is starting to spin a bit. Is that what you just said wxman?

[thetruesms]

This

does not really help


this



I mean, I wasn't really expecting it, but it would have been nice. And from the fire side, lightning-started fires have probably outweighed any benefit from the rain that fell, so work continues to stay busy for me.

[lrak]

The visible satellite indicates organization, will this bottom half hit the TX coast? Our locals are finally displaying a chance of rain this weekend.

[drezee]

The convection is not as concentrated as yesterday, but the low level organization is much better. Yesterday, it clearly elongated SW to NE. It is a tight little swirl now.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[HURAKAN]

a lot of dry air

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

Attractive storm. later in the season this would probably blow up quickly. Poor Texas, can't catch a drop of rain.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://i.imgur.com/HxjSE.jpg
This

does not really help

http://i.imgur.com/ecB8x.png
this



I mean, I wasn't really expecting it, but it would have been nice. And from the fire side, lightning-started fires have probably outweighed any benefit from the rain that fell, so work continues to stay busy for me.

Those graphics are really crazy. It's almost exactly the opposite. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like that before.

[South Texas Storms]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

Attractive storm. later in the season this would probably blow up quickly. Poor Texas, can't catch a drop of rain.

No kidding. We could really use some rain here. If we don't get any soon, it is going to be a brutally hot summer.

[SouthFloridawx]

355
ABNT20 KNHC 021755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[tropicwatch]

This

does not really help


this



I mean, I wasn't really expecting it, but it would have been nice. And from the fire side, lightning-started fires have probably outweighed any benefit from the rain that fell, so work continues to stay busy for me.

It is a shame that it was so far south, we could use whatever rain we can get in the panhandle.
http://tropicwatch.info

[Nimbus]

I've seen small systems get sheared apart by hostile trade winds, run into cold SST's etc. but I think this is the first that simply evaporated. Look at all that juice in the Caribbean if some of that gets pulled up into the gulf Texas will be all set.

[drezee]

The convection is not as concentrated as yesterday, but the low level organization is much better. Yesterday, it clearly elongated SW to NE. It is a tight little swirl now.

I see that the NHC agreed.

[KWT]

Yeah the swirl looks decent enough today but convection is weaker, probably a good job this system is moving as fast as it is and also its not a few months later otherwise we'd probably have seen something from this.

Unusual track to say the least!

[lrak]

NHC raised it to 10% rather than 0% this morning.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 93, 2011060218, , BEST, 0, 240N, 899W, 20, 1013, LO

latest

[Portastorm]

NHC raised it to 10% rather than 0% this morning.

Hate to be a pessimist Karl ... but other than some cloud cover on the patrons at Pier 99 eating their oysters, not sure the good folks of Corpus will see much out of this. Wish it was different.