ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Yeah thats a good point, even if it were to make it to Texas, its so small that only a small area would benefit...I suspect it ends up going towards the south of the state...

[Ev1948]

We had clouds, but not one drop of rain here in east central Florida..

[KWT]

The system sorta fell apart as it went inland then as the system reached the waters near W.Florida it blew into life again.

[xironman]

Looks better going off than it did coming in.

[AdamFirst]

We had clouds, but not one drop of rain here in east central Florida..

It clouded over for like 30 minutes here at noon. Otherwise it's been sunny.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO=Down to 10%.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.

FORECASTER BLAKE

[wxman57]

Looking at the ground truth (surface obs, which are numerous in the area), the disturbance is definitely less organized than 24 hours ago. The LLC which was east of FL has dissipated. There's no longer any evidence of a surface circulation. Obs in the eastern Gulf don't indicate anything significant. It's just a very fast-moving convective complex this evening.

At the rate the leading edge of the convection is moving (25 kts), it will reach the lower to middle Texas coast on Friday morning by sunrise rather than Friday afternoon. Development chances very slim.

[lrak]

Any luck for Corpus Christi, it looks a little bigger than it was in the Atlantic?

We are racing RC cars in what used to be a grass backyard.

[CrazyC83]

It almost looks like a west-moving squall line...

[gsytch]

We had two bouts of storms from this, the second being far stronger. I live right where it went off into the Gulf...New Port Richey/Tarpon Springs. The stronger second hit was around 330pm. Winds were 40mph or so, 1 1/2" of rain fell in less than an hour. Such welcomed rains as it has been bone dry hot and sunny for weeks. Texas - keep your fingers crossed! Hope it hits you, too. That is almost 2" of much needed rain.

[HeeBGBz]

That little storm is haulin across Florida and into the gulf. What an interesting start to the season.

[Nikki]

We had two bouts of storms from this, the second being far stronger. I live right where it went off into the Gulf...New Port Richey/Tarpon Springs. The stronger second hit was around 330pm. Winds were 40mph or so, 1 1/2" of rain fell in less than an hour. Such welcomed rains as it has been bone dry hot and sunny for weeks. Texas - keep your fingers crossed! Hope it hits you, too. That is almost 2" of much needed rain.

Believe me this Texan has her fingers crossed we will get some rain!!

[otowntiger]

We got 1.78 inches today at my house in Orlando! Awesome. Just what the doctor ordered except most of it happened inside of 30 minutes, not exactly a gentle soaking.

[Rgv20]

Discussion from the NWS Brownsville

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
729 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.UPDATE...A RARE UPDATE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NHC AND
WFO BRO IS MONITORING A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS NON TROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 25 MPH BUT
COULD TURN MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NUMERICAL
AND HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THIS TREND FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE APPROACHING SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATER FRIDAY AND SPREADING MOISTURE INLAND
SATURDAY IF IT SURVIVES ITS TRIP ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THE ADDED
TROPICAL MOISTURE WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THIS SAID ADDED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.

[GeneratorPower]

That little storm is haulin across Florida and into the gulf. What an interesting start to the season.

Yeah. But it's one of those giant blobs of convection which looks oh-so-round and drives me crazy. Still, interesting though.

[Terry]

Here is the storm coming across Tampa Bay to the northern tip of Anna Maria Island.




Here is the view to the west. It was like a normal summer clash of the sea breeze fronts as it hit us, but from a slightly different direction.

[JonathanBelles]

This blob is haulin' t-shower!

Hopefully 93L will hold up long enough that recon will go tomorrow and long enough that you Texans will get some t-shower!

My mention of 93L, the record heat, the Caribbean Disturbance, and tonight's tornadoes across the US: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/ .

[loon]

man.. that thing may be in Mexico by tomorrow at this rate.. its really hauling butt.

[Weatherfreak000]

tailgater we need more than a tropical wave to help us out around ascension. Of course it would be a good start but we need a good multi day soaking. I wouldn't even care if it came way by a cat 1 or weak 2 as dry as things are right now.

I hear you on that. Here in New Orleans the temperature has been downright trifling. The news reported a lady leaving her baby in a car for 8 hours during NOLA heat and died. As terribly irresponsible or cruel as that lady was, man it was been HOT and no rain in sight.


I'm on board for a June TS strike....if he/she were a fast mover.