NIO: DEPRESSION (01A)

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.2N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.6N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY, 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED EYE FEATURE WITH GROWING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FEEDER BAND. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE GUJARAT PENINSULA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.
THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON
THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND RELIES HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102221Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 062230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Already posted that above, Hurakan.

[HURAKAN]

Already posted that above, Hurakan.

sorry, didn't see it! oops

[KWT]

Most unusual presentation salmon123, I'd imagine that whilst convection is very weak in the center of circulation, it probably has a very small area of 40-45kts winds.

[HURAKAN]

a lot of dry air near and to the north of the circulation

[supercane]

WTIO31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.7N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.3N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 71.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WANING OVER A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN AN 111532Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SHIP REPORTS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING THE 111532Z
SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN
111430Z DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM KNES AND STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 01A CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN INDIA. GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION
BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
LIKELY DUE TO WIDELY VARYING REPRESENTATIONS OF THE CYCLONE
STRUCTURE IN THE ANALYSIS FIELDS OF EACH MODEL. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE
AND ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN.
HOWEVER, THE TRACK FORECAST IS A FASTER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PAST MOTION AND A STRONGER EXPECTED STEERING
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN



TPIO10 PGTW 111813
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (NW OF MUMBAI)
B. 11/1730Z
C. 20.5N
D. 70.7E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .20 WRAP, RESULTING
IN DT OF 1.0. PT WAS AT 1.5, WHILE MET WAS 1.0. PT USED TO
DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

From IMD (http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm):
ARB 01/2011/02 Dated: 12.06.2011

Time of issue: 0130 hours IST

Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-Gujarat coasts.

The depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of yesterday, the 11th June 2011, near lat. 20.00 N and long. 71.50 E, about 180 km northwest of Mumbai, 150 km of southeast of Veraval and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It may intensify further and move slowly northwestwards initially.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Konkan, Saurashtra and south Gujarat region during next 36 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls may also occur over Konkan during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy fall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra during next 36 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off Maharashtra – south Gujarat coasts during next 48 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 12th June, 2011.

[Grifforzer]

Pakistan Meteorological Department
http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Tcyclone-video/admin/main.php

A well marked low pressure area has again intensified into a depression (strong weather system) and lies at 20.0N 70.5E 560 km southeast of Karachi. It is likely to move northwestward during the next 36 hours.

Under the influence of this weather system, rain with dust-thunderstorms is expected along Sindhr coast from Sunday evening.

The sea conditions is expected to remain rough to very rough in northeast Arabian Sea and the fishermen of Sindh are advised not to venture in open sea on Sunday and Monday.

[brunota2003]

I remember seeing similar with a depression in the Atlantic, it appeared to have an eye. I still have the paper with the image on it somewhere. I remembered thinking how unusual it was, but perhaps it was just an area devoid of convection.

[ugaap]

This Bulletin from IMD...... its not yet 0830 IST though !

ARB 01/2011/03 Dated: 12.06.2011

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST


Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-Gujarat coasts.


The depression over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra-south Gujarat coasts remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 12th June 2011, near lat. 20.00 N and long. 71.50 E, about 180 km northwest of Mumbai, 150 km of southeast of Veraval and 700 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan). It would move in northwesterly direction towards Saurashtra coast.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu and south Gujarat region during next 24 hours. Isolated heavy fall would occur over Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra during next 24 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off Maharashtra – south Gujarat coasts during next 36 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off these coasts.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 12th June, 2011.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared image

[supercane]

WTIO31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.9N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.6N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING 111920Z TRMM, 112109Z
AMSU-B, AND 112115Z AMSU-B PASSES, AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN
112030Z DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM KNES AND CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST IS SHEARING MUCH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM INTENSIFYING. TC 01A IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12 SHOULD
RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN POOR AGREEMENT, LIKELY DUE TO WIDELY VARYING REPRESENTATIONS OF
THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AMONG THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z.//
NNNN
[/URL]

[Chacor]

Landfall made, IMD has issued its final warning.

[supercane]

Text of IMD statement Chacor is referring is below. Interestingly no coordinates provided. Very low winds:
WTIN20 DEMS 120610
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC OF 12 JUNE, 2011 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 12 JUNE, 2011 (.)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF
MAHARASHTRA-SOUTH GUJARAT COASTS MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSSED SAURASHTRA COAST ABOUT 25 KM EAST OF DIU( 42914)
IN THE EARLY MORNING AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 12 JUNE 2011, ABOUT 70 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AMRELI
( 42834). IT WOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS OF 0300 UTC AROUIND SYSTEM CENTRE ARE AS
FOLLOWS.
STATION MSLP(HPA) WIND(KNOTS)
DIU (42914) -- 270/06
VERAVAL (42909) 1001.2 W/05
AMRELI (42834) 1000.6 SE/05
MAHUVA (42837) --- S/05
BHAVNAGAR(42838) 1002.2 SW/10
PORBANDAR(42830) 1001.3 NW/15
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION (CTT MINUS 77 DEG C) LIES OVER ARABIAN SEA
BETWEEN LAT 16.5N TO 21.0N AND EAST OF LONG 65.5E.
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM=

Latest satellite imagery not quite as definitive as IMD's statement would indicate:


Last satellite bulletin from JTWC still had estimated center south of Kathiawar peninsula:
TPIO10 PGTW 120613
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (NW OF MUMBAI)
B. 12/0530Z
C. 20.0N
D. 69.9E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED A
1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

But satellite estimates for this system very uncertain, as shown by AMSU microwave estimate below, so IMD smart to use surface obs as well:
11/0509 UTC 19.7N 72.1E AMSU 98A -- Arabian Sea

[salmon123]

As per GFS forecast system can not survive more ... it will either dissipate or lose strength
all the forum members Agrees? hurakan, chacor, supercane kwt all plz ..

[supercane]

Well, JTWC issued their last advisory at 9Z, not because they analyzed the system overland as IMD stated but because the circulation was weakening over water, similar to your reasoning:
WTIO31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.3N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
WARMED AS FEEDER BANDS BEGAN TO FALL APART. THE INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND
FROM A 120148Z WINDSAT SCATTEROMETRY GRAPHIC. MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGES INCLUDING A 120502Z AMSU-B PASS SHOW DECREASED REFLECTIVITY
VALUES INDICATING REDUCED INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REORIENTED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BEGUN TO DRAG ALONG THE COAST OF THE GUJARAT PENINSULA. IN VIEW OF
THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 12 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE VORTEX WESTWARD. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
ALONGSIDE BUT SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

In any event, yes, this appears over. IMD declared they were done with it, SSD's latest satellite bulletin had the center overland, and JTWC could not even identify a center with their latest bulletin.
TXIO21 KNES 120846
TCSNIO
A. 01A (NONAME)
B. 12/0830Z
C. 21.2N
D. 70.5E
E. FIVE/MET-7
F. OVERLAND
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER HAS MOVED OVER LAND BUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM (56 KM).
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

TPIO10 PGTW 121513
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01A (NW OF MUMBAI)
B. 12/1430Z
C. XX.X
D. XXX.X
E. N/A/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

[salmon123]

well thanks supercane ...