NIO: DEPRESSION (01A)

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Re: NIO: INVEST 98A

#81 Postby ugaap » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:21 am

WTIO21 PGTW 082230
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082221Z JUN 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 082230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 18.7N 69.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 082032Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 092230Z.
//
9811060606 177N 718E 25
9811060612 177N 718E 25
9811060618 174N 716E 25
9811060700 171N 713E 25
9811060706 171N 711E 25
9811060712 171N 708E 25
9811060718 171N 704E 25
9811060800 175N 701E 25
9811060806 182N 700E 25
9811060812 186N 699E 25
9811060818 187N 698E 30
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#82 Postby supercane » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:53 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
69.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091308Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CURVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND AND TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. 091200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SYSTEM BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. MEAN SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) AT MUMBAI, INDIA IS NEAR 1000 MB, AND A NEARBY
SHIP REPORTED 1007 MB MSLP WITH 24 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 082230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Latest Dvorak classifications T1.5 from both SSD and JTWC:
TPIO10 PGTW 091833
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98A (W OF MUMBAI)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 18.2N
D. 70.4E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .30 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL CURVE YIELDS 1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

TXIO21 KNES 091507
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98A)
B. 09/1430Z
C. 18.6N
D. 69.7E
E. THREE/MET-7
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMI
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 5/10 FOR A DT OF 2.5 BUT FT IS
BASED ON PT OF 1.5 BECAUSE POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR. MET IS 1.0.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 40 NM (74 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/1142Z 18.7N 70.3E SSMI
...TURK

And latest from IMD:
WTIN20 DEMS 090600
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 09-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.
YESTERDAY'S WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS.
IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONVECATIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA AND CENTRAL & NORTH BAY OF BENGAL.
RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 15.0ON
OVER INDIAN REGION=
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#83 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:23 pm

http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Tcyclone-video/admin/main.php

Pakistan Meteorological Department
----------------------------------

Yesterday's Depression (Strong Weather System) is very likely to intensify into a tropical cyclone during next 24-36 hours. The sea surface temperature and other meteorological parameters indicate that suspected tropical cyclone may further intensify on Saturday/Sunday and generally move northwesterly.

Under the influence of this tropical cyclone, widespread heavy rain associated with dust-thunderstorm are expected along Sindh-Makran coast from Saturday evening to Monday. (June 11-13). Heavy rain may cause urban/flash flooding in southern Baluchistan and lower Sindh during this period.

The sea conditions along Sindh-Makran coast is are also expected to be rough to very rough from Friday. The fishermen who are in open sea should return to coast by Friday. All fishermen of Sindh and Baluchistan are advised not to venture in open seas from Friday to Monday.
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#84 Postby supercane » Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:48 pm

TCFA reissued:
WTIO21 PGTW 092230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
REISSUED//REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082221JUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 18.4N 70.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092032Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LLCC WITH A
SHALLOWER AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A 09/1651Z METOP-A 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 09/1714Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG (30-35
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE ZONAL
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE HIMALAYAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE. THE 09/12Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT MUMBAI,
INDIA HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 100O MB DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MAXIMIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102230Z.//
NNNN
Image

SSD Dvorak stuck at T1.5.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2030 UTC 19.0N 70.9E T1.5/1.5 98A
09/1430 UTC 18.6N 69.7E T1.5/1.5 98A
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#85 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:10 pm

Image

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Re:

#86 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:59 pm

supercane wrote:
SSD Dvorak stuck at T1.5.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/2030 UTC 19.0N 70.9E T1.5/1.5 98A
09/1430 UTC 18.6N 69.7E T1.5/1.5 98A


Shame that the IMD is ignoring this system. T1.5 is usually when they issue the depression status of a cyclone.
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#87 Postby supercane » Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:16 am

T1.5 is SSD's Dvorak, but IMD may share the opinion of JTWC, which thought it was T1.0:
TPIO10 PGTW 100041
A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98A (W OF MUMBAI)
B. 09/2330Z
C. 18.7N
D. 70.8E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP TOO WEAK TO OBTAIN DT
BASED ON LOG 10 SPIRAL. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.0 WRAP. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

SSD, on the other hand, has held steady with T1.5 for 18hrs now.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/0230 UTC 19.2N 71.2E T1.5/1.5 98A
09/2030 UTC 19.0N 70.9E T1.5/1.5 98A
09/1430 UTC 18.6N 69.7E T1.5/1.5 98A
09/0830 UTC 18.4N 69.7E T1.5/1.5 98A

We'll see IMD's 0600 daily update soon to get their impression on 98A.
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#88 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:12 pm

Pakistan Meteorological Department
http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Tcyclone-video/admin/main.php

Yesterday's depression (Strong Weather System) still persist in northeastern Arabian Sea at 19.0N 70.5E or 600 kilometers southeast of Karachi, Pakistan. Its chances to intensify further is meager at present. However, under its influence widespread rain associated with gusty wind expected along Sindh coast from Sunday to Tuesday and along Baluchistan coast from Monday to Wednesday.

The sea conditions have already become rough in northeastern Arabian Sea and fishermen of Sindh are advised not to venture out in open sea from Saturday to Tuesday. However, fishermen of Baluchistan may continue their activities up to Sunday.
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#89 Postby supercane » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:40 pm

Still waiting to see if JTWC will reissue the TCFA. Based on their 1800Z update, probably.
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.2E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A
101255Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES SPOTTY
CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION CURVING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE WEST. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD
ZONAL AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED BY THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE HIMALAYAS. 101200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTHEAST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT MUMBAI, INDIA IS NEAR 1000
MB, WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS
CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 092230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

TXIO21 KNES 102158
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98A)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 19.6N
D. 71.4E
E. FIVE/MET-7
F. T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...FT IS BASED ON DT WHICH 1.0 BASED ON 1/10 BANDING POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN 40 NM (74 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/1715Z 19.6N 71.5E AMSU
...SWANSON
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#90 Postby supercane » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:59 pm

TCFA reissued, although JTWC does not appear too keen on this actually developing.
WTIO21 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
REISSUED//REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092230JUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 19.4N 71.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092032Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING NEARER TO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SAME IMPEDIMENTS TO DEVELOPMENT THAT HAVE
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST WEEK (STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE) ARE
CONTINUING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEVELOPED. ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, THE RESULT OF A MADDEN-
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT, ARE SUSTAINING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS MEANDERING UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS, THE NET MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE COASTAL DRIFT IS A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE 2 MB 24 HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS AT MUMBAI, INDIA. A 101651Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT A SHIP
REPORT FROM 50 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SHOWS ONLY 20 KNOTS. THE
101200Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN THE AGGREGATE, THERE HAVE BEEN VERY LITTLE
CHANGES TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST WEEK, WITH A
NEARLY EVEN BALANCE BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTAL
FACTORS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ABOVE 35 KNOTS, BUT RATHER TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND BEGIN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE
TO THE COMPETING DYNAMICS, HOWEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. R, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN
IN A STEADY-STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. DUE TO THE PRESENT
INTENSITY AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112230Z.//
NNNN
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Re: NIO: INVEST 98A

#91 Postby P.K. » Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:49 am

SAB Dvorak bulletin just out. The JTWC were at T1.5 at 06Z.

TXIO21 KNES 110840
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98A)

B. 11/0830Z

C. 19.7N

D. 71.9E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...AMAZING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 6HRS WITH THE APPEARANCE
OF AN EYE FEATURE IN LOW WARM TOPPED CONVECTION. BANDING OF DEEPEST
CONVECTION WRAPS SOLID .4 TO .45 FOR DT OF 2.5. HOWEVER...BANDING OF
THE LOWER WARMER CONVECTION YIELDS .7 WITH A BREAK ABOUT .5 AND SHEAR
METHOD WITH CENTER .75 DEGREES FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALL YIELD SOLID
2.5... GIVING ENOUGH CREDIBILITY TO DEVELOP SYSTEM 1.0 IN 6HRS EVEN
IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGES. MET WAS 3.0. PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NM (37 KM).

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0249Z 19.6N 72.0E TMI
11/0509Z 19.7N 72.1E AMSU


...GALLINA
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#92 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Jun 11, 2011 4:43 am

Image

Wierd. Like a strengthening tropical storm was decapitated by upper level shear, revealing a strong low level center and shear-enhanced thunderstorms to the west. I've never seen one like this before.
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#93 Postby salmon123 » Sat Jun 11, 2011 4:52 am

ya its really very fast intensification...
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Re: NIO: INVEST 98A

#94 Postby salmon123 » Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:55 am

Is it an Eye Wall ?



Image
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#95 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:04 am

It's an eye feature certainly, SAB indicated as much in its satellite bulletin.
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#96 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:40 am

TPIO10 PGTW 111207

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98A (NW OF MUMBAI)

B. 11/1130Z

C. 19.9N

D. 71.7E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. SHEAR TECHNIQUE YIELDED A
2.0 DT MET AGREES. PT INDICATES A 4.0 DUE TO WEAK CNVCTN
WRAPPED AROUND A WELL DEFINED LLCC. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


QUAST

So according to the JTWC's Dvorak analysis, their data-T and ME-T both at 2.0 (30 kt) in accordance with shear technique, but their PT came out to 4.0 (65 kt)! Very intriguing system.
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#97 Postby supercane » Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:00 am

JTWC started issuing advisories on this:
WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.2N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.6N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 71.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY, 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED EYE FEATURE WITH GROWING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FEEDER BAND. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN INDIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE GUJARAT PENINSULA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36.
THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON
THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND RELIES HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102221Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 062230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

Image

Latest SSD Dvorak T2.5/2.5:
TXIO21 KNES 111459
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98A)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 20.3N
D. 71.5E
E. THREE/MET-7
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .3 WH BAND. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT. BAND WITH 2 BREAKS WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 BUT DVORAK BASED SHORTER
WH BAND AS BREAKS ARE TOO BIG. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM (56 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

Image

No advisories from IMD, earlier daily update taken from IMD website at http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm (can't find an update of WTIN20 DEMS from usual sources):
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 11-06-2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.
ARABIAN SEA:
YESTERDAY’S WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS.
ASSOSIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION (CTT MINUS 72 DEG C) OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 17.00 N TO 20.50 N EAST OF LONG 68.00 E (.) SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBDDED ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER REST EAST COAST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 14.00 N EAST OF LONG 71.50 E (.)

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY EAST CENTRAL BAY BETWEEN LAT 15.00 N TO 17.00 N EAST OF LONG 90.00 E (.) NORTH ANDAMAN SEA GULF OF MARTABAN TENASSERIM COAST ARAKAN COAST BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE TO CONVECTION OVER REST BAY REST ANDAMAN SEA(.).
RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 22.0°N OVER INDIAN REGION.

Pakistan Meteorological Department also not issuing advisories at this time; see http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Tcyclone-video/admin/main.php, which headlines (transcribed from the following jpg http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Tcyclone-video/TCnew6.jpg)
Tropical Cyclone weakening in Arabian Sea
None of the Areas of Pakistan coast are under Threat

Yesterday's Depression (Strong weather system now lies a s a well marked Low
Pressure in Northeast Arabian Sea at (19.5°N and 70.2°E) 550 Km Southeast
of Karachi. It is likely to move Northwestwards during next 36 hours.
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#98 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:04 am

Quite an interesting tropical system. I wonder if it will attain the name "Keila" before landfall over the Gujarat peninsula.

PS: I'm a newbie here :D
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Re: NIO: INVEST 98A

#99 Postby P.K. » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:14 am

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-06-2011

Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1500 utc OF 11 June, 2011 based on 1200 UTC of 11 june, 2011 (.)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF MAHARASHTRA-SOUTH GUJARAT COASTS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH JUNE 2011, NEAR LAT. 20.00 N AND LONG. 71.50 E, ABOUT 180 KM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 150 KM OF SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780). IT MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON SURGE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION (CTT MINUS 77 DEG C) LIES OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 16.5N TO 21.0N AND EAST OF LONG 65.5E

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 240N. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 300-320 C OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 60 KJ/CM2 OVER THE REGION WHICH DOES NOT FAVOUR INTENSIFICATION.

THE MJO IS LYING IN PHASE 4, BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE (>1), ACCORDING TO BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL FORECASTS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING NEXT 3-4 DAYS. IT MAY NOT BE FAVOURABLE FOR AMPLIFICATION OF CONVECTION AND HENCE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO CONSENSUS BY THE NWP MODELS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AND MOVE INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HRS.
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#100 Postby supercane » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:20 am

Welcome to Storm2K, jaguarjace. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is the RSMC responsible for naming systems in the North Indian Ocean, but IMD has a reputation for underestimating storm intensity compared to other agencies. Given JTWC's intensity forecast and the 10-min conversion, it may be difficult for it to be named. At least IMD updated their outlook and upgraded the system to a depression. Whatever eye-like feature that was visible earlier appeared to be transitory, as there is no evidence for an eyewall on latest microwave imagery.
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