NIO: DEPRESSION (01A)

[salmon123]

IMD AWAKENED ..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.



ARABIAN SEA: -
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER ARABIAN SEA OFF MAHARASTRA COAST HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. THE VORETEX IS THE INSAT IMAGERY IS CENTRED NEAR 19.0N/71.5E WITH INTENSITY T 1.0. THE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION INTO DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS IS FAIR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA (CTT MINUS 80 DEGREE CELCIUS) NORTH OF LAT 12.5N EAST OF LOG 68.0E ADJOINING EXT S GUJ ADJOINING GULF OF CAMBAY KKN(.)

[alhddar]

fxio40 egrr 060600

met office tropical cyclone guidance for north indian ocean

global model data time 00utc 06.06.2011

tropical storm developed in the model analysis at position : 18.3n 71.7e

verifying time position strength tendency

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00utc 06.06.2011 18.3n 71.7e weak

12utc 06.06.2011 17.7n 71.8e weak little change

00utc 07.06.2011 17.5n 70.5e moderate intensifying slightly

12utc 07.06.2011 17.7n 70.5e moderate intensifying slightly

00utc 08.06.2011 18.1n 70.0e strong intensifying slightly

12utc 08.06.2011 18.4n 70.1e strong intensifying slightly

00utc 09.06.2011 18.9n 70.2e strong little change

12utc 09.06.2011 19.6n 70.2e strong intensifying slightly

00utc 10.06.2011 20.1n 70.1e strong little change

12utc 10.06.2011 20.5n 70.1e strong intensifying slightly

00utc 11.06.2011 21.0n 69.7e strong weakening slightly

12utc 11.06.2011 21.5n 69.2e strong intensifying slightly

00utc 12.06.2011 22.1n 69.4e strong weakening rapidly

this information is provided as guidance for tropical cyclone

rsmcs. It requires interpretation by tropical cyclone specialists

and should not be considered as a final product

met office, exeter, uk

too 06043

[alhddar]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 06-06-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.

ARABIAN SEA: -

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER ARABIAN SEA OFF MAHARASTRA COAST HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. THE VORETEX IS THE INSAT IMAGERY IS CENTRED NEAR 19.0N/71.5E WITH INTENSITY T 1.0. THE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION INTO DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HRS IS FAIR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA (CTT MINUS 80 DEGREE CELCIUS) NORTH OF LAT 12.5N EAST OF LOG 68.0E ADJOINING EXT S GUJ ADJOINING GULF OF CAMBAY KKN(.)


RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 21.0°N OVER INDIAN REGION

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
72.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 70.7E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION NEAR A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 061325Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK
BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH
DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 24
HOURS AGO. MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MSLP OF 1006 MB,
AN INCREASE OF 2 MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 061200Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER A REGION OF MARGINAL
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND DECREASE
IN CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

From medium to low, but old habits die hard!! Oops!! lol

[HURAKAN]

Nice image of the disturbance affecting parts of India

[salmon123]

SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH-WESTWARD .. now developing chances goes higher..

[salmon123]

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
70.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 70.9E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071313Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DISTURBANCE WITH DRY AIR WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. A 071238 WINDSAT
PASS REVEALS A CIRCULATION WITH 10-20 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY BUT ONLY WEAK EASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS,
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED POOR. MUMBAI SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MSLP OF 1004 MB, AN INCREASE OF 1 MB IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE 071200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT 98A REMAINS SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS UNDER A REGION OF 5-15 KNOTS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONFLUENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS
TO BE INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Still firing some convection on latest IR:



...but still disorganized with convection sheared off to the west per Dvorak:
TPIO10 PGTW 080023
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98A (S OF GULF OF KHAMBHAT)
B. 07/2330Z
C. 17.1N
D. 70.2E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. SHEAR TECHNIQUE USED, WITH CNVCTN
MEASURED 89NM FROM CENTER. THIS YIELDS A 1.0DT. NO MET, AS THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. ALSO, NO PT BECAUSE IT
DOESN'T MATCH ANY OF THE PATTERNS. DT USED TO DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

And just for fun, info on the Gulf of Khambhat per Wikipedia.

[HURAKAN]

the circulation looks great

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
70.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
INTENSE COVECTION CONSOLIDATING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE LLCC IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS DISPLACED 60-90 NM DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LLCC. A 071612Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS ONLY 10-15 KNOT EASTERLIES
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION BUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES
ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. AN EXPECTED MJO EVENT LATER THIS WEEK WILL
ACT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON OVER THE
NORTH ARABIAN SEA. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUBSIDENCE AND PRONOUNCED
DRYING IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE 20TH PARALLEL. THE
BOUNDARY LEVELS ARE ALSO DRY NORTH OF THE 2OTH PARALLEL, AS
REVEALVED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, HOWEVER, REVEALS THAT
THE ANTICPATED WARMING AND COLLAPSE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM IS NOT OCCURING. THERE NOW
EXISTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CONSOLIDTION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[supercane]

This thing cannot maintain convection. Just like that, poof again:


Dvoraks up and down accordingly, currently down:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0830 UTC 18.9N 70.5E TOO WEAK 98A
08/0230 UTC 17.9N 70.4E T1.0/1.0 98A
07/0230 UTC 16.9N 71.2E TOO WEAK 98A
06/2030 UTC 16.7N 71.0E T1.0/1.0 98A

and latest ASCAT no longer showing clear circulation:


The IMD's take:
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 08-06-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC.

ARABIAN SEA: -

YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NOW LIES AS A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SAME REGION.

VORTEX OVER ARABIAN SEA CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF 17.5N/70.0E (.) CENTRE IS BETTER SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IS OBSERVED IN THE SYSTEM (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN INT TO V INT CONVTN (CTT MINUS 88 DEG C) OVER ARSEA BET LAT 14.5N TO 20.5N LONG 62.0E TO 69.5E (.) SCTATTERED LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT 8.0N EAST OF LONG 60.0E (.)

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -

BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.5N TO 16.5N WEST OF LONGITUDE 84.5E AND BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.5N TO 21.0N LONGITUDE 85.0E TO 89.0E AND NORTH ADJOINING SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) BROKEEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST NORTH ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY, EXT SOUTH BAY ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN, ARAKAN COAST, GULF OF MARTABAN AND TENASSERIM COAST (.) BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST BAY AND REST ANDAMAN SEA (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 21.0°N OVER INDIAN REGION

[salmon123]

Well losses strength again

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98A)

B. 08/0830Z

C. 18.9N

D. 70.5E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...FT IS BASED ON DT. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NM
(37 KM). BANDING IS TOO DISORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED. THIS IS THE LAST
BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[ugaap]

As per IMD 0800 UTC:

The well marked low pressure area over eastcentral Arabian Sea and neighbourhood persists. The system is
likely to concentrate into a depression during next 1-2 days. A trough from this system extends upto
Lakshadweep area.

Chacor and other experts... your comments on this Low please.

[salmon123]

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
69.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 69.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSE
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 08/1158Z SSMI
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION CURVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND CONVECTION IS ABSENT IN THIS REGION. DESPITE BOTH
WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, CONVECTION HAS STILL PERSISTED.
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST. A 08/0447Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ON ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LLCC BUT ONLY 10-15 KNOTS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

Pakistan Meteorological Department
http://www.pakmet.com.pk/Tcyclone-video/admin/main.php
-----------------------------------

Yesterday's well marked low pressure area in eastern Arabian Sea has intensified into a depression (strong weather system). The current sea surface temperature is favorable for development of this system into a tropical cyclone on Thursday evening. The sea surface temperature from other meteorological parameters indicate that suspected tropical cyclone may intensify further on Friday/Saturday and move in a northwesterly direction.

Based on probable track and estimated intensity, widespread thunderstorm rain with scattered heavy rainfall with strong gusty winds is expected along Sindh-Makran coast from Friday evening.

[ugaap]

ABIO10 PGTW 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/082300Z-091800ZJUN2011//REF/A/MSG/NAVMARCSTCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI/082221ZJUN2011//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1N
69.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 69.8E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 082028Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CURVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (MSLP) AT MUMBAI, INDIA IS 1000 MB, A 2 MB DROP IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. A NEARBY SHIP REPORT MEASURED 1000 MB MSLP AS WELL. THE
LLCC IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28-33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO DECREASING PRESSURES, PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
082230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

karachimetrological.wordpress

(Update 8:00 am June 9)- NEW

The depression ARB 01 is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. The wind shear is very low and the sea temperatures are above than normal. The system is near the Gujarat coast and is moving towards North western direction at 1 knots. Keila will reach Sindh coast by June 10 night and could intensify further on June 11

[Grifforzer]

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 9 2011

Bay Of Bengal
Convective clouds are seen over central and north Bay of Bengal

Arabian Sea
Yesterday's well marked low pressure area over east central Arabian Sea and neighborhood persists. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours