WPAC: SARIKA - Tropical Depression

[ManilaTC]

WTF?

Wind
26 km/h / 7.2 m/s from East Wind
Gust
46 km/h / 12.9 m/s

[dexterlabio]

@ClarkEligue Thanks for the update! I've been wondering where the center of this disturbance is. Do you have a link for the latest sat image? The LLCC's over South Manila right now, no wonder why some gusty winds are picking up here in my area (my town is in the northern part of Quezon City). Good thing that this invest didn't gain strength to develop into a storm or else the metropolis will get a hard hit.

[ManilaTC]

Right over Cavite/Las Pinas area I presume... Moving NNW quite slowly around 7 kph... just my estimate.

[ManilaTC]

Winds have definitely picked up here in Alabang
Rains have been heavy.

Sustained 33 km/h from East
Wind Gust 57 km/h

Tropical Depression? hehehe

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared image

[dexterlabio]

Been monitoring the weather condition thru Facebook. I'm just typing in keywords regarding bad weather then check the place where it's happening. So far many places in Cavite are now experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds. TD-like huh but I think even a weak disturbance can bring out this kind of weather condition.

[supercane]

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 119E NNW SLOWLY.

First SSD Dvorak constrained to be T1.5. Is TCFA far behind?

TXPQ22 KNES 081536
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 08/1432Z
C. 14.1N
D. 120.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE MOVING OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA BAY. CONVECTION IS VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND MEASURES 5/10
IN A TIGHTLY WRAPPED BAND NEAR THE CENTER FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5
FOR THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WHILE PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS WHICH DICTATE THE FIRST CLASSIFICATION BE T1.0 OR T1.5.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM (56 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...TURK

[ManilaTC]

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 119E NNW SLOWLY.

First SSD Dvorak constrained to be T1.5. Is TCFA far behind?

TXPQ22 KNES 081536
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 08/1432Z
C. 14.1N
D. 120.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE MOVING OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA BAY. CONVECTION IS VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND MEASURES 5/10
IN A TIGHTLY WRAPPED BAND NEAR THE CENTER FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5
FOR THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WHILE PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS WHICH DICTATE THE FIRST CLASSIFICATION BE T1.0 OR T1.5.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 30 NM (56 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...TURK

If it wasnt for the constraints, it would be a TD by now.

[supercane]

TCFA issued:
WTPN21 PGTW 082000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 120.6E TO 20.4N 117.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 081732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 13.4N
121.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING BAND OF CONVECTION CURVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
08/1744Z AMSR-E 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. 08/1200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BENEATH A POINT
SOURCE WITH 5-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS
STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092000Z.//
NNNN


18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 119E NW SLOWLY.

PAGASA still designating it as a low pressure area as well.

ASCAT whiffed.

Latest Dvoraks T1.5 from SSD as above, for JTWC, "DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND."

[RobWESTPACWX]

This little invest area just didnt want to go away! He must have watched that youtube video of the little boy giving the insperational speech about riding your bike.

"if you can't do it you keep practicing and you will do it!"

Naa but in all seriosness, thoughts on how intense this will get, my thoughts not to much, I think once it starts moving N its going to smash in the westerlies near the luzon strait and be done.

[oaba09]

Wow, what a cold, windy, and rainy morning we're having....The slow NNW movement means that we'll be experiencing this kind of weather for quite a while....

[ManilaTC]

Wow, what a cold, windy, and rainy morning we're having....The slow NNW movement means that we'll be experiencing this kind of weather for quite a while....

YEAH! Im about to go home from night shift duty... witnessed one heckuva stormy night last night, so the cold, rainy and windy weather will let me sleep tight... aaaahhh...

[dhoeze]

School classes are suspended today over Metro Manila and parts of Southern Luzon.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded via JTWC soon. It really is rapidly intensifying.

[phwxenthusiast]

it's now a TD accdg to JTWC... 25/35kts...

rain reports in Luzon range from 50-150mm as of 00z...

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951Z JUN 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 119.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 119.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.4N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.3N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.5N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.5N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 119.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 081951Z JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 082000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Surprised there is not that much of a re-curvature over Taiwan, really think in the long run it will veer away from HK and head t hat way.

[HURAKAN]

looks well-organized

[HURAKAN]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 15N 119E NW SLOWLY.

[supercane]

DPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE FORMING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC IS CHARACTERIZED BY
SHALLOW CONVECTION AND LIMITED BANDING. A 082211Z SSMIS PASS ALSO
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH SOME WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS VERY GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS DEVELOPING A CHANNEL OF OUTFLOW INTO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST. ALSO EVIDENT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM AND IS THE INITIAL
FORECAST REASONING.
B. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE ROUNDING THE WELL MODELED WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR BETWEEN
36 AND 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTRLIES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SLOW FOR THIS SYSTEM, AS THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE LOCATION OF THE
TUTT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEMS CURRENT LOCATION. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH NOGAPS, GFS AND UKMET RIGHT IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND
CONSENSUS. JGSM AND WBAR ARE THE EASTERN AND WESTERN OUTLIERS. THE
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS AS THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THAN MOST MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED AT, AND THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD WHERE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
ANALYZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVED OFF OF
THE PHILIPPINES, AND NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH UP.//
NNNN

Latest Dvorak from SSD T2.0:
TXPQ23 KNES 090313
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)
B. 09/0232Z
C. 15.3N
D. 119.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...VERY IMPRESSIVE CURVATURE AND ORGANIZATION OF LLC SEEN
IN TMI AND VIS WITH .55 BANDING MEASURED FOR DT OF 2.5. HOWEVER...EIR
WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL WITH WARM BROKEN BANDED CONVECTION LIMITED TO
.3 YIELDING A DT OF 2.0 IF GENEROUS. MET IS 2.0 FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND PT IS 2.0. GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF DT OVER LAST
18HRS WAS CONSIDERING INCREASE OF FT OF 1.0/6HR BUT GIVEN INCONSISTENCY
IN PRESENTATION ACROSS EACH BAND (VIS AND EIR) REJECTED THE DT AND FT
IS BASED ON MET MAKING A .5 INCREASE IN 6HRS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH
TRADITIONAL DVORAK DEVELOPMENT TREND...PARTICULARLY IN THESE EARLY STAGES.
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NM (37 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...GALLINA