ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#621 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:02 pm

They ran models again on 94L tonight, first time since last night.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bobo2000
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: Ruston, LA

#622 Postby Bobo2000 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:02 pm

This invest could develop off the Gulf Stream and become a depression. I looked at Tropical Depression One of 09' and it faced harder conditions than 94L. Hold on little buddy, you'll get there. Just keep fighting.

______________________________
Do you Smell what he is COOKING
:wink:
0 likes   
_____________________
There can be only one Hypercane.....
:double:

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#623 Postby tailgater » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:57 pm

The 850mb vorticity is the strongest it's been since it's inception.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vorZ.GIF

It just happens to be under the most shear MID\Upper level in the basin.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... idshrZ.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

If it moves northward as progged conditions get SLIGHTLY better
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#624 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:08 pm

Development chances close to zero. Tremendous shear and SSTs drop fast as it moves north. Already in sub-80F water.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bobo2000
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: Ruston, LA

#625 Postby Bobo2000 » Sat Jun 11, 2011 12:41 am

The invest is either going to get swallowed by a extratropical storm or just die out in the cold Arctic waters. :froze:


_____________________________
Do you Smell what he is COOKING?
or Do you SEE ME?
:wink: :double:
0 likes   
_____________________
There can be only one Hypercane.....
:double:

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2856
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#626 Postby supercane » Sat Jun 11, 2011 12:55 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
PRODUCING A AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM
CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#627 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:43 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#628 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:48 am

My poor little friend:

Image
0 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1704
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

#629 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Jun 11, 2011 9:22 am

LOL. 94l has the most persistant little llc I've seen in a while. As long as we have that upper level shear it will never develop. It doesn't look like that has even the slightest chance of happening.

Then again it has been a week now and it's still there.

To be honest though, the Atlantic is still too hostile to permit any development.

And very typical I might add.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#630 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 11, 2011 12:57 pm

Jim, please report again to the 94L headquarters!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#631 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 12, 2011 9:34 am

For the second time is deactivated

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106121416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#632 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:43 am

Even though it has been deactivated, it sure does have a tight LLC, and it is moving to the southeast:

Image
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#633 Postby Frank2 » Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:00 am

At least it's a sheared LLC at this point...

P.S. It did rain early last evening - a good thunderstorm with 2.75 inches of rain to my west, and enough that it put out the Everglades brush fire - guess my nose was a week slow (lol), but more likely it's a good lesson that God send the help when it's needed, and not when we think it's needed - had the rain come last Monday it would have not been at the right time to put out the fire...

I was out at the fire line yesterday morning and the smoke cloud extended up to approximately 10,000 feet...

Frank
0 likes   

User avatar
thetruesms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 844
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:14 pm
Location: Tallahasee, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#634 Postby thetruesms » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:18 am

Frank2 wrote:At least it's a sheared LLC at this point...

P.S. It did rain early last evening - a good thunderstorm with 2.75 inches of rain to my west, and enough that it put out the Everglades brush fire - guess my nose was a week slow (lol), but more likely it's a good lesson that God send the help when it's needed, and not when we think it's needed - had the rain come last Monday it would have not been at the right time to put out the fire...

I was out at the fire line yesterday morning and the smoke cloud extended up to approximately 10,000 feet...

Frank
well, put out is a little strong, but it is nice to have it almost fully contained and move on to mopup with this one.
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests