EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[MGC]

Impressive intensity.....had the look of possibly becoming a major and it happened. Has a outside chance of becoming a Cat-4 but we'll see....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

impressive microwave

[KWT]

It looks impressive, bit of a textbook looking hurricane, pretty small looking core and thin eyewall looking at the microwave, neat looking system.

[CrazyC83]

Based on latest data, I would put the intensity at 110 kt right now.

[supercane]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092032
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

DURING MOST OF THE DAY...ADRIAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WRAPPED BY A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENTLY...THE CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS WEAKENED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE AND A CDO. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS.

THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT
SINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS...TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING FARTHER
WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ADRIAN COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT
WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE RELIABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS
AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.4N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 106.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.0N 107.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 092033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...MAJOR HURRICANE ADRIAN CONTINUES WELL AWAY FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 104.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Extratropical94]

NHC mentions that Adrian is becoming annular...
Wow!
A real surprise storm for this time of year.

[somethingfunny]

AVILA said the word "annular" twice in this discussion....

Adrian sure is a beauty on the visible satellite. AVN infrared looks a bit ragged, the eye isn't as clear as it ought to be.

[KWT]

Just had a look at the Sat imagery, yeah sure does look annular at the moment...VERY interesting evolution from a spiral system to one with no banding at all!

[Macrocane]

Well I understood that Adrian is becoming annular, not that it already is an annular hurricane, I really like when storms are as interesting as Adrian and they don't affect anybody.

[Cookie]

stunning system can't for the life of me understand why thier is more interest in this

[plasticup]

Well, this was unexpected.

Hurricane ADRIAN Update Statement
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive UPDATE

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 092235
TCUEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 130 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[Chacor]

A Cat 4 annular-like hurricane is rare.

[KWT]

Really has turned into an explosive hurricane and a very interesting one, as has been said a cat-4 annular is most unusual!

[Dean4Storms]

Very impressive looking hurricane, glad it is over there though. We can watch it without fretting over the track and potential threat to property and lives. This is how all hurricanes ought to behave!

[MGC]

I for one am not surprized that Adrian has reached Cat-4 intensity. The hurricane is in an ideal enviroment to reach Cat-4 intensity. I though yesterday that it had the looking to reach major hurricane status and Adrian has done just that.....why are ya'll so obsessed with annular hurricanes? I know they are rare but no big deal to me......MGC


Edit: BTW, Cat-4 starts at 131mph....so Adrian is still a Cat-3.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
330 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

CORRECTED INTENSITY WIND SPEED IN MILES PER HOUR

...HURRICANE ADRIAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT OR 135 MPH...
210 KM/H. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

...SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 105.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

impressive system