WPAC: Invest 96W

[supercane]

.96WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-48N-1370E. SE of Koror (Palau), S of Yap

From NWS Guam forecast discussion:
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE NEAR PALAU AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAK CIRCULATION WELL SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND PALAU. MODELS KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT PALAU THROUGH TODAY WITH POSSIBLY A
SMALL BREAK OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GFS continues to spin up around this area.

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4N 114.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OF 1007 TO 1008 MB.
AN ASCAT PASS DEPICTS STRONG WESTERLIES (20 KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND MAINTAINS EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N 137.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED AND UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

00Z GFS output seems too aggressive in developing this. Track seems familiar:

[RobWESTPACWX]

[StormingB81]

Seems like they all wanna do the same thing...IF it develops on does the track and near it

[Typhoon10]

HKO has it developing in the next 72 hrs

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nhm/nhmsfcpp72e.htm

[StormingB81]

Rob where do you get that map..I was trying to look at the pdated one..thanks!

[supercane]

Not Rob, but map source is PSU's Cyclone Phase Evolution page at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/. Pick the model of interest, and then on the model page pick the cyclone number of interest.

[StormingB81]

Thank you very much! I just put rob cause he posted it but from whoever is great...it is much appreciated

[StormingB81]

IF IT DEVELOPS it looks like it maybe a close path like the 2 previous storms to take a path like that

[StormingB81]

Also with that path there is low wind shear and high sea temps...could be one to watch

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<snip>
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
136.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. A
150039Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A PARTIAL LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU INDICATE A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
<snip>
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/60.html

Models have it now going between PI and Taiwan. Just have to see if it does develop and what it wnats to do..I can say myself that it seems the track changes alot between the begining and when it develops....like I said though right now the wind shear is very low and ver ywarm seas..see what happends between this and 97w. going to be an interesting few days see if it develops.

[StormingB81]

It will be interesting what tomorrow brings songda was near the same then they brought the track east....

[RobWESTPACWX]

It will be interesting what tomorrow brings songda was near the same then they brought the track east....

Storming to ask you the same thing about a link, could you post where you retrieved the above image? Thanks!

[StormingB81]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif


and then where you see the date time group I just change that.

[supercane]

.96WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-76N-1347E.

[supercane]

JTWC updated outlook:
ABPW10 PGTW 152030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/152030Z-160600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<snip>
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF CENTER THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND OUTFLOW IN THE REGION IS IMPROVING AS A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
<snip>

[StormingB81]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 132E WNW SLOWLY

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<snip>
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
135.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
<snip>

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just put a video together, made to add storm2k in the tag section on this. Also skip though the first part here, just adding a fluff peace to the video giving there is not much going on.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC4XojI7jo4[/youtube]