WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 523
WTPQ20 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 21.0N 112.6E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 21.4N 109.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 241800UTC 21.0N 106.6E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

i don't know what's more surprising, JMA keeping this a 40kt TS or JTWC classifying this as a 30kt TD??

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 21.5N 111.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 21.3N 108.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 250000UTC 21.0N 106.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =



WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 112.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 112.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.7N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.7N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.5N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.2N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 112.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTHWWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON NEW MICROWAVE SATELLITE
DATA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 221732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND A 221359Z AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.0 FROM PGTW.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED BANDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC AND MULTIPLE SMALL, EMBEDDED VORTICES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS BEGINNING TO DISCONNECT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL REMAINS INTACT. TD 06W IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 AND CONTINUE TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TAU 36 AND TAU 48
FORECAST POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS WARNING BECAUSE PART OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND CONSEQUENTLY DELAY DISSIPATION UNTIL TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z
AND 2301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 230016
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA)
B. 22/2330Z
C. 21.3N
D. 111.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .30 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 026
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 112.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 112.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.6N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.3N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.1N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 111.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-SOUTHWWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

The path this thing is taking from going up down left it is crazy!

[KWT]

Its pretty impressive mreally that its kept itself going given what it has looked like at times...

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 21.4N 109.6E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 21.4N 107.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 188
WTPQ20 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 20.7N 108.9E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 20.7N 106.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[Chacor]

For some reason, restrengthened to 40 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 20.7N 108.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 140NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 20.7N 105.8E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 030
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.6N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.5N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 108.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 240040
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA)
B. 23/2332Z
C. 21.0N
D. 108.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .25 YIELDS A
DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS AT 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[KWT]

Doesn't look at all bad there supercane its got to be said!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 20.3N 106.4E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 70NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 20.4N 103.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 105.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 105.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.4N 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.3N 100.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 104.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD 06W HAS
BEGUN STEADY DISSIPATION AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INLAND AND THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED WILL DROP BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 8 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WTPQ20 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 19.8N 105.2E FAIR
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 20.1N 103.3E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[supercane]

JTWC issued their last advisory on Haima at 21Z, and withthis 00Z advisory JMA both downgrades Haima and writes their last RSMC guidance (although they often will mention a system is a TD in their 6-hourly analyses for at least another day):
WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 20N 105E
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 992HPA =