WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

[ManilaTC]

Hmm looks like IDV is so cool, im gonna get it!

Im really getting a lot from you supercane, i owe you a beer... if you come over to the Philippines hehe.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Also want to note does anyone get the impression that this is drifting farther west than originally forecasted? It looks like it at first glance but it may just be more convection forming on the western periphery thus an illusion that the center is moving that way? Any collaborated thoughts on that?

[oaba09]

Also want to note does anyone get the impression that this is drifting farther west than originally forecasted? It looks like it at first glance but it may just be more convection forming on the western periphery thus an illusion that the center is moving that way? Any collaborated thoughts on that?

Well, the convection is quite massive so it's hard to determine the location of the center....If it is moving farther west than expected then I won't be surprised if we see a landfall on northern luzon...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Also want to note does anyone get the impression that this is drifting farther west than originally forecasted? It looks like it at first glance but it may just be more convection forming on the western periphery thus an illusion that the center is moving that way? Any collaborated thoughts on that?

Well, the convection is quite massive so it's hard to determine the location of the center....If it is moving farther west than expected then I won't be surprised if we see a landfall on northern luzon...

Agreed, I am still set on the track I drew in my video yesterday where there is a landfall just south of Aparri along the North East Coast. But really don't see any high winds coming out of it, a lot of rain over the mountains though.

[ManilaTC]

Is it enough to enhance the Southwest wind flow?

[RobWESTPACWX]

From what I see on obs and the satellite any increase in winds will be more localized from thunderstorms in the higher areas of convection, that could even stretch as far out as Manila though in some of the outer rain bands, I still don't think any destructive winds would occur that far east though.

What are you seeing for winds right now at your local Clark?

[ManilaTC]

Its the rain i'm worried about... More of a flood threat than a wind threat.

Its SO HOT and BALMY right now here in Manila hehe

[oaba09]

From what I see on obs and the satellite any increase in winds will be more localized from thunderstorms in the higher areas of convection, that could even stretch as far out as Manila though in some of the outer rain bands, I still don't think any destructive winds would occur that far east though.

What are you seeing for winds right now at your local Clark?

No winds here yet...It's actually quite hot....I expect the weather to deteriorate probably tonight or tomorrow morning...

[oaba09]

latest from JMA..


TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 18 June 2011
<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Lets re-analyze this again, I'm seeing a very apparent shift to the West Now on satellite imagery, as said before it may be an illusion do to the convection along the western periphery, but current stream line analysis shows that it could be making a turn towards the west now... (not trying to sound any alarms, just trying to understand it.)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... DAYNGT.jpg

[oaba09]

Lets re-analyze this again, I'm seeing a very apparent shift to the West Now on satellite imagery, as said before it may be an illusion do to the convection along the western periphery, but current stream line analysis shows that it could be making a turn towards the west now... (not trying to sound any alarms, just trying to understand it.)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... DAYNGT.jpg

Definitely something to watch out for...as we always say, better safe than sorry...This system may not be that powerful but it seems to have a lot of rain based on the massive flooding that happened on the south...

[oaba09]

pretty big cone in the latest JTWC track


WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.6N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.7N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.1N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.6N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 125.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z
AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed on the large cone, a degree of uncertainty possibly, still think the convection is primary off to the west giving the illusion it is moving ashore, but only to a degree, there is defiantly a NW movement within it.

[supercane]

You're probably right, RobWESTPACWX. If you have anyone in mind.. . Thanks for the links.

ClarkEligue, haven't been in a long time, but will redeem my San Miguel (are there any other brands of beer?).

Latest JTWC prognostic reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 172033Z TRMM
PASS, WHICH SHOWS A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 2.0 AND
2.5 RESPECTIVELY. TD 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. TD 06W SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TREND DRIVEN BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER,
FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTING WITH THE SYSTEM AND MAY ENHANCE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IN THE DAYS AHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, A MIGRATORY UPPER LEVEL,
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST, AND
PASSAGE OVER LAND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER, KEEPING TD 06W WEAK
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYCLE AND STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD WITH LOWER
LEVEL FLOW AS A RESULT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN MODEL GROUPING
CLUSTERED AROUND THE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING AND INTENSITY FORECAST. //
NNNN

Still being sheared from the east. Latest SSD Dvorak:
TXPQ24 KNES 180316
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 18/0232Z
C. 14.0N
D. 126.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS... GREATER THAN .75 DEGREE SHEAR FOR DT=2.0. MET=2.5 WITH
PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/2033Z 12.6N 126.5E TMI
17/2158Z 13.0N 126.7E SSMIS
...SALEMI

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like JTWC is banking on the weakening of the STR and models do show that... it's also interesting how it is forecast to go through Luzon Strait...

[RobWESTPACWX]

ClarkEligue, haven't been in a long time, but will redeem my San Miguel (are there any other brands of beer?).

HA, its funny because its true...

Any how, I was really hoping for a decent ASCAT pass, this one kind of missed the mark.

[HURAKAN]

exposed

[RobWESTPACWX]

Great conversations today in regards to this storm, I made sure to give storm2k a shout out in my video today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhPeTvb7lW8[/youtube]

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 14.4N 125.6E POOR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 17.1N 123.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



ASCAT missed again.

TPPN10 PGTW 180624
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (NE OF MINDANAO)
B. 18/0532Z
C. 14.4N
D. 125.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .25 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 1.5 DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY

[oaba09]

The weather here has deteriorated in the past couple of hours.......based on the sat loops, it seems like the outer rain bands has finally reached us...