WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.6N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 23.0N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.3N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.1N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 124.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. REMARKS: TROPICAL STORM 06W, LOCATED 230 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TS 06W IS STILL
STRUGGLING AGAINST THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) ALONG
THE 20TH LATITUDE, WHICH IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. AN 180929Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF LOW LEVEL
BANDING IS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM, WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT VWS IS HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED BY GUIDANCE. RECENT INFRARED
ANIMATION DOES SHOW SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A BURST OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY SHIP AND LAND REPORTS
PROXIMAL TO THE SYSTEM. TS 06W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS AN AREA OF DECREASING VWS
AND FAVORABLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED RATE OF DEVELOPMENT, BUT OTHERWISE THERE
ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 06W WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW YET STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO THE 30-31
DEGREE WATERS, FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG ITS TRACK. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 06W WILL
ALSO GET A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE TUTT, BUT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TUTT WILL SUPPRESS OUTFLOW AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS WEAKENING PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 48 AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH FALLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT, WITH NOGAPS/GFDN/WBAR TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN LUZON, AND ECMWF, EGRR, AND JGSM MOVING THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTHERN TAIWAN. BASED ON THE INTENSITY OF THE ANTICYCLONE
PLANTED OVER EASTERN CHINA, THE MID-RANGE FORECAST STAYS RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS, FAVORING ECMWF AND JGSM OVER NOGAPS/GFDN AND WBAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. TS 06W WILL BEGIN WEAKENING OVER WATER
NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGH THE LONG RANGES WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HEDGES CONSENSUS TOWARDS
ECMWF AND JGSM.//
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 15.2N 125.2E POOR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 18.0N 123.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
TXPQ24 KNES 181506
TCSWNP
A. 06W (NONAME)
B. 18/1432Z
C. 15.5N
D. 124.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOW ALLOW FOR A DT. PT=2.5. MET=2.5
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/1125Z 15.1N 125.3E TMI
18/1223Z 15.3N 125.4E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
WTPH RPMM 181200
TTT WARNING 08
AT 1200 18 JUNE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST AND AT 201200 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA
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