WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

#101 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:57 am

The fourth TS of the year which puts it pretty much in line with average by now (Long term mean is 3.8 to today). We didn't get to the fourth TS until 8th August last year so a much quicker start to the season.

#102 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:42 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 18.6N 114.4E FAIR
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 20.3N 112.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 231200UTC 21.5N 110.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ30 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.1N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.9N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 113.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. REMARKS: TD 06W REMAINS LOOSELY ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 211019Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE 20-KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL BE HINDERED FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY
MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE NEAR JHAN
JIANG, CHINA, BEFORE TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UKMET TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS TO THE
RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS' UNLIKELY INCURSION INTO THE STR. //
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 211210
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (NW OF LUZON)
B. 21/1132Z
C. 18.5N
D. 114.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. MET INDICATES 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0651Z 18.8N 114.5E MMHS
21/0834Z 18.7N 114.3E SSMI
QUAST

#103 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:14 am

JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 18.5N 114.3E FAIR
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 20.0N 112.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 231200UTC 21.5N 110.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

CMA (20 m/s = 38.8 kt)
WTPQ20 BABJ 211500 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HAIMA 1104 (1104) INITIAL TIME 211500 UTC
00HR 19.0N 115.0E 993HPA 20M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H
P+24HR 20.8N 112.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 22.2N 109.9E 999HPA 14M/S=

HKO's forecast:

[/URL]

Good discussion on latest SSD satellite bulletin:
TXPQ24 KNES 211509
TCSWNP
A. 06W (HAIMA)
B. 21/1432Z
C. 18.7N
D. 115.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/WINDSAT
H. REMARKS...RELATIVELY STATIONARY WELL DEFINED LARGE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING VERY DEEP COLD CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR SOME PERSISTENT SMALL CLUSTERS THAT BAND ON THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE. THESE FEATURES BAND .6 ON LOG10 BUT WITH MULTIPLE
BREAKS IN THE LINE FOR A DT OF 2.5. SHEAR METHOD WOULD ALSO BE IN THE
SAME RANGE. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 2.0... WITH DT NOT CLEAR CUT AND MET NOT
REPRESENTATIVE...FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/0834Z 18.4N 114.9E SSMI
21/1019Z 18.3N 115.0E WINDSAT
...GALLINA

#104 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 3:47 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 18.8N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 20.0N 112.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 231800UTC 21.5N 110.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

#105 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 4:19 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.3N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.8N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 114.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. A 211742Z AMSU PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND TO THE WEST WITH THE CENTER POORLY DEFINED AND DEVOID OF
CONVECTION. A 211302Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30KTS OF WIND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC BUT AT THE CENTER WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT 15-20KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE HAMPERING THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 06W. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASIATIC HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES TO THE EAST AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
MID-PACIFIC HIGH, TD 06W WILL START TO GAIN LATITUDE AND MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

TPPN10 PGTW 211821
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA)
B. 21/1732Z
C. 19.0N
D. 114.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .20 WRAP, RESULTING
IN 1.0DT. MET CAME TO 1.5, WHILE PT CAME TO 2.0. PT USED TO
DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

windysocks · #106 Postby **windysocks** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:51 pm

Really quite windy and rainy here in HK. Surprisingly bad weather for a TD. That's why they have the No. 3 signal up, I imagine.

#107 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 5:54 pm

highest reported winds at Hong Kong (VHHH) only 17kt over past 6 hrs. As windysocks says, from HKO:
Bulletin issued at 06:45 HKT 22/Jun/2011

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kilometres per hour are expected.

At 7 a.m., Tropical Depression Haima was estimated to be about 310 kilometres south of Hong Kong (near 19.5 degrees north 114.3 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast of western Guangdong.

During the past few hours, Tropical Depression Haiman started to take on a more northwesterly track. According to the present forecast track, Hiama will continue to move closer to Hong Kong today, bringing generally strong winds and heavy squally showers to the territory. In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Waglan Island and Cheung Chau were 55 and 45 kilometres per hour respectively.

Unless Haima strengthens significantly with marked changes in its future movement, the chance of issuing a higher tropical cyclone warning signal is not high today.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 3 Signal)

1. You are advised not to delay in taking all precautions to protect your home or property. Make sure now that all loose objects are secure. Porch furniture, flower pots and other objects likely to be blown away should be taken indoors. Check again and make sure all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Storm water drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish, this applies particularly to dwellers in low-lying areas.

3. Since seas are rough and there are swells , you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

4. Engineers, architects and contractors are again reminded that all scaffoldings, hoardings and temporary buildings should be secured.

5. Small craft owners should now complete arrangements for the safety of their boats.

6. Listen to radio, watch TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory's web site for information on the tropical cyclone.

450
WTPQ20 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 19.0N 114.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 20.3N 111.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 231800UTC 21.5N 110.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

TXPQ24 KNES 212204
TCSWNP
A. 06W (HAIMA)
B. 21/2101Z
C. 20.2N
D. 114.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET
IS 1.0 WHILE PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/1825Z 20.1N 115.6E TMI
...TURK

windysocks · #108 Postby **windysocks** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:41 pm

Actually, when I wrote my last post, the wind was tossing the trees around and rain was splattering my window, but it's a lot calmer now!

#109 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:15 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 220037
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA)
B. 21/2332Z
C. 20.2N
D. 113.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .25
WRAP, RESULTING IN 1.5DT. MET AGREES. PT COMES TO 2.0. PT USED
TO DETERMINE FT. POSSIBLE SECOND LLCC LOCATED AT 21.1N 114.1E.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

#110 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:49 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.7N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.3N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.9N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 113.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM THE 21/1800Z POSITION. IT BECAME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM, AND THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WAS MOVED TO THE CENTROID
CENTER AND NOT AN INDIVIDUAL SURFACE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W
(SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

#111 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 9:57 pm

Highest gust recorded so far today in Hong Kong is 120km/h which is around 65kts at Ngong Ping (high ground.) Frequent squalls passing through now and current winds are sustained 45kts at Ngong Ping and 35kts at Cheung Chau island.

HK Airport will be slightly sheltered from SE winds at moment by mountains on Lantau island. Ngong Ping actually more or less overlooks the airport.

#112 Postby **supercane** » Tue Jun 21, 2011 11:28 pm

Stay safe, Typhoon Hunter.

WTPQ20 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 19.9N 113.8E POOR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 20.9N 111.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 240000UTC 21.7N 109.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

HKO upgrades to TS and remains in Strong Wind Signal No. 3:

CMA:
WTPQ20 BABJ 220400
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HAIMA 1104 (1104) INITIAL TIME 220400 UTC
00HR 20.0N 113.7E 992HPA 20M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H=

Latest ASCAT:

TXPQ24 KNES 220311
TCSWNP
A. 06W (HAIMA)
B. 22/0232Z
C. 20.2N
D. 113.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC BASED ON MIDPOINT OF 2 EXPOSED LLVL CIRCULATIONS.
DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 WITH PT OF 1.5. FT IS BASED
ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK

Prognostic reasonings:
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. REMARKS: TD 06W REMAINS A BROAD AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
MULTIPLE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERS ORBITING WITHIN THE BROAD
OVERALL CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION,
BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINS STRONG, BUT THE CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND 20-30KTS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR CONTINUE TO STIFLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX,
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND LOCAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL BE HINDERED FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY
MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATING IN
SOUTHERN CHINA, AROUND TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AS THE ONE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS UNLIKELY INCURSION INTO THE STR.//
NNNN

euro6208 · #113 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:04 am

i am surprised haima strengthen a bit even though i knew it would. haima aiming for southen china lashing them with winds and rain. be safe all and god bless.

#114 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 1:24 am

Thanks supercane!

I'm monitoring this from my apartment about 400m from Victoria harbour on the Kowloon Peninsula. I did go out with the dog this morning for a nice invigorating walk. Lots of white caps and a fair bit of spray in the harbour

windysocks · #115 Postby **windysocks** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 6:40 am

Torrential rain and big gusts in my neck of the woods. At times it looks like a 'real' typhoon!

Chacor · #116 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:25 am

40 kt now.

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1104 HAIMA (1104)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 20.8N 112.7E POOR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 21.7N 109.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 241200UTC 21.0N 106.6E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Typhoon10 · #117 Postby **Typhoon10** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:14 am

I am in Causeway Bay and suprised how windy its been down here as is quiet a shelter area. Notice from HKO's website, top gust at Ngong Ping is now 126kmh with Tates Cairn regularing having gusts of 90kmh, Cheung Chau over 80kmh. It does scare me what it would be like if we have a proper typhoon hit Hong Kong

#118 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:36 am

Latest infrared

#119 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 9:38 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 995.5mb/ 43.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.9 2.9

I don't know why the JTWC has it as a tropical depression.

#120 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2011 3:57 pm

latest infrared

WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

Re: WPAC: HAIMA - Tropical Storm

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