EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106161839
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011061612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922011
EP, 92, 2011061518, , BEST, 0, 121N, 916W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061600, , BEST, 0, 122N, 917W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 918W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 918W, 20, 1008, DB, 0

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Not well organized yet.

[HURAKAN]

Good model support, should be Beatriz in a few days

[cycloneye]

Good model support, should be Beatriz in a few days

And it may threat Mexico,or at least move close to the coast,something that Adrian didn't do.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Bobo2000]

Up to 40%. But it's disorganized, so for my guess, it should be 30%.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 92, 2011061618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 919W, 20, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

First model plots for 92E.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC THU JUN 16 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922011) 20110616 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110616  1800   110617  0600   110617  1800   110618  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  91.9W   13.1N  93.3W   13.7N  94.9W   14.0N  96.9W
BAMD    12.3N  91.9W   12.6N  93.2W   12.7N  94.6W   12.6N  96.6W
BAMM    12.3N  91.9W   12.9N  93.2W   13.4N  94.6W   13.6N  96.4W
LBAR    12.3N  91.9W   12.7N  92.6W   13.5N  94.1W   14.5N  96.5W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110618  1800   110619  1800   110620  1800   110621  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.1N  99.2W   14.4N 103.9W   14.9N 107.4W   15.3N 108.4W
BAMD    12.6N  99.2W   13.3N 105.0W   13.9N 109.8W   13.8N 113.5W
BAMM    13.7N  98.8W   14.3N 104.2W   14.9N 108.8W   14.9N 111.6W
LBAR    15.9N  99.7W   19.8N 106.0W   23.7N 108.4W   28.3N 103.0W
SHIP        49KTS          61KTS          67KTS          58KTS
DSHP        49KTS          61KTS          67KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  91.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
LATM12 =  12.2N LONM12 =  91.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   0KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  91.6W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KWT]

ECM no where near as agressive with this system as it was with Adrian but it does appear that the model does develop something at least.

[sunnyday]

So, are the storms going to be more prevalent in the Pacific than in the Atlantic this year?

[HURAKAN]

computer runs tracks

[HURAKAN]

So, are the storms going to be more prevalent in the Pacific than in the Atlantic this year?

no, the Atlantic should have more storms at the end of the season than the EPAC

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 92, 2011061700, , BEST, 0, 116N, 941W, 20, 1008, DB

[NDG]

Is poor looking for being an orange with no real defined broad center of circulation, and I don't know if it would do much during the next couple of days as gfs shows 20+ knots of easterly shear over the invest during at least the next 2 days.

[supercane]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170538
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING CONCENTRATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171135
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Bobo2000]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171745
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[plasticup]

Models show it spinning up just off the coast in weak steering currents. No certainties, obviously, but definitely a threat to land.

[brunota2003]

Was looking at the MIMIC-TPW for the EPAC (Caution, loop, high bandwidth... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html ), the rotation in the area over the past several hours has picked up a lot.

[MGC]

92E has that broad tumbleweed look...slowly getting better organized....MGC